Download or read book The Impact of Jumps on Carry Trade Returns written by Suzanne S. Lee and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates how jump risks are priced in currency markets. We find that currencies whose changes are more sensitive to negative market jumps provide significantly higher expected returns. The positive risk premium constitutes compensation for the extreme losses during periods of market turmoil. Using the empirical findings, we propose a jump modified carry trade strategy, which has approximately 2-percentage-point (per annum) higher returns than the regular carry trade strategy. These findings result from the fact that negative jump betas are significantly related to the riskiness of currencies and business conditions.

Download or read book Carry Trades and Tail Risk of Exchange Rates written by Chanaka N. Ganepola and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historically, Carry trades have been a success story for most investor and a major source of funds for emerging economies maintaining higher interest rates. Therefore it's a timely topic to investigate the risk embedded in such transactions and to what extent the carry trade returns explain the tail risk. Initially, this research estimates the tail index of all the currencies and formulates a unique inverse function for all the currencies in relation to Power laws, with the idea of estimating the respective Value-at-Risk. This research considers twenty five currencies and replicates them in to five portfolios based on the annualised daily return of a weekly forward contract. Trade was executed assuming a U.S. investor, who goes long in a high return portfolio and short in a low return portfolio. Further, this research examines the impact of carry trade returns on the overall tail risk within the context of foreign exchange and interest rate gain in long and short positions of the trade. The results indicate that tail risk cannot be explained effectively by its returns because of its exponential nature. However, I find that tail risk is mostly influenced by the long position of the carry trade. Furthermore, the return of the foreign exchange component appears to have a better explanation on the tail risk compared to the interest rate return. The Value-at-Risk analysis also suggests that the tail risk of overall strategy is influenced by the tail risk of foreign exchange component embedded in the long position of the trade.

Download or read book The Effect of Risk Changes on Carry Trade Returns and Speculative Behavior written by Felix Dietrich and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the time-series reaction of carry trade returns to changes in various risk factors. Using non-linear methods, I find that implied currency volatility is an informative time-series predictor. Increases (declines) in the implied currency volatility (or, generally, perceptions of future risk) result in lower (higher) subsequent carry trade returns. The reaction to extreme changes in these risk perceptions is even more pronounced. Using futures positioning data, it is shown that speculators tend to sell carry trade positions upon a perception of increased risk and vice versa. A piecewise linear threshold model is proposed to predict short-term carry trade returns; it outperforms a variety of benchmarks (including the random walk) on almost all metrics. Robustness tests suggest that this performance does not depend on certain model settings or the sample period (i.e. data mining); instead, a rollingly updated model would lead to even better results.

Download or read book Carry and Trend Following Returns in the Foreign Exchange Market written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Impact of Global Uncertainty on Carry trade Excess Returns written by Mwika Sarah Muzangisa and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Carry Trade Returns and Segmented Risk Pricing written by Gordon Schulze and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The returns to carry trades are controversially discussed as there seems to be no unifying risk-based explanation of currency returns and stock returns. This paper addresses carry trade returns from a risk pricing perspective and examines if these returns can be connected to persistent cross-country differences of risk aversion. Therefore, I analyze a data set of individual carry trade currencies. Based on a GMM estimation, I find significantly large and persistent cross-country differences of risk aversion in the interest rate market compared to the implied risk aversion in the stock market. In this context, investment currencies are more sensitive to U.S. consumption risk while funding currencies provide a hedge. However, this also implies that there is no unifying SDF and consequently, both the interest rate market and the stock market appear to be segmented in risk pricing for carry trade countries.

Download or read book Sources of Risk in Currency Returns written by Mikhail Chernov and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the sources of risk in currency returns as a first step toward understanding the returns reported for the carry trade. To do this, we develop and estimate an empirical model of exchange rate dynamics using daily data for four currencies relative to the US dollar: the Australian dollar, the British pound, the Swiss franc, and the Japanese yen. The model includes (i) Gaussian shocks with stochastic variance, (ii) jumps up and down in the exchange rate, and (iii) jumps in the variance. We identify these components using data on exchange rates and at-the-money implied variances. We find that the probability of a jump depreciation (appreciation) in the exchange rate is increasing in the domestic (foreign) interest rate. The probability of jumps in variance is increasing in the variance but not related to interest rates. Many of the jumps in exchange rates are associated with macroeconomic and political news, but jumps in variance are not. Overall, jumps account for 25% of total currency risk over horizons of one to three months.

Download or read book Explaining the Returns to the Carry Trade written by Maya Bandia and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Essays on the Impact of Carry Trade Activity on Exchange Rate Movements Market Volatility written by Takvor H. Mutafoglu and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Impact of Macroeconomic Surprises on Carry Trade Activity written by Michael M. Hutchison and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can official news and policy announcements affect foreign exchange speculation? This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic surprises on risk perceptions of carry traders and the size of their overall positions. Unlike much of the previous literature, we are able to identify a significant impact of macroeconomic surprises on foreign exchange volatility of JPY/USD even at low (daily) frequency. We use information gleaned from risk reversal contracts (tails of the implied returns distribution) during the period when concerns about sharp yen appreciation were particularly high, hence more likely to show up in the price of risk. We also consider a broader set of U.S. and Japanese news than previous work, focusing on the announcements with particularly large surprise components to them. Overall, we find that macroeconomic news is an important determinant of risk reversals during periods of heavy carry trade volume, particularly when the cost of hedging against large yen appreciation is increasing. The results are more supportive of the trade-balance flow channel over portfolio-balance or monetary channel of exchange rate determination during the sample period. Specifically, Japan (U.S.) macro news that worsen (improve) the trade balance generally are associated with less perceived risk of sharp yen appreciation, as reflected in the value of risk reversals. Moreover, there is a close link between risk reversals and non-commercial futures positions. We calculate a substantial effect of macroeconomic news on carry trade activity, with risk reversals (the cost of hedging) as the transmission mechanism.

Download or read book The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns written by Michael S. Johannes and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines a class of continuous-time models that incorporate jumps in returns and volatility, in addition to diffusive stochastic volatility. We develop a likelihood-based estimation strategy and provide estimates of model parameters, spot volatility, jump times and jump sizes using both Samp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 index returns. Estimates of jumps times, jump sizes and volatility are particularly useful for disentangling the dynamic effects of these factors during periods of market stress, such as those in 1987, 1997 and 1998. Using both formal and informal diagnostics, we find strong evidence for jumps in volatility, even after accounting for jumps in returns. We use implied volatility curves computed from option prices to judge the economic differences between the models. Finally, we evaluate the impact of estimation risk on option prices and find that the uncertainty in estimating the parameters and the spot volatility has important, though very different, effects on option prices.

Download or read book Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.

Download or read book The Carry Trade written by Kent Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine carry trade returns formed from the G10 currencies. Performance attributes depend on the base currency. Dynamically spread-weighting and risk-rebalancing positions improves performance. Equity, bond, FX, volatility, and downside equity risks cannot explain profitability. Dollar-neutral carry trades exhibit insignificant abnormal returns, while the dollar exposure part of the carry trade earns significant abnormal returns with little skewness. Downside equity market betas of our carry trades are not significantly different from unconditional betas. Hedging with options reduces but does not eliminate abnormal returns. Distributions of drawdowns and maximum losses from daily data indicate the importance of time-varying autocorrelation in determining the negative skewness of longer horizon returns.

Download or read book Carry Trades and Risk written by Craig Burnside and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Carry trades, in which an investor borrows a low interest rate currency and lends a high interest rate currency, have been profitable historically. The risk exposure of carry traders might explain their high returns, but conventional models of risk do not work because traditional risk factors, used to price the stock market, do not price currency returns. Less traditional factors that are more successful in explaining currency returns, are, however, unsuccessful in explaining the returns to the stock market. More exotic models of "crisis risk" are another possibility, but I show that any time-variation in the exposure of the carry trade to market risk has been insufficient, in sample, to explain the average returns earned by carry traders. Instead, peso events remain a candidate explanation of the returns to the carry trade -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Download or read book The Rise of Carry The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis written by Tim Lee and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2019-12-13 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Protect yourself from the next financial meltdown with this game-changing primer on financial markets, the economy—and the meteoric rise of carry. The financial shelves are filled with books that explain how popular carry trading has become in recent years. But none has revealed just how significant a role it plays in the global economy—until now. A groundbreaking book sure to leave its mark in the canon of investing literature, The Rise of Carry explains how carry trading has virtually shaped the global economic picture—one of decaying economic growth, recurring crises, wealth disparity, and, in too many places, social and political upheaval. The authors explain how carry trades work—particularly in the currency and stock markets—and provide a compelling case for how carry trades have come to dominate the entire global business cycle. They provide thorough analyses of critical but often overlooked topics and issues, including: •The active role stock prices play in causing recessions—as opposed to the common belief that recessions cause price crashes •The real driving force behind financial asset prices •The ways that carry, volatility selling, leverage, liquidity, and profitability affect the business cycle •How positive returns to carry over time are related to market volatility—and how central bank policies have supercharged these returns Simply put, carry trading is now the primary determinant of the global business cycle—a pattern of long, steady but unspectacular expansions punctuated by catastrophic crises. The Rise of Carry provides foundational knowledge and expert insights you need to protect yourself from what have come to be common market upheavals—as well as the next major crisis.

Download or read book Carry Trade Strategies Based on Option Implied Information written by Steven Shu-Hsiu Chen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document carry trade returns based on the moments extracted from options on the underlying currencies. We establish three important results. First, a currency pair is predicted to have greater excess returns if option-implied returns are more volatile, are more left-skewed, and have fatter tails than the returns of other currency pairs. Second, strategies based on option-implied information improve on benchmark strategies based on realized market returns and macroeconomic data. Third, if the option-implied returns of a currency pair are more left-skewed than in the past, anti-carry trades rather than carry trades perform better.

Download or read book Still Crazy After All These Years written by Emilio Colombo and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a novel approach to provide directional forecasts for carry trade strategies; this approach is based on Support VectorMachines (SVM), a Learning algorithm which delivers extremely promising results. Building on recent findings of the literature on carry trade we condition the SVM on indicators of uncertainty and risk; we show that this provides a dramatic improvement of the performance of the strategy, in particular during periods of financial distress such as the recent financial crises. Disentangling between measures of risk we show that the best performances are obtained by conditioning the SVM on measures of liquidity risk rather than on market volatility.