Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.

Download or read book The Formation of Expectations Inflation and the Phillips Curve written by Olivier Coibion and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues for a careful (re)consideration of the expectations formation process and a more systematic inclusion of real-time expectations through survey data in macroeconomic analyses. While the rational expectations revolution has allowed for great leaps in macroeconomic modeling, the surveyed empirical micro-evidence appears increasingly at odds with the full-information rational expectation assumption. We explore models of expectation formation that can potentially explain why and how survey data deviate from full-information rational expectations. Using the New Keynesian Phillips curve as an extensive case study, we demonstrate how incorporating survey data on inflation expectations can address a number of otherwise puzzling shortcomings that arise under the assumption of full-information rational expectations.

Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

Download or read book Expectations written by Arie Arnon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-20 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.

Download or read book An Experiment of the Formation of Expectations written by Barbara R. Bergmann and published by . This book was released on 1986* with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The formation of expectations written by Eelke de Jong and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Formation of Expectations written by Eelke de Jong and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Economic Ideas You Should Forget written by Bruno S. Frey and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-08 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reporting on cutting-edge advances in economics, this book presents a selection of commentaries that reveal the weaknesses of several core economics concepts. Economics is a vigorous and progressive science, which does not lose its force when particular parts of its theory are empirically invalidated; instead, they contribute to the accumulation of knowledge. By discussing problematic theoretical assumptions and drawing on the latest empirical research, the authors question specific hypotheses and reject major economic ideas from the “Coase Theorem” to “Say’s Law” and “Bayesianism.” Many of these ideas remain prominent among politicians, economists and the general public. Yet, in the light of the financial crisis, they have lost both their relevance and supporting empirical evidence. This fascinating and thought-provoking collection of 71 short essays written by respected economists and social scientists from all over the world will appeal to anyone interested in scientific progress and the further development of economics.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Survey Expectations written by Michael P. Clements and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations.

Download or read book Inflation and the Formation of Expectations written by Jacob Aharon Frenkel and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.

Download or read book The Formation of Expectations in an Uncertain Environment written by David Alan Easley and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 1798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Rational Expectations Revolution written by Preston J. Miller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.

Download or read book Expectations Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Download or read book Empirical Tests of the Formation of Expectations written by Ingvild Svendsen and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: