Download or read book THE GREAT LAKES CLIMATE ANALYSIS USING A TWO WAY COUPLED 3 D GREAT LAKES ATMOSPHERE REGIONAL MODEL WITH DATA ASSIMILATION METHODOLOGY written by and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract : The objective of this work is to provide the best estimation of physical state of the Great Lakes using the two-way coupled Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM) integrated with Data Assimilation (DA) methodology. The aim of the first part is to understand the lake internal process that determines the relationship between lake surface temperature (LST) and lake thermal variations. A 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to examine the nonlinear processes of water mixing and ice formation that caused changes in lake heat content and further variation of LST. The results show that heat content trends do not necessarily follow (and can even be opposed to) trends in LST. In addition, the lake total lake heat content, thermal properties, length of stratification periods, and lake stability intensity were analyzed using validated GLARM 3-D results from 1983-2016. Furthermore, the lake thermal variations were analyzed using physical stability indices. The results reveal that climate change would not only affect the air-lake energy exchange but can also alter lake internal dynamics. In the second part, a Great Lakes forecast system with both long-term and short-term predictions is presented. A downscaled, robust, and sophisticated two-way coupled GLARM model was used to project the climate change over the Great Lakes region over the periods of 2030 - 2050 and 2080 - 2100. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were included. As a result, the stress in air temperature and precipitation during the period of 2080 - 2100 under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5) will be exacerbated with larger spatial variability compared with the medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). For lake conditions, annual mean LST of Lake Erie shows the largest changes among the five lakes. The decrease in the mean lake ice coverage is projected over all the five lakes, while the largest decrease occurs along the coast. Furthermore, the application of DA using Lake Erie as a case study was evaluated. The results show that DA can effectively improve the model performance with limited observational data. The data assimilative model also improves forecasting accuracy and restrains the forecasting uncertainty to an acceptable level on a timescale of 1-7 days after unleashed from DA.
Download or read book PREDICTING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE GREAT LAKES WATER LEVELS USING A FULLY COUPLED 3D REGIONAL MODELING SYSTEM written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract : The Great Lakes of North America are the largest surface freshwater system in the world and many ecosystems, industries, and coastal processes are sensitive to the changes in their water levels. The recent changes in the Great Lakes climate and water levels have particularly highlighted the importance of water level prediction. The water levels of the Great Lakes are primarily governed by the net basin supplies (NBS) of each lake which are the sum of over-lake precipitation and basin runoff minus lake evaporation. Recent studies have utilized Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with a fully coupled one-dimensional (1D) lake model to predict the future NBS, and the Coordinated Great Lakes Regulating and Routing Model (CGLRRM) has been used to predict the future water levels. However, multiple studies have emphasized the need for a three-dimensional (3D) lake model to accurately simulate the Great Lakes water budget. Therefore, in this study, we used the Great Lakes-Atmosphere Regional Model (GLARM) along with the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) and CGLRRM to predict the changes in NBS and water levels by the mid- and late twenty-first century. GLARM is a 3D regional climate modeling system for the Great Lakes region that is fully coupled to a 3D hydrodynamic lake and ice model. This is the first study to use such an advanced model for water level prediction in the Great Lakes. We found that both annual over-lake precipitation and basin runoff are most likely to increase into the future. We also found that annual lake evaporation is most likely to decrease in Lake Superior but increase in all the other lakes. We posit that the decreases in evaporation are due to decreased wind speed over the lakes and decreased difference between saturated and actual specific humidity over the lakes. Our predicted changes in the three components of NBS would lead to mostly increased NBS and water levels in the future. The ensemble average of our predicted water level changes for Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron, and Erie are +0.14 m, +0.37 m, and +0.23 m by the mid-twenty-first century, respectively, and +0.47 m, +1.29 m, and +0.80 m by the late twenty-first century, respectively. However, due to the multiple sources of uncertainties associated with climate modeling and predictions, the water level predictions from this study should not be viewed as exact predictions. These predictions are unique to our model configuration and methodology. Other studies can easily predict different water level changes through the use of different models and methodologies. Therefore, more predictions from advanced modeling systems like GLARM are needed to generate a consensus on future water level changes in the Great Lakes.
Download or read book Weather and Climate of the Great Lakes Region written by Val L. Eichenlaub and published by Notre Dame, Ind. : University of Notre Dame Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Lakes exert a considerable influence on the weather of the surrounding area, causing fog, clouds, breezes, snowfall, and other lake effects. This work explains the atmospheric processes underlying the characteristic weather patterns of the region.
Download or read book An Investigation of Historical Lake atmosphere Interactions in the Great Lakes Basin written by and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Laurentian Great Lakes are a tremendous freshwater resource, holding approximately 20% of the world's unfrozen freshwater. With a combined surface area of 244,000 km2, the Great Lakes are constantly interacting with the overlying atmosphere through fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum. In the current study, we explore interactions between the Great Lakes and overlying atmosphere using a combination of observational and modeling tools. Results based on historical observations indicate that over-lake precipitation from the Lake Superior watershed is associated with transient Rossby waves during each month of the year. Further analysis indicates the origin and path of these waves change with the background flow. During summer and early fall, the Pacific jet is relatively sharp and acts as a waveguide, such that Rossby wave trains traversing the Great Lakes region do not follow a great-circle path. While the atmosphere primarily dictates hydrology in the Great Lakes basin, each of the Great Lakes feeds back on the overlying atmosphere, ultimately influencing the local and regional climate. Historical observational and modeling studies support this claim; however, a consistent, long-term analysis of the impacts of the Great Lakes on climate has yet to be executed. In the current analysis, the influence of the Great Lakes on climate is assessed by comparing two decade-long regional climate simulations, with the lakes present or replaced by woodland. Model results indicate the Great Lakes dampen seasonal and daily surface air temperature ranges, alter the strength and track of synoptic systems, and modify atmospheric stability. Additional analysis based on output from the regional climate model indicates that seasonal fluctuations in atmospheric stability over Lake Superior influence the ratio of over-lake to over-land precipitation. Since the current operational technique used to estimate over-lake precipitation does not account for variations in atmospheric stability, these estimates are likely too high during stable, warm-season months, and too low during less-stable or unstable, cold-season months. Collectively, results from this analysis demonstrate the significance of atmospheric forcing and lake feedbacks on hydrology and climate throughout the Great Lakes basin.
Download or read book The Coupled Lakes Model for Estimating the Long term Response of the Great Lakes to Time dependent Loadings of Particle associated Contaminants written by John A. Robbins and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Potential Climate Change Effects on Great Lakes Hydrodynamics and Water Quality written by David C. L. Lam and published by ASCE Publications. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report provides a state-of-the-art review of the climate change effects on lake hydrodynamics and water quality. Most of the engineering cases in this book deal with the ability of existing infrastructure to cope with extreme weather conditions. The case studies are intended to illustrate the advancement in modeling research on lake hydrodynamics, thermal stratification, pollutant transport, and water quality by highlighting the climate change aspects in the application of these techniques. Topics include climate and lake responses, lake thermodynamics, large-scale circulation, wind-waves on large lakes, great lakes ice cover, and water quality.
Download or read book Simulation of Atmospheric and Lake Conditions in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region Using the Coupled Hydrosphere Atmosphere Research Model CHARM written by Brent Melvin Lofgren and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greenhouse gas-induced climate change will have notable effects on the Great Lakes region, in the atmosphere, land surfaces, and lakes themselves. Simulations of these effects were carried out using the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM), driven by output from the Canadian General Circulation Model version 3 (CRCM3) for past and future time periods. This results in increased downward longwave radiation and near-surface air temperature. The air temperature increases during summer have strong spatial minima directly over the lakes that are limited to the lowest model layer and seem to be associated with frequent fog depicted by CHARM. Precipitation is also generally increased, with the most spatially coherent, and among the strongest, increases occurring in the near-shore lake effect zones during winter. Evapotranspiration is generally increased, although only weakly over land, but very strongly over the lakes during winter. Water temperatures are increased and the summer stratification pattern (warmer water overlying colder) is established earlier in the year. Ice cover is diminished and limited to shallow parts of the lakes. Several bugs and shortcomings in CHARM are identified for correction in future development and use.
Download or read book Hydroclimatology of the Great Lakes Region of North America written by Julie A. Winkler and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-11-14 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Change in the Upper Great Lakes Region written by Peter J. Sousounis and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book IFYGL the International Field Year for the Great Lakes written by Eugene James Aubert and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Great Lakes Degree day and Temperature Summaries and Norms 1897 1977 written by Raymond A. Assel and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Daily maximum and minimum air temperatures at 25 locations on the perimeter of the Great Lakes for the period 1897 to 1977 were used to generate long term daily air temperatures and freezing and thawing degree-days (FDD's and TDD's). In addition daily, weekly, and monthly FDD's and daily TDD's were calculated for the 81 summer and 80 winter seasons between 1897 and 1877. this report describes the computational procedure and presents graphs and tables resulting from this analysis. The complete analysis is too voluminous to present in hard copy, but is available on microfilm through World Data Center A, Institure of Arcic and Alpine research, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder Colorado 80309.
Download or read book Implications of Climatic Change for Navigation and Power Generation in the Great Lakes written by Marie Sanderson and published by The Service. This book was released on 1987 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Of the results of two phases of a study to determine the likely impact of climate change on navigation and hydro power generation in the Great Lakes. The first phase, completed in March 1985, included a review of the climate impacts literature, the construction of a theoretical framework describing the affecting links, and an evaluation of several models for their suitability for climate impact assessment. The second phase was completed in March 1986 and was a preliminary assessment, using the appropriate models.
Download or read book Great Lakes Precipitation by Months 1900 80 written by Frank H. Quinn and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate values of monthly precipitation are required for simulation, forecasting, and water resource studies of the Great Lakes and their basins. There are often significant errors in the present method of computing these values because of technique problems accentuated when data from preselected stations are missing. Therefore, a monthly precipitation climatology was derived by a modified Thiessen approach using a grid-square technique. The resulting data set, which represents a major improvement over that presently in use, is presented here.
Download or read book Great Lakes Hydrometeorologic and Hydraulic Data Needs written by International Great Lakes Technical Information Network Board and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Reaffirmation of Large Biases in a Long used Method for Projecting Changes in Great Lakes Water Levels in Climate Change Scenarios written by Brent Melvin Lofgren and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); in addition to previous published work, we show here again that its very high sensitivity to temperature makes it overestimate ET in a way that is highly inconsistent with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. Under the traditional formulation, the quantity that has been called "energy available for evapotranspiration," which is proportional to what we call "potential evapotranspiration" (PET), is increased by large factors in future scenarios--by a factor of nearly 600 in the Lake Superior basin under forcing by one GCM case, but more typically by factors between 3 and 10. Because of the way that LBRM is formulated and calibrated, these factors can be thought of as corresponding to the factor of increase in solar radiation incident on the Earth, or, more vividly, as the number of Suns present in the sky of the virtual world simulated by LBRM. Therefore, we have created alternative formulations, which we regard as more reflective of what is being simulated by the driving GCMs, for the way that climate change is ingested into the modeling system that includes LBRM. In addition to the energy adjustment method in which PET is increased by an amount proportional to the change in net radiative energy at the surface, we add the Priestley-Taylor method, which augments the energy adjustment method by inclusion of a temperature-dependent factor with rigorous theoretical underpinnings that is a much weaker function of temperature than in the LBRM's basic formulation, as well as the Clausius-Clapeyron method, in which the PET is increased by an amount proportional to the increase in water vapor capacity of the atmosphere, again a weaker function of temperature than in the LBRM. We establish that all three of these alternative methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less PET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. The magnitude of these discrepancies is highly correlated with the air temperature change in the driving GCM (larger temperature changes lead to larger discrepancies). Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, we find that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level.
Download or read book Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region written by Thomas Dietz and published by Michigan State University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-01 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People living in the Great Lakes region are already feeling the effects of a changing climate. Shifts in seasonal temperatures and precipitation patterns could have dramatic impacts on the economy, ecology, and quality of life. In this illuminating and thorough volume, leading scholars address the challenge of preparing for climate change in the region, where decision makers from various sectors—government, agriculture, recreation, and tourism—must increasingly be aware of the need to incorporate climate change into their short- and long-term planning. The chapters in this revealing book, written by some of the foremost climate change scholars in North America, outline the major trends in the climate of the Great Lakes region, how humans might cope with the uncertainty of climate change impacts, and examples of on-the-ground projects that have addressed these issues.
Download or read book Great Lakes Update written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
