Download or read book The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited written by Guy Meredith and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-02 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising from risk premia or expectations errors. This paper extends McCallum (1994) to show how such a correlation can arise from the response of monetary policy to output and inflation, which are in turn affected by the exchange rate. The theoretical models considered all generate results that are consistent with the forward premium being a biased predictor of short-term exchange rate movements; the bias decreases, however, as the horizon of the exchange rate change lengthens. Another common feature of the models is that the true reduced-form equation for exchange rate changes contains variables other than the interest differential, providing a justification for "eclectic" relationships for forecasting exchange rates. The results, however, remain consistent with using uncovered interest parity as a building block for structural models.

Download or read book The forward premium puzzle revisited written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Time Horizon of the Forward Premium Puzzle written by Linh Thuy To and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, the forward premium anomaly is revisited. Not only that the forward exchange rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate, the direction is robustly determined as being opposite to the theoretical prediction under risk-neutral efficient markets hypothesis. The study takes a unique approach by analyzing the time horizon of the forward rate, ranging from one-month to twelve-month maturities, in seven major exchange rates. Classical explanations for the anomaly suggest opposing ideas on whether the maturity horizon affects the degree of bias of the forward rate. We find a consistent pattern describing that the severity of the anomaly increases with the maturity horizon, implying that time-varying risk premium and irrational expectations are still the best candidates for explaining the puzzle. Further, we test and find evidence supporting the time-varying risk premium explanation in a robust framework.

Download or read book A Guide to International Monetary Economics Third Edition written by Hans Visser and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2006-01-01 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Guide to International Monetary Economics is a systematic overview of exchange rate theories, an analysis of exchange rate systems and a discussion of exchange rate policies including discussion of the obstacles that may confront policymakers while running any particular system. This third edition emphasises recent developments such as the creation and expansion of the euro and the radical solution of dollarisation. The book is a concise treatment of this complex field and does not encumber the reader with a surfeit of potentially distracting Institutional details.

Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.

Download or read book Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark dollar Real Exchange Rate written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate. The interest rate rule, in conjunction with some standard assumptions, implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials. The weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule. An initial look at German data yields some support for the model"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Download or read book Three Essays in International Finance written by Byong-Ju Lee and published by Stanford University. This book was released on 2011 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.

Download or read book Publications Catalog written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of International Economics written by Gita Gopinath and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-02-22 with total page 773 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What conclusions can be drawn from recent advances in international trade and international macroeconomics? New datasets, theoretical models, and empirical studies have resulted in fresh questions about the world trade and payment system. These chapters--six on trade and six on international macroeconomics--reveal the richness that researchers have uncovered in recent years. The chapters on foreign trade present, among other subjects, new integrated multisector analytical frameworks, the use of gravity equations for the estimation of trade flows, the role of domestic institutions in shaping comparative advantage, and international trade agreements. On international macroeconomics, chapters explore the relation between exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables; risk sharing, allocation of capital across countries, and current account dynamics; and sovereign debt and financial crises. By addressing new issues while enabling deeper and sharper analyses of old issues, this volume makes a significant contribution to our understanding of the global economy. Systematically illuminates and interprets recent developments in research on international trade and international macroeconomics Focuses on newly developing questions and opportunities for future research Presents multiple perspectives on ways to understand the global economy

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""

Download or read book Economic Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 588 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Report on Currency and Finance written by Reserve Bank of India and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Aanwinsten van de Centrale Bibliotheek Queteletfonds written by Bibliothèque centrale (Fonds Quetelet) and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 916 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Artha Suchi written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book IMF Survey written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book International Currency Exposure written by Yin-Wong Cheung and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2017-07-14 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in debates about foreign currency exposure—the denomination of liabilities or assets in foreign currency. The foreign currency denomination of contracts in international transactions can lead to international currency exposure at the country level with important economic and policy implications. When debts are denominated in foreign currency and revenues in domestic currency, exchange rate fluctuations can result in balance sheet effects for countries with either net asset or liability positions. Moreover, currency mismatch between assets and liabilities can be a cause for crises in developing and emerging economies. This book looks at the issues surrounding foreign currency exposure in today's increasingly integrated world economy. The contributors draw on cross-country as well as country-specific data. They consider international currency risk after the Swiss franc ended its one-sided peg with the euro, for example, and the foreign exchange positions of firms in Turkey and Russia. Other contributors take macroeconomic perspectives, examining the potential effects of exchange rate realignment, the pressure to appreciate on countries with current account surpluses, and the currency exposure in international trade. Finally, contributors consider the issue from finance and political economy perspectives, addressing the phenomenon of the forward premium puzzle and discussing geopolitical aspects ascending currencies. Contributors Fatih Altunok, Huseyin Aytug, Agustín S. Bénétrix, Jörg Breitung, Paul De Grauwe, Eiji Fujii, Peter Garber, Juann H. Hung, Signe Krogstrup, Philip R. Lane, Katja Mann, Arif Oduncu, Gunther Schnabl, Maria V. Sokolova, Cédric Tille

Download or read book Los grandes problemas de M xico Crecimiento econ mico y equidad T IX written by Nora Lustig and published by El Colegio de Mexico AC. This book was released on 2010 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A setenta años de su fundación, El Colegio de México publica esta serie de dieciséis volúmenes, titulada Los grandes problemas de México, en la que se analizan los mayores retos de la realidad mexicana contemporánea, con el fin de definir los desafíos que enfrentamos en el siglo XXI y proponer algunas posibles respuestas y estrategias para resolver nuestros problemas como nación. Serie: Los grandes problemas de México. Vol. IX Crecimiento económico y equidad, se propone analizar los efectos que han tenido las reglas y políticas macroeconómicas sobre la volatilidad y la tasa de crecimiento del producto y, en un sentido más amplio, el impacto de las políticas públicas sobre la desigualdad y la pobreza. En su conjunto, los diez capítulos de este volumen están dedicados al análisis de los factores que explican el bajo crecimiento de la economía mexicana y los alcances de las reformas en términos de competitividad, equidad, estabilidad macroeconómica y sustentabilidad.