Download or read book The Extratropical Transition of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in a Changing Climate written by Chunyong Jung and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hurricanes and Climate Change written by Jennifer M. Collins and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-20 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides research that shows tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and with the strongest hurricanes. Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Arising from the 5th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change, this book contains new research on topics related to hurricanes and climate change. Bringing together international leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate, the book discusses new research and expresses opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity.
Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry
Download or read book Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate written by Jennifer Collins and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean written by George W. Cry and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Midlatitude Synoptic Meteorology written by Gary Lackmann and published by American Meteorological Society. This book was released on 2013-01-22 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past decade has been characterized by remarkable advances in meteorological observation, computing techniques, and data-visualization technology. Mesoscale Synoptic Meteorology links theoretical concepts to modern technology and facilitates the meaningful application of concepts, theories, and techniques using real data. As such, it both serves those planning careers in meteorological research and weather prediction and provides a template for the application of modern technology in classroom and laboratory settings.
Download or read book Examining Changes in North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones with Climate Change written by Allison Claire Michaelis and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Literature Review Effect of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones written by Kopal Arora and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essay from the year 2011 in the subject Geography / Earth Science - Meteorology, Aeronomy, Climatology, grade: 11.0, University of Exeter, language: English, abstract: Since tropical cyclones(TCs) are one of the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property, it is important to understand if there is any change in the frequency and intensity of TCs due to anthropogenic climate change. IPCC considers 0.25-0.5 C increase in warming over tropical oceans over the past few decades due to increase in greenhouse gas concentration over past 50years. During 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, a statement was released on the connection between the TCs and anthropogenic climate change. The statement was in response to the increase in number of recent high-impact TC events which includes, 10 land falling Tcs in Japan in 2004, 5 TCs affecting the Cook island in a five week period during 2005, cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and violently active Atlantic TC season during the period of 2004 to 2005, including the catastrophic socioeconomic impact of Hurricane Katrina. A few recent articles [1] have noted a large increase in TC’s intensity, frequency and wind-speeds in some regions during past 5 decades, which could be attributed to the increase in the concentration of green house gases in past 50years. However, other studies explain this noticed increase as a result of better observations made and instruments used, making it easier to detect TCs. Consensus statement by the International workshop on TC-6 reported uncertain conclusions about the influence of climate change on TC after taking into account evidence both for and against. It was concluded that no TC could be solely attributed to the anthropogenic climate change. Model and theory predicts 3-5% increase in wind speed per degree C increase in SST. But, there is inconsistency between the small change in wind speed projected by theory and modelling versus large variations reported by some observational studies. Significant limitation of measurements over some regions make detection of trends difficult. It was suggested that if increase in SST continues, susceptibility to TC storm surge flooding would strengthen.
Download or read book Climate Change Effects on the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High Resolution Global Simulations written by Allison Claire Michaelis and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Extratropical Transitions in the North Atlantic with Special Reference to Hurricane Igor written by Athena Masson and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
Download or read book Analysis of Extratropical Transition of Cyclones in the North Atlantic Ocean Using Geostationary Satellite Imagery written by Amy Rebecca Wood and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin often undergo a process called extratropical transition (ET) and transform from warm-core to cold-core systems while retaining strong winds, heavy rainfall, and large ocean waves. Infrared satellite imagery from channels 2 and 4 of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) were used to examine key structural changes, synoptic interactions, and loss of deep centered convection in order to determine onset and completion of ET. The primary indicator for ET onset in 75% of cases was found to be a persistent increase in storm asymmetry along with the appearance of warm frontogenesis in its northern region. Cold frontogenesis in the southern portion of the storm was the secondary indicator for declaring onset of ET. Completion of ET was marked by the loss of centered deep convection for all cases. The average ET transition time was 18 hours for 60% of the cases.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones written by Melanie Bieli and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The model, a logistic regression with elastic net regularization, was developed with a focus on predictive performance as well as physical interpretability and thus resides at the interface between machine learning and traditional statistics. It uses eight predictors that characterize the storm and its environment, the most important ones being latitude and sea surface temperature. The model is shown to have skill in forecasting ET at lead times up to two days, and it can predict the phase evolution of storms that undergo ET as well as of storms that remain tropical throughout their lifetimes. When used as an instantaneous diagnostic of a storm's tropical/extratropical status, the model performs about as well as the CPS in the western North Pacific and better than the CPS in the North Atlantic, and it predicts the timings of the transitions better than the CPS in both basins. The model can be integrated into statistical tropical cyclone risk models, or may be applied to provide baseline guidance for operational forecasts.
Download or read book Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-07-28 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Download or read book Using Downscaled Global Climate Models to Perform a Long Term Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and Their Impacts on Coastal Inundation to New York City written by Andra Reed and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and Gulf Coasts will be affected by both how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (1851 CE present) to accurately assess long-term trends of low-frequency variability in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, I use synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models; driving climate conditions span 850 CE 2005 CE. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, I investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, I find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic basin. Consistent with previous studies, I find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends. Additionally, I investigate the changing risk of inundation to the United States Atlantic coast, dependent upon both storm surges during tropical cyclones, and the rising sea levels on which those surges occur. Focusing our study on New York City, I compare pre-anthropogenic era (850 CE 1800 CE) and anthropogenic era (1970 CE 2005 CE) storm-surge model results, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. I find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m at The Battery in New York City (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to less than 25 years in the anthropogenic era. Finally, as sea levels continue to rise over the next several centuries, we expect additional risk of coastal flooding for the United States Atlantic Coast in general, and for New York City in particular, associated with storm surge events. I thus turn to an analysis of future projections of storm surge heights in New York City through the year 2300 in the context of my long-term historical analysis. Using CMIP5 model projections that extend to 2300 CE, I generate large datasets of downscaled tropical cyclones. Combining storm surge model results with several potential sea level rise scenarios for the New York City region through the year 2300, I find greatly increased risk of flooding for the metropolitan area. I show that mean flood heights are projected to increase by ~0.24 to ~0.97 meters across three CMIP5 models through the year 2100. By 2300, mean flood heights could increase by as much as ~2.85- ~4.99 meters. These results are significant at the 99% confidence level. I show that, although it is possible that shifting storm tracks could spare NYC from increases in severe storm surge heights in coming centuries, rising relative sea levels are likely to greatly increase overall flood heights, regardless of changes in TCs and their resultant storm-surge heights. Results from this research indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies in our coastal communities, especially in the New York City region.
Download or read book Changes in Extratropical Cyclone Dynamics in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate written by Edgar Dolores Tesillos and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
