Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries written by Hakan Berument and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country's economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. However, oil price shocks do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on the outputs of Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. When we further decompose positive oil shocks such as oil demand and oil supply for the latter set of countries, oil supply shocks are associated with lower output growth but the effect of oil demand shocks on output remain positive.
Download or read book Oil Prices and Bank Profitability written by Mr.Heiko Hesse and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and bank profitability. Using data on 145 banks in 11 oil-exporting MENA countries for 1994-2008, we test hypotheses of direct and indirect effects of oil price shocks on bank profitability. Our results indicate that oil price shocks have indirect effect on bank profitability, channeled through country-specific macroeconomic and institutional variables, while the direct effect is insignificant. Investment banks appear to be the most affected ones compared to Islamic and commercial banks. Our findings highlight systemic implications of oil price shocks on bank performance and underscore their importance for macroprudential regulation purposes in MENA countries.
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economy written by Nehme Elias Al Khawly and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main purpose of the project is to study the impact of oil price shocks on th e economy and its implications on the MENA Region. It also studies how oil shoc ks have impacted the economies during the history. After a general introduction in chapter I, chapter II shows theoretically the effect of an oil price shock o n the supply side of a given economy. Chapter III gives a historical overview o f the main oil shocks and analyzes their underlying reasons over the last two to three decades. Moreover, chapter III sheds light on the latest oil shock in 20 08, its preceding obvious oil price volatility, and its impact on the GCC econom ies. Chapter IV estimates the effect of oil prices on selected sectors of the L ebanese economy, with OLS regressions showing that oil prices affect negatively the real estate sector whereas the tourism, finance sectors and the coincident i ndicators are positively affected by oil price shocks but to different extents.
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Middle Income Developing Countries written by Mark E. Hanson and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting Countries written by Amir Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Download or read book The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Tourism Receipts for Selected MENA Countries written by Khalid M. Kisswani and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Crude Shock written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-18 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test the resilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals entering the oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies, and derive policy implications as to what factors help to mitigate the negative effects. We find that pre-existing fundamentals account for about half of the cross-country variation in the impact of the shock. Oil exporters that weathered the shock better tended to have a stronger fiscal position, higher foreign currency liquidity buffers, a more diversified export base, a history of price stability, and a more flexible exchange rate regime. Within this group of countries, the impact of the shock is not found to be related to the size of oil exports, or the share of oil in fiscal revenue or economic activity.
Download or read book The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
Download or read book Taking Stock written by Diego A. Cerdeiro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-04 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of Oil Exporting Countries written by Saeed Moshiri and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil price shocks affect macroeconomic performance in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The recent research on the oil-macroeconomy relationship in the oil-importing countries shows that oil price shocks have asymmetric effects on their economic growth; the adverse effects of higher oil prices are larger than the stimulating effects of lower prices. The effects of oil price shocks on economic performance and their transmission mechanism in oil-exporting countries are different than those in oil-importing countries. In this study, we examine the oil-macroeconomy nexus in the context of oil-exporting developing countries. We set up a VAR model with a GARCH-type oil price shocks to estimate and test the asymmetric effects of oil shocks in six major oil exporting members of OPEC for the period 1970-2009. The model includes oil price shocks and economic growth as two major variables of interest as well as the intermediate variables such as investment, exchange rate, and inflation rate. We find that in oil exporting developing countries, lower oil prices would lead to major revenue cuts and stagnation in the economy. However, higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate to a sustained economic growth.
Download or read book The U S Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-10 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
Download or read book Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa written by Mr.Hamid R Davoodi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-05 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.
Download or read book Economic Development in the MENA Region written by Mohamed Sami Ben Ali and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-08 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers new perspectives on the economic development of the Middle East and North Africa region. Offering both theoretical studies and empirical country studies, it examines micro- and macroeconomic issues and provides deep insights into the development challenges and prospects of various countries in the region. The articles examine a wide range of development issues, including economic growth, natural resource use, food security, poverty and inequality, corruption and transparency, military spending, water and resource scarcity, agriculture and aid effectiveness, and other relevant issues. The volume is aimed at scholars in economic and development studies as well as policy-makers and investors interested in the economic development of the MENA region.
Download or read book The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices Evidence for the MENA Countries written by Ansgar Belke and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and GDP Growth Do Energy Shares Amplify Causal Effects written by Philip Bergmann and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Macroeconomic Variables of Major Oil Exporting Countries written by Elnaz Hajebi and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world scale economy considering interlinkage and interactions between countries, economic shocks will affect various economies through channels. Meantime, the oil price is one of the most important channels. New studies show that the connection between the oil price and the world economy has numerous complications which could not be incorporated in traditional frames with only taking into consideration separated and identified oil supply and demand shocks without considering synchronicity and the source of the main shocks. Therefore it is essential to model a multi-dimensional system. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on the major macroeconomic variables of oil-exporting countries from 1974Q1 to 2019Q4 using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach. The macroeconomic variables include four domestic variables, three foreign variables and one global variable. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework for the global oil market to illustrate how multi-country approach to modeling oil markets can be used to identify country-specific oil price shocks. On the empirical side, it shows the global economic implications of oil price shocks vary considerably depending on which country is subject to the shock. The results of this study indicate that the economic consequences of a positive oil price shock are different on macroeconomic variables in oil-exporting countries in short-run and long-run. However, in response to a positive oil price shock, most of OPEC countries experience long-run inflationary pressures.
