Download or read book The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Willem H. Buiter and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by John H. Cochrane and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-01-17 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Inflation, in which all prices and wages in an economy rise, is mysterious. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, and the price of oil goes up, the mechanism is no great mystery-supply and demand often work pretty visibly. But if you ask the grocer why the price of bread is higher, he or she will blame the wholesaler, who will blame the baker, who will blame the wheat supplier, and so on. Perhaps the ultimate cause is a government printing more money, but there is really no way to know this for certain but to sit down in an office with statistics, armed with some decent economic theory. But current economic theory doesn't really explain why we haven't seen inflation for so long, and more and more economists think that current theory doesn't hold together, or provide much guidance for how central banks should behave if inflation does break out. Many also worry that central banks have much less power over the economy than they think they do, and much less understanding of the mechanism behind what power they do have. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is a comprehensive new approach to monetary policy. Economist John Cochrane argues that money has value because the government accepts it for tax payments. This insight, he argues, leads to a deep re-reading of monetary policy and institutions. Inflation comes when a government is unable to repay its debts, rather than from mismanagement of the split of debt between money and bonds. In the book, he will analyze institutional design, historical episodes, and compare fiscal theory to the Keynesian and new-Keynesian theory based on interest rate targets, and to monetarism. The book offers an overview and introduction to the range of contemporary monetary economics and history of thought as well as the fiscal theory"--

Download or read book A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Mr.Roger Farmer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the claim that, in a popular class of theoretical models, the price level is sometimes determined by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. The models where this claim has been established assume that all decisions are made by an infinitely-lived representative agent. We present an alternative, arguably more realistic model, populated by sixty-two generations of people. We calibrate our model to an income profile from U.S. data and we show that the FTPL breaks down. In our model, the price level and the real interest rate are indeterminate, even when monetary and fiscal policy are both active. Our findings challenge established views about what constitutes a good combination of fiscal and monetary policies.

Download or read book Puzzles of Inflation Money and Debt Applying the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Thomas S. Coleman and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-11-29 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) provides an update and revision of monetary theory to address puzzles raised by the failure of both the new Keynesian theory (commonly used by central bankers) and neoclassical monetarism (in particular, the quantity theory of money as interpreted by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz)—puzzles such as the low inflation that followed the sustained expansionary monetary policies post-2008. We aim to summarize and explain the FTPL as developed by Eric Leeper, John Cochrane, and others. The FTPL builds on neoclassical monetarism by observing that government liabilities—bonds, notes, bills, and currency—derive their value from the assets that back these liabilities. These assets are chiefly the present value of future tax revenues, minus government spending other than that part of spending used to service the liabilities themselves. This net “profit” of the government is called the primary surplus. This primary surplus can be expressed in real terms (a quantity of goods and services, rather than a money amount). The total real value of the bonds is thus the total real value of the assets backing the bonds: the present value of all future real primary surpluses (which we shorten to PVFS, present value of future surpluses). In a very important sense, the FTPL harkens back to commodity-based theories of money, except now the “commodity” is the real value of future surpluses earned by the government. We can then solve for the price level. It is simply the nominal value of the bonds (the face value or number of bonds issued) divided by the real value of the bonds (the PVFS). If the nominal value of the bonds is held constant and the underlying asset (PVFS) becomes less valuable, prices go up. If the PVFS becomes more valuable, prices go down. We thus calculate the value of “money” (including government liabilities of all maturities) the way one would calculate the value of any security: through discounted cash flow analysis. Note that this approach is consistent with the QTM because, if money is defined in the traditional way as currency and demand deposits and we now hold the PVFS (the backing of the money) constant, then the price level is proportional to the amount of money in circulation. The FTPL is a more complete theory, however, because (1) it incorporates all government liabilities, not traditional money alone, and (2) because it is forward-looking and dynamic rather than considering only conditions in the present.

Download or read book The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Willem H. Buiter and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is not common for an entire scholarly literature to be based on a fallacy, that is, 'on faulty reasoning; misleading or unsound argument'. The 'fiscal theory of the price level', recently re-developed by Woodford, Cochrane, Sims and others, is an example of a fatally flawed research programme. The source of the fallacy is an economic misspecification. The proponents of the fiscal theory of the price level do not accept the fundamental proposition that the government's intertemporal budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the economy-wide endogenous variables. Instead they require it to be satisfied only in equilibrium. This economic misspecification has implications for the mathematical or logical properties of the equilibria supported by models purporting to demonstrate the properties of the fiscal approach. These include: overdetermined (internally inconsistent) equilibria; anomalies like the apparent ability to price things that do not exist; the need for arbitrary restrictions on the exogenous and predetermined variables in the government's budget constraint; and anomalous behaviour of the equilibrium' price sequences, including behaviour that will ultimately violate physical resource constraints. The issue is of more than academic interest. Policy conclusions could be drawn from the fiscal theory of the price level that would be harmful if they influenced the actual behaviour of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The fiscal theory of the price level implies that a government could exogenously fix its real spending, revenue and seigniorage plans, and that the general price level would adjust the real value of its contractual nominal debt obligations so as to ensure government solvency. When reality dawns, the result could be painful fiscal tightening, government default, or unplanned recourse to the inflation tax.

Download or read book Puzzles of Inflation Money and Debt Applying the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Thomas S. Coleman and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Roger E.A. Farmer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We demonstrate that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) cannot be used to determine the price level uniquely in the overlapping generations (OLG) model. We provide two examples of OLG models, one with three 3-period lives and one with 62-period lives. Both examples are calibrated to an income profile chosen to match the life-cycle earnings process in U.S. data estimated by Guvenen et al. (2015). In both examples, there exist multiple steady-state equilibria. Our findings challenge established views about what constitutes a good combination of fiscal and monetary policies. As long as the primary deficit or the primary surplus is not too large, the fiscal authority can conduct policies that are unresponsive to endogenous changes in the level of its outstanding debt. Monetary and fiscal policy can both be active at the same time.

Download or read book Central Banks as Fiscal Players written by Willem Buiter and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-11-12 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is well known that the balance sheets of most major central banks significantly expanded in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007-2011, but the consequences of this expansion are not well understood. This book develops a unified framework to explain how and why central bank balance sheets have expanded and what this shift means for fiscal and monetary policy. Buiter addresses a number of key issues in monetary economics and public finance, including how helicopter money works, when modern monetary theory makes sense, why the Eurosystem has a potentially fatal design flaw, why the fiscal theory of the price level is a fallacy and how to escape from the zero lower bound.

Download or read book A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Mr.Roger Farmer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-11 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the claim that, in a popular class of theoretical models, the price level is sometimes determined by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. The models where this claim has been established assume that all decisions are made by an infinitely-lived representative agent. We present an alternative, arguably more realistic model, populated by sixty-two generations of people. We calibrate our model to an income profile from U.S. data and we show that the FTPL breaks down. In our model, the price level and the real interest rate are indeterminate, even when monetary and fiscal policy are both active. Our findings challenge established views about what constitutes a good combination of fiscal and monetary policies.

Download or read book The Deficit Myth written by Stephanie Kelton and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2020-06-09 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New York Times Bestseller The leading thinker and most visible public advocate of modern monetary theory -- the freshest and most important idea about economics in decades -- delivers a radically different, bold, new understanding for how to build a just and prosperous society. Stephanie Kelton's brilliant exploration of modern monetary theory (MMT) dramatically changes our understanding of how we can best deal with crucial issues ranging from poverty and inequality to creating jobs, expanding health care coverage, climate change, and building resilient infrastructure. Any ambitious proposal, however, inevitably runs into the buzz saw of how to find the money to pay for it, rooted in myths about deficits that are hobbling us as a country. Kelton busts through the myths that prevent us from taking action: that the federal government should budget like a household, that deficits will harm the next generation, crowd out private investment, and undermine long-term growth, and that entitlements are propelling us toward a grave fiscal crisis. MMT, as Kelton shows, shifts the terrain from narrow budgetary questions to one of broader economic and social benefits. With its important new ways of understanding money, taxes, and the critical role of deficit spending, MMT redefines how to responsibly use our resources so that we can maximize our potential as a society. MMT gives us the power to imagine a new politics and a new economy and move from a narrative of scarcity to one of opportunity.

Download or read book Institutions Development Economic Growth written by İsmail Şiriner and published by IJOPEC PUBLICATION. This book was released on 2018-09-28 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-03-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.

Download or read book Modeling Monetary Economies written by Bruce Champ and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-01-15 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This upper-level undergraduate textbook, now in its second editon, approaches monetary economics using the classical paradigm of rational agents in a market setting. Too often monetary economics has been taught as a collection of facts about existing institutions for students to memorize. By teaching from first principles, the authors aim to instruct students not only in existing monetary policies and institutions but also in what policies and institutions may or should exist in the future. The text builds on a simple, clear monetary model and applies this framework consistently to a wide variety of monetary questions. The authors have added in this second edition new material on speculative attacks on currencies, social security, currency boards, central banking alternatives, the payments system, and the Lucas model of price surprises. Discussions of many topics have been extended, presentations of data greatly expanded, and new exercises added.

Download or read book Economic Policy Frameworks Revisited written by Cesare Imbriani and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Quantitative Easing as a Highway to Hyperinflation written by Imad A. Moosa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the topical issue of whether the current environment in the US and other major countries, where quantitative easing is used to boost the economy, is conducive to the emergence of hyperinflation. This is a controversial and highly debated issue. Using both economics and history, the author challenges the view that quantitative easing will not lead to hyperinflation and argues that hyperinflation, or at least high inflation, is likely to appear eventually. The book examines all the propositions put forward for and against the eventuality of hyperinflation in the US, using illustrations based on actual and simulated data. The analysis leads to the conclusion that the current fiscal position of the US government, particularly the levels of external debt and unfunded liabilities, will not be rectified without resorting to inflationary financing. The book would be useful not only for policy makers and economists but also for non-specialist observers.

Download or read book Handbook of Research on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region written by Erdo?du, M. Mustafa and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 618 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the 1970s, globalization has created an economic environment of interdependency between nations. Now, many countries in European and the MENA (Middle East and Northern Africa) regions must grapple with the need to increase public revenue while maneuvering through a global “race-to-the-bottom” tax competition. The Handbook of Research on Public Finance in Europe and the MENA Region explores economic development and public finance by providing critical insight into the use of public finance and policy and illuminating the intricacies of these topics through discussion of theory, empirical work, and policy objectives. This book is ideally designed for business professionals, policy makers, financers, students and researchers in the fields of public policy and economics.

Download or read book IMF Staff Papers Volume 56 No 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-07-31 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.