Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015 written by Martin Eichenbaum and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016-06-22 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.

Download or read book Havoc Thy Name Is Twenty First Century written by Peter Pogany and published by iUniverse. This book was released on 2015-10-16 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Just to maintain our standard of living, we need to grow the worldwide economy at an unsustainable rate. As we seek to hit such lofty targets, were bound to deplete our resources and cause environmental crises on a scale that we have never seen before. Revolutions, terrorism, and wars will follow. Peter Pogany examines the problems we face and argues that human culture is governed by thermodynamic cycles of steady states interrupted by chaotic transitions. Specifically, he postulates that a steady state was interrupted by World War I, with a chaotic transition following World War II, which has led us to the current world order. His theory predicts that global society is drifting toward a new form of self-organization that will recognize limits to demographic-economic expansion but only after we go through a new chaotic transition that will start sometime between now and the 2030s. Havoc, They Name is Twenty-First Century, delivers sobering thoughts on where the world is headed, but it also offers a glimpse of a bright future that we can embrace once we get through the darkness to come.

Download or read book Breaking the Oil Spell written by Reda Cherif and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-15 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Download or read book The Rise and Fall of Business Firms written by S. V. Buldyrev and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the intersection between statistical physics and rigorous econometric analysis, this powerful new framework sheds light on how innovation and competition shape the growth and decline of companies and industries. Analyzing various sources of data including a unique micro level database which collects historic data on the sales of more than 3,000 firms and 50,000 products in 20 countries, the authors introduce and test a model of innovation and proportional growth, which relies on minimal assumptions and accounts for the empirically observed regularities. Through a combination of extensive stochastic simulations and statistical tests, the authors investigate to what extent their simple assumptions are falsified by empirically observable facts. Physicists looking for application of their mathematical and modelling skills to relevant economic problems as well as economists interested in the explorative analysis of extensive data sets and in a physics-orientated way of thinking will find this book a key reference.

Download or read book The Granular Origins of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Europe written by Mr.Christian H Ebeke and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-07 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the microeconomic origins of aggregate economic fluctuations in Europe. It examines the relevance of idiosyncratic shocks at the top 100 large firms (the granular shocks) in explaining aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. The paper also assesses the strength of spillovers from large firms onto SMEs. Using firm-level data covering over 14 million firms and eight european countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain), we find that: (i) 40 percent of the variance in GDP in the sample can be explained by idiosyncratic shocks at large firms; (ii) positive granular shocks at large firms spill over to domestic SMEs’ output, especially if SMEs’ balance sheets are healthy and if SMEs belong to the services and manufacturing sectors.

Download or read book Structural Transformation and the Volatility of Aggregate Output in OECD Countries written by Mr.Constant Lonkeng Ngouana and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-15 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds a negative relationship between the employment share of the service sector and the volatility of aggregate output in the OECD—after controlling for the level of financial development. This result reflects volatility differentials across sectors: labor productivity is more volatile in agriculture and manufacturing than in services. Aggregate output would therefore become less volatile as labor moves away from agriculture and manufacturing and toward the service sector. I examine the quantitative role of these labor shifts—termed structural transformation—on the volatility of aggregate output in OECD countries. I first calibrate to the U.S. economy an indivisible labor model in which the reallocation of labor across sectors emerges endogenously from sectoral labor productivity growth differentials. The setup is then used to generate the time path of labor shares in agriculture, manufacturing and services in individual countries. Finally, I perform a set of counterfactual analyzes in which the reallocation of labor across sectors is constrained endogenously. I find that the secular shift of labor towards the service sector was volatility-reducing in OECD countries during 1970–2006.

Download or read book New Perspectives on Structural Change written by Ludovico Alcorta and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2021-03-23 with total page 688 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: New Perspectives on Structural Change is a comprehensive edited volume that outlines both the historical roots and state-of-the-art debates on the role of structural change in the process of economic development, including both orthodox and heterodox perspectives and contributions from prominent scholars in this field. The volume consists of four main sections. The first section covers the theoretical foundations of the structural change literature. The second section presents an empirical overview of the major trends of structural change, using up-to-date data sources and methods. The third section presents a broad ranging empirical analysis of the drivers of structural change. The fourth section examines how processes such as inclusive growth, poverty reduction, productive employment, the global income distribution, and environmental sustainability are affected by structural change, and how they can be influenced by policy.

Download or read book Transmission of Domestic and External Shocks through Input Output Network Evidence from Korean Industries written by Dongyeol Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-24 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last two decades, manufacturing industries in Korea have become more concentrated, and interconnectedness across industries and to foreign countries has risen via vertical relationships and trade linkages. This paper investigates the transmission of economic shocks in such a highly concentrated and interconnected structure, focusing on the role of vertical and trade linkages and using the industry-level international input-output data. The results suggest that, first, the role of vertical and trade linkages in propagating growth shocks from both domestic sources and external sources is important. Second, the growth impact of a few key sources of economic shocks is relatively large. These findings highlight that economic shocks in a few key industries and/or major trading partners that are transmitted through vertical and trade linkages can lead to large swings in the overall economy. This paper contributes to the understanding of the potential interactions between the industrial structure and economic growth and stability.

Download or read book Real Sectoral Spillovers A Dynamic Factor Analysis of the Great Recession written by MissNan Li and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-09 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies changes in the transmission of common versus sectoral idiosyncratic shocks across different U.S. nonfarm business sectors during the Great Recession, and evaluates the cross-sectoral spillovers. Shocks are identified by dynamic factor methods. We find that the Great Recession is largely a time of heightened impact of common shocks— which accounts for 3/4 of aggregate volatility—and large spillovers of negative financerelated shocks. Moreover, in contrast with the earlier literature that failed to find a significant role of sectoral shocks (propagated through the input-output linkages across sectors) in driving variability in aggregate industry output, this study allows spillovers of shocks to operate through other mechanisms intertemporally. We find that prior to the recession the majority of aggregate fluctuations is explained by sector-specific shocks.

Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Finance written by George M. Constantinides and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-02-08 with total page 873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 12 articles in this second of two parts condense recent advances on investment vehicles, performance measurement and evaluation, and risk management into a coherent springboard for future research. Written by world leaders in asset pricing research, they present scholarship about the 2008 financial crisis in contexts that highlight both continuity and divergence in research. For those who seek authoritative perspectives and important details, this volume shows how the boundaries of asset pricing have expanded and at the same time have grown sharper and more inclusive. - Offers analyses by top scholars of recent asset pricing scholarship - Explains how the 2008 financial crises affected theoretical and empirical research - Covers core and newly developing fields

Download or read book The Model Thinker written by Scott E. Page and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2018-11-27 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Work with data like a pro using this guide that breaks down how to organize, apply, and most importantly, understand what you are analyzing in order to become a true data ninja. From the stock market to genomics laboratories, census figures to marketing email blasts, we are awash with data. But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models—from linear regression to random walks and far beyond—that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the Brazilian Economy written by Edmund Amann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-08-01 with total page 849 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brazil is a globally vital but troubled economy. This volume offers comprehensive insight into Brazil's economic development, focusing on its most salient characteristics and analyzing its structural features across various dimensions. This innovative Oxford Handbook provides an understanding of the economy's evolution over time and highlights the implications of the past trajectory and decisions for current challenges and opportunities. The opening section covers the country's economic history, beginning with the colonial economy, through import-substitution, to the era of neoliberalism. Second, it analyses Brazil's broader place in the global economy, and considers the ways in which this role has changed, and is likely to change, over coming years. Particular attention is given to the productive sectors of Brazil's economy, for example manufacturing, agriculture, services, energy, and infrastructure. In addition to discussions of regional differences within Brazil, socio-economic dimensions are examined. These include income distribution, human capital, environmental issues, and health. Also included is a discussion of Brazil in the world economy, such as the increase in "South-South" cooperation and trade as well as foreign direct investment. Last but not least is a discussion of the role of the Brazilian state in the economy, whether through state enterprises, competition policy, or corruption.

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Growth written by Philippe Aghion and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-12-20 with total page 1172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volumes 2A and 2B of The Handbook of Economic Growth summarize recent advances in theoretical and empirical work while offering new perspectives on a range of growth mechanisms, from the roles played by institutions and organizations to the ways factors beyond capital accumulation and technological change can affect growth. Written by research leaders, the chapters summarize and evaluate recent advances while explaining where further research might be profitable. With analyses that are provocative and controversial because they are so directly relevant to public policy and private decision-making, these two volumes uphold the standard for excellence in applied economics set by Volumes 1A and 1B (2005). - Offers definitive theoretical and empirical scholarship about growth economics - Empowers readers to evaluate the work of other economists and to plan their own research projects - Demonstrates the value of empirical testing, with its implicit conclusion that our understanding of economic growth will help everyone make better decisions

Download or read book Self Organized Criticality Three Decades Later written by Subhrangshu Sekhar Manna and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2022-01-28 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Financial Cycles and the Real Economy written by Ewald Nowotny and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-10-31 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is the link between the financial cycle - financial booms, followed by busts - and the real economy? What is the direction of this link and how salient is this connection? This unique book examines these fundamental questions and offers a paramoun

Download or read book Game Theory and Networks written by Surajit Borkotokey and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-01 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the consecutively held international conferences on “Game Theory and Networks”, organized by the Department of Mathematics, Dibrugarh University, India, in collaboration with the Economics Department of Queen’s University, Belfast, UK, during September 6–9, 2019 and September, 13–15 2018. The book includes chapters on network measures and network formation, application of network theory to contagion, biological data and finance and macroeconomics as expository articles. The book also contains chapters on fair allocation in the context of queuing, rationing and cooperative games with transferable utilities for engaged researchers. A few survey chapters on non-cooperative game theory, evolutionary game theory, mechanism design and social choice theory are also incorporated to cater to the needs of the beginners in the field. This book discusses the use of game theoretic tools and network models across disciplines: mathematics, statistics, economics, computer science, political science, sociology and psychology. It aims at providing a suitable learning experience to beginners on the basics of cooperative games, networks and mechanism design, as well as recent developments to research scholars having the basic knowledge of these topics.

Download or read book Rethinking Macroeconomics with Endogenous Market Structure written by Marco Mazzoli and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-12-19 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The birth and death of firms is one of the main features of the business cycle. Yet mainstream DGSE macroeconomic models mostly ignore this phenomenon, thereby excluding any potential impact of economic policy on the probability of the birth and death of firms. Those DGSE models that do allow for this phenomenon do so at the cost of drastic simplifications, which effectively rule out causal links between the strategic interaction of industrial firms and the macroeconomy. This innovative new book develops a bottom-up, agent-based framework that shows how strategic interactions at the level of oligopolistic firms, and even at the level of individuals, affect entire industrial sectors and the equilibrium of the macroeconomy. It will appeal to academic researchers and graduate students working in computational economics, agent-based modelling and econophysics, as well as mainstream economists interested in learning more about alternatives to DGSE models in macroeconomics.