Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Middle Income Developing Countries written by Mark E. Hanson and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting Countries written by Amir Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Download or read book Oil Price Developments Drivers Economic Consequences and Policy Responses written by Nadine Pahl and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-04-16 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,0, University of Applied Sciences Berlin, course: General Economics, language: English, abstract: Oil prices are an important determinant of global economic performance. Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50/bbl and $3.00/bbl from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. As of this day, the price for crude oil is $89.82/bbl. In general, spikes in oil prices are not unusual and are, to some extent, symptomatic of a gradual upward trend in daily oil price volatility. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. But especially within the last few years, the oil price has continuously increased sharply - and to some extent unexpected. This recent sharp increase in the oil price prompts several questions: Why have oil prices risen? What is the impact on the global economy and on individual countries? How do oil importing countries cope with the higher prices? What are appropriate policy responses to stabilise the economy in face of high oil prices? And last but not least, what role does the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries really play? To begin with, there is no doubt that the recent increase in oil price is mainly demand driven, combined with historically low excess capacity and heightened concerns about supply disruptions. And even without macroeconomic knowledge, everyone is aware that higher oil prices affect the economy as a whole and all its market participants. In the following, this paper analyses in detail the current main oil price drivers, their economic consequences and the possible policy responses - always framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterise the oil market.
Download or read book Oil and the International Economy written by Georg Koopmann and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil price increases of the 1970s left deep marks on the world economy. They led to a massive redistribution of income in favor of oil-producing countries, and caused serious disruption of growth, imbalances in foreign trade, and problems of stability in oil-importing countries. Despite the present levelling off, the authors suggest that more price increases remain a distinct possibility. "Oil and the International Economy "examines the effects of rising oil prices on the international financial system and identifies ways that oil-importing countries can overcome the financial and adjustment problems caused by them. The authors project the long-term trend in real oil prices and present economic policy options to help avoid future financial problems for industrialized and developing nations alike. Contents: The World Oil Market after the Oil Price Shocks; Future Trends in the Demand for Oil; Future Trends in the Supply of Oil; Balance-of-Payments and Exchange-Rate Adjustment: Current Account Developments in Times of Rising Oil Prices and Effects on Exchange Rates; The Effects of Real Oil Price Increases on Energy and Raw Material Prices; Repercussions on the General Price Level; Implications for the German Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; Are Real Oil Price Increases a Brake on Growth?; Options for Economic Policy; The Struggle for Markets in the Oil-Producing Countries; The Oil-Producing Countries as Competitors in the Manufacturing Sector; Consequences for Trade Between Oil-Importing Countries.
Download or read book Oil Prices and Bank Profitability written by Mr.Heiko Hesse and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and bank profitability. Using data on 145 banks in 11 oil-exporting MENA countries for 1994-2008, we test hypotheses of direct and indirect effects of oil price shocks on bank profitability. Our results indicate that oil price shocks have indirect effect on bank profitability, channeled through country-specific macroeconomic and institutional variables, while the direct effect is insignificant. Investment banks appear to be the most affected ones compared to Islamic and commercial banks. Our findings highlight systemic implications of oil price shocks on bank performance and underscore their importance for macroprudential regulation purposes in MENA countries.
Download or read book Oil Price Developments Drivers Economic Consequences and Policy Responses written by Nadine Pahl and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-03-27 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,0, University of Applied Sciences Berlin, course: General Economics, language: English, abstract: Oil prices are an important determinant of global economic performance. Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50/bbl and $3.00/bbl from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. As of this day, the price for crude oil is $89.82/bbl. In general, spikes in oil prices are not unusual and are, to some extent, symptomatic of a gradual upward trend in daily oil price volatility. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. But especially within the last few years, the oil price has continuously increased sharply – and to some extent unexpected. This recent sharp increase in the oil price prompts several questions: Why have oil prices risen? What is the impact on the global economy and on individual countries? How do oil importing countries cope with the higher prices? What are appropriate policy responses to stabilise the economy in face of high oil prices? And last but not least, what role does the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries really play? To begin with, there is no doubt that the recent increase in oil price is mainly demand driven, combined with historically low excess capacity and heightened concerns about supply disruptions. And even without macroeconomic knowledge, everyone is aware that higher oil prices affect the economy as a whole and all its market participants. In the following, this paper analyses in detail the current main oil price drivers, their economic consequences and the possible policy responses - always framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterise the oil market.
Download or read book Economy wide and Distributional Impacts of an Oil Price Shock on the South African Economy written by B. Essama-Nssah and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: As crude oil prices reach new highs, there is renewed concern about how external shocks will affect growth and poverty in developing countries. This paper describes a macro-micro framework for examining the structural and distributional consequences of a significant external shock-an increase in the world price of oil-on the South African economy. The authors merge results from a highly disaggregative computable general equilibrium model and a micro-simulation analysis of earnings and occupational choice based on socio-demographic characteristics of the household. The model provides changes in employment, wages, and prices that are used in the micro-simulation. The analysis finds that a 125 percent increase in the price of crude oil and refined petroleum reduces employment and GDP by approximately 2 percent, and reduces household consumption by approximately 7 percent. The oil price shock tends to increase the disparity between rich and poor. The adverse impact of the oil price shock is felt by the poorer segment of the formal labor market in the form of declining wages and increased unemployment. Unemployment hits mostly low and medium-skilled workers in the services sector. High-skilled households, on average, gain from the oil price shock. Their income rises and their spending basket is less skewed toward food and other goods that are most affected by changes in oil prices.
Download or read book Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-05 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.
Download or read book The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the World Economy written by Lars Matthiessen and published by Springer. This book was released on 1982-06-18 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-21 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.
Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-10 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Download or read book The Oil Crisis and Economic Adjustments written by Andrew MacKillop and published by Burns & Oates. This book was released on 1983 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Case studies analysing the impact of petroleum price increase and monetary policies for major OECD countries on economic adjustment in petroleum exporting countries (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Senegal, Peru and Jamaica) - examines commodity Terms of Trade, gross domestic products, current account deficit, external debt, energy consumption, and petroleum product prices; reviews world economic trends, 1970 to 1980, agricultural sector perspectives, and alternative energy source issues in developing countries. Graphs and statistical tables.
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.
Download or read book Economic Diversification in Oil Exporting Arab Countries written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...
