Download or read book The Impact of Inflation and Interest Rate Cycle on the Bond Market written by Chen Qian and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past year and a half, the issue of high inflation has garnered significant attention due to the lingering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Existing literature has predominantly explored the correlation between inflation and the stock market, but there is a dearth of studies investigating the impact of inflation on the bond market. This article examines the relationship between inflation variables and bond yields (specifically, 2-year and 10-year bond yields) as well as bond spreads. The study also incorporates interbank rates to account for the impact of rate hike cycles. In empirical study, the data consists of developed market and emerging market annual panel data during year 2002 to 2022. Using a panel data regression model, our study reveals that during rate hike cycles, both 2-year and 10-year bond yields tend to increase, after accounting for fixed effects. In contrast, rate hike cycles are associated with a contraction in bond spreads. Meanwhile, in an environment of high inflation, some excellent bond will be undervalued. Based on our findings, we suggest that investors should closely monitor changes in monetary policy, particularly rate hike cycles, and consider investing in bonds with longer maturities. Besides, we find that selected countries' monetary policy are consistent, affected by the spillover effect of Fed monetary policy. and then, we might also think about whether the steady shift in monetary policy in mainland China is having an impact on other emerging market countries.
Download or read book Tight Money Timing written by Wilfred R. George and published by Praeger Publishers. This book was released on 1982 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Ivan Tchakarov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-05-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.
Download or read book Crisis in the Bond Market written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Download or read book Inflation Real Interest Rates and the Bond Market written by David G. Barr and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government nominal and index-linked bonds. The estimation method takes account of imperfections in the indexation of UK index-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation follow simple time-series processes whose parameters can be estimated from the cross-section of bond prices. The extracted inflation expectations forecast actual future inflation more accurately than nominal yields do. The estimated real interest rate is highly variable at short horizons, but comparatively stable at long horizons. Changes in real rates and expected inflation are strongly negatively correlated at short horizons, but not at long horizons
Download or read book Interest Rate Markets written by Siddhartha Jha and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-03-28 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to build a framework for forecasting interest rate market movements With trillions of dollars worth of trades conducted every year in everything from U.S. Treasury bonds to mortgage-backed securities, the U.S. interest rate market is one of the largest fixed income markets in the world. Interest Rate Markets: A Practical Approach to Fixed Income details the typical quantitative tools used to analyze rates markets; the range of fixed income products on the cash side; interest rate movements; and, the derivatives side of the business. Emphasizes the importance of hedging and quantitatively managing risks inherent in interest rate trades Details the common trades which can be used by investors to take views on interest rates in an efficient manner, the methods used to accurately set up these trades, as well as common pitfalls and risks?providing examples from previous market stress events such as 2008 Includes exclusive access to the Interest Rate Markets Web site which includes commonly used calculations and trade construction methods Interest Rate Markets helps readers to understand the structural nature of the rates markets and to develop a framework for thinking about these markets intuitively, rather than focusing on mathematical models
Download or read book The Federal Reserve System Purposes and Functions written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides an in-depth overview of the Federal Reserve System, including information about monetary policy and the economy, the Federal Reserve in the international sphere, supervision and regulation, consumer and community affairs and services offered by Reserve Banks. Contains several appendixes, including a brief explanation of Federal Reserve regulations, a glossary of terms, and a list of additional publications.
Download or read book Negative Interest Rates written by Luís Brandão Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on negative interest rate policies and covers a broad range of its effects, with a detailed discussion of findings in the academic literature and of broader country experiences.
Download or read book Practical Business Forecasting written by Michael K. Evans and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-05-06 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stressing the concrete applications of economic forecasting, Practical Business Forecasting is accessible to a wide-range of readers, requiring only a familiarity with basic statistics. The text focuses on the use of models in forecasting, explaining how to build practical forecasting models that produce optimal results. In a clear and detailed format, the text covers estimating and forecasting with single and multi- equation models, univariate time-series modeling, and determining forecasting accuracy. Additionally, case studies throughout the book illustrate how the models are actually estimated and adjusted to generate accurate forecasts. After reading this text, students and readers should have a clearer idea of the reasoning and choices involved in building models, and a deeper foundation in estimating econometric models used in practical business forecasting.
Download or read book Are Tax Effects Important in the Long Run Fisher Relation Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market written by William J. Crowder and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent studies of the Fisher relation have yielded contradictory conclusions on the importance of taxes in determining the long-run response of nominal interest rates to changes in expected inflation. This study uses data on taxable U.S. treasury and tax exempt municipal bond interest rates to shed light on the effects of inflation on nominal interest rates.
Download or read book Keynes on Monetary Policy Finance and Uncertainty written by Jorg Bibow and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a reassessment of Keynes’ theory of liquidity preference. It argues that the failure of the Keynesian revolution to be made in either theory or practice owes importantly to the fact that the role of liquidity preference theory as a pivotal element in Keynes’ General Theory has remained underexplored and indeed widely misunderstood even among Keynes’ followers and until today. The book elaborates on and extends Keynes’ conceptual framework, moving it from the closed economy to the global economy context, and applies liquidity preference theory to current events and prominent hypotheses in global finance. Jörg Bibow presents Keynes’ liquidity preference theory as a distinctive and highly relevant approach to monetary theory offering a conceptual framework of general applicability for explaining the role and functioning of the financial system. He argues that, in a dynamic context, liquidity preference theory may best be understood as a theory of financial intermediation. Through applications to current events and prominent hypotheses in global finance, this book underlines the richness, continued relevance, and superiority of Keynes’ theory of liquidity preference; with Hyman Minsky standing out for developing Keynes’ vision of financial capitalism.
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy written by Carl Chiarella and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.
Download or read book How Does Inflation in Advanced Economies Affect Emerging Market Bond Yields written by Sei-Wan Kim and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Increasing oil and food prices and persistent supply chain disruptions in 2022 contributed to inflation in advanced economies that had not been seen in decades. This pushed up interest rates, which in turn led to higher yields in global bond markets. This study examines two distinct channels that transmit advanced economy inflation to emerging market bond yields by employing a novel multivariable smooth transition autoregressive- vector autoregressive (STAR-VAR) model. Our empirical analysis yields two new key findings. First, advanced economy inflation has a significant effect on regime changes between expansion and contraction in emerging market bond yields. Second, the shortrun effect of advanced economy inflation on the bond yields of emerging markets is asymmetric between the expansion and contraction regimes. The effect is mostly positive in both regimes but stronger in a bond yield's contraction regime. This suggests that the response of emerging market bond yields to advanced economy inflation does not necessarily follow a simple Fisher equation relationship.
Download or read book Negative Interest Rate Policy NIRP written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-10 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.
Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
