Download or read book The German Residential Real Estate Market and the Presence of a Bubble written by and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2023-01-26 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Masterarbeit aus dem Jahr 2022 im Fachbereich VWL - Immobilienwirtschaft, Note: 1,7, Fachhochschule Kufstein Tirol (International Business Studies), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The starting point for this thesis and the associated question were price developments observable on the residential property market as well as increased media reporting. Against this background, the following question was examined with scientific methods within the framework of this work: Is a bubble formation recognisable on the German real estate market and what regional differences can be identified in answering this question? As a first step, price-influencing factors were examined in more detail and the price development relative to annual rent ratio, income and construction costs was examined. In order to be able to identify price bubbles on the residential property market in a measurable and comprehensible way, the price development was analysed in a second step with the mathematical procedure according to Diba and Grossmann, which uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The procedure is based on the premise that the price of a good is related to its fundamental value. To examine the price development in the residential property market, the fundamental value used for comparison purposes is derived from the development of the rent price index, the index of average gross monthly earnings and the construction cost index. The house price index was used as a price indicator for residential property. With the help of the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Test, the development of the various indices was examined and compared with regard to their degree of stationarity. This investigation was carried out for the overall German residential real estate market in the observation period 2010-2021 in order to obtain an up-to-date picture.

Download or read book Real Estate Bubble in Germany The German Residential Real Estate Market for the Presence of a Bubble written by Kilian Köberlein and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2022-09-01 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, , language: English, abstract: The starting point for this thesis and the associated question were price developments observable on the residential property market as well as increased media reporting. Against this background, the following question was examined with scientific methods within the framework of this thesis: Is a bubble formation recognisable in the German residential real estate market and what regional differences can be identified in answering this question? As a first step, price-influencing factors were examined in more detail and the price development relative to annual rent ratio, income and construction costs was examined. In addition, the effect of the ECB's interest rate policy and the interplay between property prices, monetary policy and asset price inflation were analysed. Hereby it became apparent that the significant price increase for residential property since 2010, and especially accelerated since 2016, can be explained against the backdrop of the extremely low interest rate level and the considerable expansion of money supply. In order to be able to identify price bubbles on the residential property market in a measurable and comprehensible way, the price development was analysed in a second step with the mathematical procedure according to Diba and Grossmann, which uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. The procedure is based on the premise that the price of a good is related to its fundamental value. To examine the price development in the residential property market, the fundamental value used for comparison purposes is derived from the development of the rent price index, the index of average gross monthly earnings and the construction cost index. The house price index was used as a price indicator for residential property. With the help of the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller Test, the development of the various indices was examined and compared with regard to their degree of stationarity. This investigation was carried out for the overall German residential real estate market in the observation period 2010-2021 in order to obtain an up-to-date picture. For the period under consideration from 01.01.2010 to 31.12.2021, a price bubble was not confirmed on the overall German residential property market.

Download or read book Real Estate in Germany Boom or Bubble written by Valonita Berisha and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2020-03-02 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2019 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,7, University of Applied Sciences Frankfurt am Main, language: English, abstract: The main question which results through the theme is: “Are German real estates overvalued or can the development on the market be explained by macro-economic factors?” To be able to answer this question it is necessary to firstly define what a bubble is and further analyze general criteria which can lead to it. After that an analyzation of possible indicators which are linked to the two largest housing bubbles: the The Subprime Crisis in in the USA of the former decade and the housing bubble in Japan in the middle of the 90s will be done and a comparison of those crises will be given. Based on those findings the development of the current real estate situation of Germany and an overall evaluation of possible legal and political instruments which are supposed to protect from a pricing bubble will be done. The findings are based on literature review and include an empirical part with expert interviews when it comes to the risk of having a housing bubble specifically in Germany.

Download or read book Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market written by Chen, Xi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Real Estate Price Bubbles as Irrational Exuberance A Critical Analysis of the German Real Estate Market written by Luca Dominikat and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2023-05-17 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2022 in the subject Economy - Real estate industry, grade: 1,3, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, language: English, abstract: The development of real estate prices is of extraordinary importance for the financial and economic system, as undesirable developments could endanger financial stability, as seen in the subprime crisis, which eventually evolved into a global financial crisis. The same month the dot-com bubble burst, the Nobel Prize winner and current book author Robert J. Shiller published the non-fictional, bestselling first edition of his book, named "Irrational Exuberance", in which he explains his research on the occurrences and the causes of historical financial crises, while supplementing the conclusions with aspects of behavioural finance and social studies. As Shiller’s assertions are mainly based on the US market, research has been conducted to clarify whether his housing index and the concept of irrational exuberance can be applied to the German real estate market. By the detailed consideration of selected aspects of the book in connection with the conception of academic literature, this thesis finds that his ideas can principally be transferred to assess whether the German real estate market currently exhibits bubbly tendencies. This assessment is conducted, however, there are limitations in the sole consideration as an indicator as well as in the critical evaluation of the German real estate market.

Download or read book Is There a Bubble in the German Housing Market written by Konstantin Kholodilin and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a period of stagnation that lasted for almost two decades, German house prices began to grow at an accelerated pace since late 2010. Real house prices that even had been declining in 2000-2008 started to climb up steeply from the second half of 2010, followed by a recovery of construction activities. This development raised concerns about the formation of a speculative house price bubble among German policy makers and central bankers. However, empirical evidence of a misalignment of house prices from their fundamentals is mixed.

Download or read book Understanding German Real Estate Markets written by Tobias Just and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-03 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real estate is the biggest real asset class in an economy, and Germany is the biggest economy in Europe. This implies opportunities as well as specific risks for investors and policy makers. As the German real estate markets have by and large been spared severe disruptions in the course of the economic crisis, many questions arise for investors and academics alike. What are the key institutional characteristics of the German real estate markets that make it different? What are the short and long-term drivers of demand and supply? Which regional and functional market segments are most likely to outperform in the next few years? What are the most important pitfalls for investors in Germany? This book gives answers to these and many more questions. The editors have invited a broad range of extensively knowledgeable practitioners and academics from across the relevant real estate spectrum, i.e. economic, legal, tax, planning and financing issues, to express their views. There is no better English publication that gives such a profound and simultaneously entertaining overview of Germany’s real estate markets.

Download or read book Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany written by Konstantin A. Kholodilin and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price bubbles in 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Along with testing bubbles for each city separately, we apply two new testing approaches: a panel data and principal components version of explosive root tests. We define bubble as an explosive growth of prices that is not supported by the rent increase. Therefore, to check for the existence of bubbles, we examine prices, rents, and price-to-rent ratios. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for the case of newly built housing. However, only in few urban housing markets prices decouple from their fundamental values. On the national level, we do not see evidence for speculative price movements. Overall, we find that the danger of a build-up of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is rather moderate.

Download or read book Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany written by Konstantin Arkadʹevič Cholodilin and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the light of the unconventional monetary policies conducted by the majority of large central banks around the world, there is an intense debate about their potential impact on the prices of capital assets. Particularly in Germany, skepticism about the sustainability of the recent policy by the European Central Bank is widely spread and concerns about the emergence of a speculative price bubble are raised. However, studies on bubbles in house prices are scarce and provide mixed results. Moreover, the evidence on German property prices is either based on national indices, which are neglecting city-level heterogeneity, or based on a non-representative sample of cities, or refers to a time period that is relatively short. The present study analyzes a comprehensive data set covering 127 large German cities over the last 20 years. Using state-of-the-art methodology we test for speculative bubbles both at a national and at the city level. Furthermore, we apply two new testing approaches: panel data and principal components versions of Chow type explosive root tests. In addition, we use a more precise definition of a speculative bubble: We define price movements as bubbles when explosive growth of prices is not supported by explosive increases of rents. We find evidence for explosive price increases in many cities, especially for newly built housing. However, only in some urban housing markets, prices decouple from their fundamental values as represented by rents. On the national level, no speculative price movements could be detected. Overall, our findings indicate that the threat of a speculative price bubble in the German housing market is moderate. While we find first evidence for speculative bubbles in selected urban markets, our results indicate that the German housing market overall still appears to be in good condition. Only the small market segment of newly built apartments is affected by potentially speculative investment behavior. Indeed, when accumulated over the period 2009-2013, the newly built housing makes up only 2.2% of the housing stock in 2013. Our results are largely in line with the assessment of most housing market analysts who find that the German housing market is quite stable. However, while most discussants argue that there is no need to worry at all, we conclude that decision makers are well advised to have a close eye on the housing market and to keep track of regional market developments. While it is true that unlike in Spain or the United States, the boom in the German housing market is not credit driven on aggregate, this does not necessarily mean that housing lending on the regional level has not increased substantially.

Download or read book Explaining Real Estate Prices in Germany written by Nicolas Heinitz and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates German residential housing prices on both a national and regional level covering Hamburg and Munich as two major cities. A qualitative analysis of real estate market and the German housing market in particular reveals that real estate markets are highly fragmented and that they feature unique characteristics. The main part of this thesis applies econometric approaches trying to explain house price movements and to identify possible price bubbles during the observation period from 1990 until 2011. For this purpose a ratio analysis, a regression model and a cointegration analysis are used. These three approaches lead to the conclusion that residential house prices are mainly driven by the corresponding rents and to some extent influenced by the unemployment rate and the number of households in certain regression models. Additionally, the examination of residential house prices reveals that prices on the national and regional level remain constant or even slightly fall in real terms. This fact and the comparison of house prices with several fundamental factors show that there is no evidence for a price bubble in Germany.

Download or read book German House Prices and the Effect of Monetary Policy written by Leisheng Wang and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: German house price has always been relatively quite stable during the last thirty years. However, according to 2013 October German Bundesbank report, housing prices in several German cities could be overvalued by between 5 percentages and 10 percentages. And the Bundesbank warned that this price level cannot be justified based on fundamental factors. Based on the unit root approach, we also detect the existence of rational bubble in German Residential housing market. There might be many reasons behind this overvaluation, but does the loose monetary policy adopted by ECB since 2008 financial crisis contribute to this overvaluation as well? The increase in money supply and the decrease of interest rate, which one plays a more important role for the housing price increase? By focusing on different economic factors that could contribute to house price rising, like stock market index, general household disposable income, GDP, money supply and mortgage rate, we try to analyze their contribution and effects on housing price with the aid of VAR model. The result of the VAR model shows that stock market index, disposable income and mortgage rate all contribute to housing price increase. However, based on Taylor rule, actually, the too low interest rate is the main driving factors for the rapid increase in housing price during last three years. As German monetary policy is largely determined by European Central Bank, it means the price increase might continue in the near future and the risk of overvaluation cannot be ignored.

Download or read book Investing in German Real Estate written by Florian Hackelberg and published by Haufe-Lexware. This book was released on 2021-02-03 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investing in one of the most promising real estate markets in Europe offers enormous opportunities. And as with every real estate market, in Germany too, the local framework conditions must be understood and their particularities must be adequately taken into account. The authors are renowned senior executives, real estate advisors and academics, who share here their extensive experience and real life insights from countless real estate investments, covering all aspects of a successful investment process in Germany. Includes: markets, the regulatory framework and investment guidelines. Contents: - Essentials for successful real estate investments in Germany - Macro-economic structure and dynamics of the German real estate market - Real estate investment, trends and strategies - Diverse submarkets: residential, offices, retail, hotel and nursing homes - Real estate legal, tax and audit frameworks - German REITS and ESG in real estate investments - Real estate M&A, financing, due diligence and valuations

Download or read book Impact of Public Policy Measures on the German Real Estate Market written by Christopher Yvo Oertel and published by Springer Gabler. This book was released on 2016-08-23 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Christopher Oertel studies the impact of public policy measures on the German real estate market and confirms the assumptions, which imply that a city can influence its economic position in relation to nearby cities in the short run by making use of this tax instrument. His analyses begin with an examination of the German residential real estate market from a consumption good perspective. The findings indicate that the home-ownership allowance had a distorting effect by capitalizing into residential real estate prices, although at lower than expected rates. Then the author studies the German residential real estate market from an investment good perspective. Investigating an important amendment of the German tenancy legislation, there is a positive, yet insignificant relationship between the tenancy law reform act and the development of the cap rate. The analysis is completed by focussing on the German office market and investigating how its rental levels and gross purchase prices are affected by changes in the municipal trade tax multiplier.

Download or read book Keeping the Bubble Alive written by Dominik Weiß and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Private Rental Sector in Germany written by Stefan Kofner and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-04-14 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the collapse of all kinds of real estate bubbles in the wake of the global financial crisis the private rental sector has been rediscovered by researchers and housing policy in many countries. Following the bursting of various mortgage bubbles everyone seems to be aware now of the disadvantages of an extremely high rate of homeownership. Conversely, the benefits of a diversified and flexible private rental sector are increasingly recognized. In this discussion the German private rental sector can serve as a model, not least because of its sheer relative size. Apart from that, the German private rental sector provides very different groups of tenants with very different housing qualities and provides for long term security of tenure. The basic question is: Can private renting be an alternative to living in their own home for broad layers of the population? Against this background, an outline is given on the current German housing system, the structure of the housing market and policies and reforms that have shaped the private rental sector (rent setting, dismissal protection, taxation, subsidies, housing allowances). A critical perspective on the matter is taken, barriers to a well-functioning housing market and private rental sector are identified and proposals for reform are presented.

Download or read book Keeping the Bubble Alive written by Dominik Weiß and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Financial Models written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-09-12 with total page 832 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 2 of the Encyclopedia of Financial Models The need for serious coverage of financial modeling has never been greater, especially with the size, diversity, and efficiency of modern capital markets. With this in mind, the Encyclopedia of Financial Models has been created to help a broad spectrum of individuals—ranging from finance professionals to academics and students—understand financial modeling and make use of the various models currently available. Incorporating timely research and in-depth analysis, Volume 2 of the Encyclopedia of Financial Models covers both established and cutting-edge models and discusses their real-world applications. Edited by Frank Fabozzi, this volume includes contributions from global financial experts as well as academics with extensive consulting experience in this field. Organized alphabetically by category, this reliable resource consists of forty-four informative entries and provides readers with a balanced understanding of today's dynamic world of financial modeling. Volume 2 explores Equity Models and Valuation, Factor Models for Portfolio Construction, Financial Econometrics, Financial Modeling Principles, Financial Statements Analysis, Finite Mathematics for Financial Modeling, and Model Risk and Selection Emphasizes both technical and implementation issues, providing researchers, educators, students, and practitioners with the necessary background to deal with issues related to financial modeling The 3-Volume Set contains coverage of the fundamentals and advances in financial modeling and provides the mathematical and statistical techniques needed to develop and test financial models Financial models have become increasingly commonplace, as well as complex. They are essential in a wide range of financial endeavors, and the Encyclopedia of Financial Models will help put them in perspective.