Download or read book The Impact of Stock Returns Volatility on Credit Default Swap Rates written by Fathi Abid and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this paper is to study the impact of Stock returns volatility of reference entities on credit default swap rates using a new dataset from the Japanese market. The majority of empirical research suggests the inadequacy of multinormal distribution and then the failure of methods based on correlation for measuring the structure of dependency. Using a copula approach, we can model the different relationships that can exist in different ranges of behavior. We study the bivariate distributions of credit default swap rates and the measure of stock return volatility estimated with GARCH (1,1) and focus on one parameter Archimedean copula. Starting from the empirical rank correlation statistics (Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho), we estimate the parameter values of each copula function presented in our study. Then, we choose the appropriate Archimedean copula that better fit to our data. We emphasize the finding that pairs with higher rating present a weaker dependence coefficient and then, the impact of stock return volatility on credit default swap rates is higher for the lowest rating class.

Download or read book Credit Default Swaps and Stock Prices written by Andreas Lake and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this paper is to investigate empirically the association between the stock market and the credit default swap (CDS) market in terms of mean as well as volatility spillovers. Making use of 1612 daily observations from four stock markets, i.e., US, German, UK and Greek markets, as well as from two European CDS indices along with the methodology of the error correction (EC) and the multivariable generalized heteroskedasticity in mean (MVGARCH-M) modelling, the empirical findings yield: stock returns across European and US markets are negatively related to European CDS spread changes, the CDS market seems to lead the stock market, implying that information contents coming from the firm's environment seems first to have an impact on the CDS market and next to the stock market, and stock market volatility exerts a positive impact on CDS spreads.

Download or read book Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms written by Yibin Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Credit Default Swap Spreads and Variance Risk Premia VRP written by Hao Wang and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stock Options and Credit Default Swaps written by Liuren Wu and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a dynamically consistent framework that allows joint valuation and estimation of stock options and credit default swaps written on the same reference company. We model default as controlled by a Poisson process with a stochastic default arrival rate. When default occurs, the stock price drops to zero. Prior to default, the stock price follows a continuous process with stochastic volatility. The instantaneous default rate and instantaneous diffusion variance rate follow a bivariate continuous Markov process, with its dynamics specified to capture the empirical evidence on stock option prices and credit default swap spreads. Under this joint specification, we derive tractable pricing solutions for stock options and credit default swaps. We estimate the joint dynamics using stock option prices and credit default swap spreads for four of the most actively traded reference companies. The estimation highlights the interaction between market risk (diffusion variance) and credit risk (default arrival) in pricing stock options and credit default swaps. While the credit risk factor dominates credit spreads at long maturities, the stock return volatility also enters credit spreads at short maturities due to positive co-movements between the diffusion variance rate and the default arrival rate. Furthermore, while the diffusion variance rate influences the implied volatility uniformly across moneyness, the impact of the credit risk factor becomes much larger on options at lower strikes. The impact of the credit risk factor on stock options also increases with option maturity. For options maturing in six months, the contribution of the credit risk factor to option pricing is comparable in magnitude to the contribution of the diffusion variance rate.

Download or read book Credit Default Swaps written by Marti Subrahmanyam and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Niklas Wagner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-05-28 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring contributions from leading international academics and practitioners, Credit Risk: Models, Derivatives, and Management illustrates how a risk management system can be implemented through an understanding of portfolio credit risks, a set of suitable models, and the derivation of reliable empirical results. Divided into six sectio

Download or read book Volatility and Time Series Econometrics written by Mark Watson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-11 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics

Download or read book Do Credit Default Swap Prices Reveal the Presence of Informed Trading written by Hao Cheng and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We attempt to answer a key question whether credit default swap (CDS) prices and price changes contain private information that are used by informed traders within 24 hours to cross-trade in the related equity market. By disaggregating daily stock return into day (exchange trading hours), evening, and night returns, we find that the credit default swap return of a stock, with high credit spread and high idiosyncratic volatility (hard-to-value), negatively impacts the next market-hours stock return in a significant way both via panel regression tests and via portfolio profitability tests. For stocks with low idiosyncratic volatility and thus higher predictability, the CDS return impact is milder and is opposite in direction, indicating a pattern of hedged investing. We show empirically that by evening after market-hours, the impacted stock return would reverse partially explanable by the well-established observation of trading overconfidence due to private information bias. For the case of low credit ratings stocks with high opaqueness or being hard-to-value, there is the additional interesting finding that large stock price changes due to CDS impact do not evidence any partial reversal on the eve of days in which actual credit rating downgrade happened. This reinforces the evidence of the presence of informed trading. We also find that limit-to-arbitrage such as stock illiquidity and short-sale constraint cannot fully explain the predictive results on stock returns based on CDS return signals.

Download or read book Are the U S Stock Market and Credit Default Swap Market Related Evidence from the CDX Indices written by Hung-Gay Fung and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the market-wide relations between the U.S. stock market and the credit default swap (CDS) market for the period of 2001-2007. Results indicate that the lead-lag relationship between the U.S. stock market and the CDS market depends on the credit quality of the underlying reference entity. Specifically, this study finds significant mutual feedback of information between the stock market and the high-yield CDS market in terms of pricing and volatility, while the stock market leads the investment-grade CDS index in the pricing process. The CDS market seems to play a more significant role in volatility spillover than the stock market. That is, volatilities of both the investment-grade and high-yield CDS indices seem to lead the stock market volatility, while the latter has a feedback effect to that of the high-yield CDS market only. Overall, the implication is that market participants should seek information in both markets when they are about to engage in trading and/or hedging.

Download or read book The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.

Download or read book The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress written by Jochen R. Andritzky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-11 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit default swaps (CDS) provide the buyer with insurance against certain types of credit events by entitling him to exchange any of the bonds permitted as deliverable against their par value. Unlike bonds, whose risk spreads are assumed to be the product of default risk and loss rate, CDS are par instruments, and their spreads reflect the partial recovery of the delivered bond's face value. This paper addresses the implications of the difference between bond and CDS spreads and shows the extent to which the recovery assumption matters for determining CDS spreads. A no-arbitrage argument is applied to extract recovery rates from CDS and bond markets, using data from Brazil's distress in 2002-03. Results are related to the observation that preemptive restructurings are now more common than straight defaults in sovereign bond markets and that this leads to a decoupling of CDS and bond spreads.

Download or read book The Risks and Benefits of Credit Default Swaps and the Impact of a New Regulatory Environment written by Christoph Theis and published by Haupt Verlag AG. This book was released on 2014 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seit dem Ausbruch der jüngsten Finanzkrise sind Credit Default Swaps (CDS) ins Rampenlicht des akademischen und medialen Interesses gerückt und bilden seitdem den Gegenstand einer kontroversen Diskussion. Auf Europäischer Ebene werden zudem neue regulatorische Rahmenbedingungen eingeführt, die weitreichende Auswirkungen auf den CDS Markt haben werden. Die angesprochenen Kontroversen sowie die bevorstehenden regulatorischen Veränderungen machen den CDS Markt daher zu einem spannenden und wichtigen Forschungsgegenstand. Die vorliegende Dissertation beschäftigt sich in vier Forschungsarbeiten mit den Implikationen des Einsatzes von CDS auf Marktteilnehmer und gibt im speziellen Antworten auf offene Fragen hinsichtlich der Anwendung von Kreditrisikomodellen, des Nutzens und der Risiken von CDS und den Auswirkungen neuer Regulierungen auf den CDS Markt. In Kapitel I werden die theoretischen Grundlagen zur Messung des Kreditrisikos gelegt, wobei der Fokus auf der praktischen Anwendung von Kreditrisikomodellen liegt. Hierbei untersuche ich die zwei gängigsten Kreditrisikomodelle: den firmenwertbasierten sowie den intensitätsbasierten Ansatz. Dabei gewinne ich wichtige Einblicke in den Einsatz von Kreditrisikomodellen im Zusammenhang mit der Nutzung von Kreditderivaten. In Kapitel II werden der Nutzen und die Risiken von CDS unter theoretischen und empirischen Gesichtspunkten einer Analyse unterzogen. Basierend auf der Analyse werden nachfolgend regulatorische Handlungsempfehlungen abgeleitet und diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse zeitigen eine Reihe von Risiken, die sich insbesondere in Krisenzeiten verstärken und daher effektivere zukünftige Regulierungen verlangen. Kapitel III konzentriert sich auf neue regulatorische Anforderungen im CDS Markt. Dabei liegt der Fokus auf der Ausgestaltung der Zentralen Gegenparteien und den Auswirkungen deren Einführung auf die Marktteilnehmer. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Zentrale Gegenparteien ein.

Download or read book Volatility Patterns of CDS Bond and Stock Markets Before and During the Financial Crisis written by Ansgar Belke and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book What Determines U S Swap Spreads written by Ádám Kóbor and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: References p. 45-47.

Download or read book Completing the Market Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning written by Nan Hu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.

Download or read book Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads With the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms written by Benjamin Yi-Bin Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to explain the credit default swap (CDS) premium, using a novel approach to identify the volatility and jump risks of individual firms from high-frequency equity prices. Our empirical results suggest that the volatility risk alone predicts 48 percent of the variation in CDS spread levels, whereas the jump risk alone forecasts 19 percent. After controlling for credit ratings, macroeconomic conditions, and firms' balance sheet information, we can explain 73 percent of the total variation. We calibrate a Merton-type structural model with stochastic volatility and jumps, which can help to match credit spreads after controlling for the historical default rates. Simulation evidence suggests that the high-frequency-based volatility measures can help to explain the credit spreads, above and beyond what is already captured by the true leverage ratio.