Download or read book Knowing When You Do Not Know written by Ambar Narayan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. A popular solution is to extrapolate the welfare impact of a shock from the historical response of income or consumption poverty to changes in output, by estimating an 'elasticity' of poverty to growth. Although this method provides an estimate for the aggregate poverty impact of a macro shock, it has limited value for analysts and policymakers alike. Aggregate numbers are useful to capture the attention of policymakers and the international community, but in the absence of any information on who is affected and to what extent, provide little guidance on what actions need to be taken. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a microsimulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Starting with the idea of using simple macroeconomic projections as the 'macro linkages' to a micro behavioral model built from household data, the model was conceptualized, refined and tested in a diverse mix of countries: Bangladesh, Philippines, Mexico, Poland and Mongolia. The results fed into country policy dialogue and lending operations of Bank teams, as well as various reports, research papers and briefs.

Download or read book The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution written by and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the financial crisis has spread through the world, the lack of real-time data has made it difficult to track its impact in developing countries. The authors use a micro-simulation approach to assess the poverty and distributional effects of the crisis. In Bangladesh, Mexico, and the Philippines, the authors find increases in both the level and the depth of aggregate poverty. Income shocks are relatively large in the middle (and, in Mexico, the bottom) parts of the income distribution. The authors also find that characteristics of people who become poor because of the crisis are different from those of both chronically poor people and the general population. Findings will be useful for policy makers wishing to identify leading monitoring indicators to track the impact of macroeconomic shocks and to design policies that protect vulnerable groups.

Download or read book The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution written by Bilal Habib and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the financial crisis has spread through the world, the lack of real-time data has made it difficult to track its impact in developing countries. The authors use a micro-simulation approach to assess the poverty and distributional effects of the crisis. In Bangladesh, Mexico, and the Philippines, the authors find increases in both the level and the depth of aggregate poverty. Income shocks are relatively large in the middle (and, in Mexico, the bottom) parts of the income distribution. The authors also find that characteristics of people who become poor because of the crisis are different from those of both chronically poor people and the general population. Findings will be useful for policy makers wishing to identify leading monitoring indicators to track the impact of macroeconomic shocks and to design policies that protect vulnerable groups.

Download or read book The Great Recession and the Distribution of Household Income written by Stephen P. Jenkins and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The so-called Great Recession that followed the global financial crisis at the end of 2007 was the largest economic downturn since the 1930s for most rich countries. To what extent were household incomes affected by this event, and how did the effects differ across countries? This is the first cross-national study of the impact of the Great Recession on the distribution of household incomes. Looking at real income levels, poverty rates, and income inequality, it focusses on the period 2007-9, but also considers longer-term impacts. Three vital contributions are made. First, the book reviews lessons from the past about the relationships between macroeconomic change and the household income distribution. Second, it considers the experience of 21 rich OECD member countries drawing on a mixture of national accounts, and labour force and household survey data. Third, the book presents case-study evidence for six countries: Germany, Ireland, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and the USA. The book shows that, between 2007 and 2009, government support through the tax and benefit system provided a cushion against the downturn, and household income distributions did not change much. But, after 2009, there is likely to be much greater change in incomes as a result of the fiscal consolidation measures that are being put into place to address the structural deficits accompanying the recession. The book's main policy lesson is that stabilisation of the household income distribution in the face of macroeconomic turbulence is an achievable policy goal, at least in the short-term.

Download or read book Understanding the Poverty Impact of the Global Financial Crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-06-18 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using data from household and labor force surveys, this study documents the effects of the 2008–09 global financial crisis on poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean, the social protection policy responses activated, and a macro-micro modeling of crisis/no-crisis scenarios for Mexico and Brazil.

Download or read book Financial Crises Poverty and Income Distribution written by Emanuele Baldacci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developing and transition economies are prone to financial crises, including balance of payments and banking crises. These crises affect poverty and the distribution of income through a variety of channels: slowdowns in economic activity, relative price changes, and fiscal retrenchment, among others. This paper deals with the impact of financial crises on the incidence of poverty and income distribution, and discusses policy options that can be considered by governments in the aftermath of crises. Empirical evidence, based on both macro- and microlevel data, shows that financial crises are associated with an increase in poverty and, in some cases, income inequality. The provison of targeted safety nets and the protection of specific social programs from fiscal retrenchment remain the main short-term propoor policy responses to financial crises.

Download or read book El Ni o Or El Peso written by Gaurav Datt and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In terms of its impact on poverty, the recent economic crisis in the Philippines was more of an El Niño phenomenon than a financial crisis.

Download or read book The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution in Mongolia written by World Bank and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2008-09 has considerably slowed the pace of economic growth in Mongolia. When combined with the Dzud (severe winter storm) of 2009-10, which occurred just as the economy was beginning to recover and killed over one million heads of livestock, the slowdown is likely to have significant impacts on poverty as well as the distribution of income and consumption among the poor and non-poor. In this paper we examine the poverty and distributional impacts of the crisis in Mongolia, relying on predictions from a simulation model based on pre-crisis data, given that household data to measure impacts during and after the crisis is unavailable. It is difficult to predict the distributional impacts of the financial crisis with a high degree of confidence. Evidence from previous crises suggests that relative inequality falls about as often as it rises during aggregate contractions (Paci et al, 2008). Furthermore, as the crisis spreads within a country (through adjustments in domestic credit and labor markets and fiscal policies), its impacts across different groups, sectors or areas became all the more difficult to track. The paper is structured as follows. Section two outlines the basic methodological approach used to create the simulation results used here. Section three discusses the macroeconomic projections that are used as inputs into the model. Sections four and five examine the model's projections for poverty and distributional impacts respectively, section six discusses the impact of Dzud (severe winter) and section seven concludes.

Download or read book The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Poverty and Income Distribution in Mongolia written by Weltbank and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2008-09 has considerably slowed the pace of economic growth in Mongolia. When combined with the Dzud (severe winter storm) of 2009-10, which occurred just as the economy was beginning to recover and killed over one million heads of livestock, the slowdown is likely to have significant impacts on poverty as well as the distribution of income and consumption among the poor and non-poor. In this paper we examine the poverty and distributional impacts of the crisis in Mongolia, relying on predictions from a simulation model based on pre-crisis data, given that household data to measure impacts during and after the crisis is unavailable. It is difficult to predict the distributional impacts of the financial crisis with a high degree of confidence. Evidence from previous crises suggests that relative inequality falls about as often as it rises during aggregate contractions (Paci et al, 2008). Furthermore, as the crisis spreads within a country (through adjustments in domestic credit and labor markets and fiscal policies), its impacts across different groups, sectors or areas became all the more difficult to track. The paper is structured as follows. Section two outlines the basic methodological approach used to create the simulation results used here. Section three discusses the macroeconomic projections that are used as inputs into the model. Sections four and five examine the model's projections for poverty and distributional impacts respectively, section six discusses the impact of Dzud (severe winter) and section seven concludes.

Download or read book Who Loses in the Downturn written by Herwig Immervoll and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04-15 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains fresh knowledge on the effects of the economic downturn on employment and income distribution. This title also contains research papers offering fresh insights into issues such as how wages, employment and incomes are affected by the crisis, which demographic groups are most vulnerable in the recession, and more.

Download or read book The Impact of Economic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution written by François Bourguignon and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2003 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reviews techniques and tools that can be used to evaluate the poverty and distributional impact of economic policy choices. This title describes the most robust techniques and tools, from the simplest to the most complex, and aims to identify best practices. It also addresses an evaluation technique and its applications.

Download or read book El Ni O or El Peso Crisis Poverty and Income Distribution in the Philippines written by Gaurav Datt and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In terms of its impact on poverty, the recent economic crisis in the Philippines was more of an El Nintilde;o phenomenon than a financial crisis. Using household survey data for 1998, Datt and Hoogeveen assess the distributional impact of the recent economic crisis in the Philippines. The results suggest that the impact of the crisis was modest, leading to a 5 percent reduction in average living standards and a 9 percent increase in the incidence of poverty-with larger increases indicated for the depth and severity of poverty.The greater shock came from El Nintilde;o rather than through the labor market. The labor market shock was progressive (reducing inequality) while the El Nintilde;o shock was regressive (increasing inequality).Not all households were equally vulnerable to the crisis - induced shocks. Household and community characteristics affected the impact of the shocks. Ownership of land made households more susceptible to the El Nintilde;o shocks; higher levels of education made households more vulnerable to wage and employment shocks.The impact of the crisis was greater in more commercially developed communities. Occupational diversity within a household helped mitigate the adverse impact.There is some evidence of consumption smoothing by the households affected by the crisis, but the poor were less able to protect their consumption, which is a matter of policy concern.This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to better understand the social impact of the crisis.

Download or read book Understanding the Poverty Impact of the Global Financial Crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Margaret Grosh and published by . This book was released on 2014-07-17 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents the effects of the 200809 global financial crisis on poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In doing so, it describes and decomposes the effects of the crisis on poverty using data from comparable household budget surveys for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, and labor force surveys for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. The study also provides macro-micro modeling of crisis and no-crisis scenarios for Mexico and Brazil, as well as the big picture and program-specific details of the social protection policy responses for these countries and more. Among the findings are the following. First, the effects of the global financial crisis on those living in poverty were not trivial: more than 3 million people fell into or remained mired in poverty in 2009 as a result of the crisis. Of these, 2.5 million were Mexican. Second, the changes in poverty were driven by changes in labor incomes caused by a variable combination of changes in employment rates and real wages. Third, the macro-micro modeling revealed different adjustment mechanisms but similar final incidence results for Brazil and Mexico. The results were regressive overall, with the middle of the income distribution hit even a bit more than the poor. According to the descriptive results from the larger set of countries, changes in inequality accounted for a tenth to a third of changes in poverty. Fourth, countries were quite active in their social protection policy responses, largely taking advantage of programs built in precrisis years. Social transfers partially offset the lower labor earnings of the poor, although income protection for the unemployed was weak. Finally, overall the policy messages are that good policy helps attenuate the links between a global crisis and poverty in the LAC countries, and many of the important things need to be done ex ante such as dealing with the macro fundamentals and building social protection programs.

Download or read book Inequality Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.

Download or read book Links Between Growth Inequality and Poverty A Survey written by Ms. Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-12 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is there a tradeoff between raising growth and reducing inequality and poverty? This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the complex links between growth, inequality, and poverty, with causation going in both directions. The evidence suggests that growth can be effective in reducing poverty, but its impact on inequality is ambiguous and depends on the underlying sources of growth. The impact of poverty and inequality on growth is likewise ambiguous, as several channels mediate the relationship. But most plausible mechanisms suggest that poverty and inequality reduce growth, at least in the long run. Policies play a role in shaping these relationships and those designed to improve equality of opportunity can simultaneously improve inclusiveness and growth.

Download or read book Banking Sector Crises and Inequality written by Patrick Honohan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An apparent temporary narrowing of income inequality has been observed during several recent banking crises. But it would be a mistake to conclude that such crises don't matter for the poor. For one thing, the correlation is not strong, and the opposite pattern has also been present. Besides, the poor are much less able to absorb a cut in income: safety-net policies are crucial during a downturn even if the gap between rich and poor has temporarily narrowed. More fundamentally, distributional shifts during the crisis may be less important than the fact that underlying financial policy and infrastructures conducive to crisis can also be associated with more unequal societies.

Download or read book The Poverty and Distributional Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks and Policies written by Boniface Essama-Nssah and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The importance of distributional issues in policymaking creates a need for empirical tools to assess the social impact of economic shocks and policies. This paper reviews some of the modeling approaches that are currently in use at the World Bank and other international financial institutions. The specification of these models is dictated by the issues at stake, the knowledge about the nature of the process involved, and the availability and reliability of relevant data. Furthermore, shocks and policies have macroeconomic, structural, and distributional implications. This creates interdependence between such policy issues. Finally, the distributional impact of shocks and policies hinges on the heterogeneity of socioeconomic agents with respect to endowments and behavior. In the end, each modeling approach should be judged on how well it handles the interdependence between policy issues and the heterogeneity of the stakeholders, given other constraints. " -- Cover verso.