Download or read book The Explanatory Power of Business Cycle Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenlander and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 726 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Explanatory Power of Business Cycle Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 21st CIRET Conference was held in Somerset West, near Cape Town, about six months before the new constitutional elections were scheduled for South Africa. Because of this historically important event, the conference participants were informed about the economic and political problems of the country by Servaas van der Berg and Hennie Kotze, from the University of Stellenbosch.
Download or read book Handbook of Survey Based Business Cycle Analysis written by Georg Goldrian and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. - Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies on the consequence of the survey results is presented. The significance of the surveys applied equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.
Download or read book Business Cycle Analysis by Means of Economic Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Tendency Surveys A Handbook written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2003-03-20 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.
Download or read book Business Cycle Theory written by Günter Gabisch and published by Springer. This book was released on 1989-04-14 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Is the business cycle obsolete?" This often cited title of a book edited by Bronfenbren ner with the implicit affirmation of the question reflected the attitude of mainstream macroeconomics in the 1960s regarding the empirical relevance of cyclic motions of an economy. The successful income policies, theoretically grounded in Keynesian macroec onomics, seemed to have eased or even abolished the fluctuations in Western economies which motivated studies of many classical and neoclassical economists for more than 100 years. The reasoning behind the conviction that business cycles would increasingly be come irrelevant was rather simple: if an economy fluctuates for whatever reason, then it is almost always possible to neutralize these cyclic motions by means of anticyclic demand policies. From the 1950s until the mid-1960s business cycle theory had often been consid ered either as an appendix to growth theory or as an academic exercise in dynamical economics. The common business cycle models were essentially multiplier-accelerator models whose dependence on particular parameter values (in order to exhibit oscillatory motion) suggested a rather improbable occurrence of persistent fluctuations. The obvi ous success in compensating business cycles in those days prevented intensive concern with the occurrence of cycles. Rather, business cycle theory turned into stabilization theory which investigated theoretical possibilities of stabilizing a fluctuating economy. Many macroeconomic textbooks appeared in the 1960s which consequently identified business cycle theory with inquiries on the possibilities to stabilize economies by means of active fiscal or monetary policies.
Download or read book Social and Structural Change written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-04 with total page 647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1998, this wide-ranging and in-depth volume from specialists in economics and statistics examines leading indicators, the timing of cyclical turning points, firm behaviour, financial indicators, economic policy recommendations, transition economies and the service sector in relation to Finland’s bid for European Monetary Union membership.
Download or read book Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by Turtleback. This book was released on 1995-01-01 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Kirsten Ralf and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When writing the preface the main work has been done. What remains is thanking all those people who directly or indirectly contributed to the out come. My thanks go to my family and friends for their encouragement towards the completion of this book. Among the academic profession, I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Dr. Harald Scherf, my academic teacher, first. During the years at Hamburg University I benefitted especially from his profound knowledge of Keynesian theory. His way of examining an argument in an unbiased way helped me a lot to carry out the reseach I wanted to do. His confidence enabled me to finish the work. A part of the book was written while I was a visiting fellow at DELTA, Paris, where I am particularly indebted to Roger Guesnerie. I have benefitted from his encouragement, advice, and gentle criticism during discussions and seminars, especially on the topic of the time structure of economic dynamics. I would like to acknowledge the hospitality and stimulating atmosphere at DELTA. Different versions of the manuscript, or parts of it have been read by Prof. Dr. Manfred Holler, Dr. Jorg Bibow and Dr. Gabriele Kasten. Their comments and suggestions were quite helpul and are gratefully acknowledged. Additionally, I have to thank Prof. Dr. M. Funke and Prof. Dr. V. Timmer mann.
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Download or read book Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis written by Jan-Egbert Sturm and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-03-30 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A pilot ?ying to a distant city needs to check his position, ?ight path and weather conditions, and must constantly keep his plane under control to land safely.TheIfosurveydataprovideadvanceinformationonchangingeconomic weather conditions and help keep the economy under control. To be sure, by their very nature they only provide short-term information. But like a plane, the economy will not be able to reach its long-term goals if it strays o? course in the short term. The Ifo survey data provide the most comprehensive and accurate, - to-date database in Europe on the state of the business cycle, and the Ifo climate indicator, sometimes simply called “The Ifo”, is the most frequently cited indicator of its kind in Europe. Both the European stock market and theeuroreacttoourindicator.Ifo’smethodologyfordeterminingthebusiness climateindicatorhasbeenexportedtomorethan?ftycountries,mostrecently toTurkeyandChina.TheIfopeoplewereproudtohavebeenaskedtohelpset up polling systems in these countries. It is said that the Chinese government relies more on their “Ifo indicator” than on their o?cial accounting statistics.
Download or read book Use of Survey Data for Industry Research and Economic Policy Selected Papers Presented at the 24th CIRET Conference Wellington New Zealand 1999 written by Karl Heinrich Oppenlander and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 591 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2000: This text offers a comprehensive collection of selected papers from the 24th Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) conference. Areas selected include leading indicators and turning points, classifications of business cycles, survey data and policy decisions, attitudes and behaviour of firms, and economic forecasting. The text aims to be of interest to all those concerned with the use of business and consumer surveys in a global context.
Download or read book Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2017-03-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook on Economic Tendency Surveys provides best practices and harmonized principles on how to conduct economic tendency survey from sample selection, questionnaire design, survey questions, survey execution, to data processing and dissemination. It also provides examples of uses of these surveys, for example, for composite tendency indicators. These surveys provide qualitative information that cannot be collected using other quantitative statistical methods. They also serve as an integral part of an early warning system because they provide information about the occurrence and timing of upturns and downturns of the economy.
Download or read book Conditional Moment Estimation of Nonlinear Equation Systems written by Joachim Inkmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of nonlinear systems has two important advantages over conventional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation: GMM estimation usually requires less restrictive distributional assumptions and remains computationally attractive when ML estimation becomes burdensome or even impossible. This book presents an in-depth treatment of the conditional moment approach to GMM estimation of models frequently encountered in applied microeconometrics. It covers both large sample and small sample properties of conditional moment estimators and provides an application to empirical industrial organization. With its comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of the subject which includes topics like bootstrapping and empirical likelihood techniques, the book addresses scientists, graduate students and professionals in applied econometrics.
Download or read book Interest Rate Volatility and Expectations about the Business Cycle written by María Isabel Martínez Serna and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One explanation for the usefulness of financial variables as tools for economic forecasting is that they embody the expectations of economic agents about the future state of the economy. In this paper, we test whether interest rate volatility contains information on the expectations of agents which are directly measured by confidence indicators. For the sake of robustness, we use several different expectation indicators for the two countries we analyze, the US and Germany: the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey and the Purchase Management Index for the US and the Economic Sentiment Indicator, the IFO Business Climate and ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany. We propose using a forward-looking measure of volatility: the implied volatility of one year cap options. We find that implied volatility adds explanatory power to the yield spread and to changes in the short rate, which are typical predictors of the business cycle, and outperforms realized volatility.
Download or read book Leading Indicators and Business Cycle Surveys written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by Gower Publishing Company, Limited. This book was released on 1984 with total page 684 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in macro-economic policy; Implication of survey data for business cycle analysis; Consumer surveys; Investment surveys; Uses of business.
