Download or read book The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country written by Taline Koranchelian and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country written by Nicola Spatafora and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Questions about external competitiveness, exchange rate misalignment, and the appropriate exchange rate policy feature prominently in the Russian policy debate. This paper furthers the debate by estimating empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER)-that is, the rate consistent with the long-run economic fundamentals-and sheds light on the extent to which exchange rate policy should be changed. The paper confirms that the ERER reflects both productivity and the terms of trade. It suggests that Russia should target a significant medium-term current account deterioration and a real appreciation perhaps exceeding 10 percent. However, this latter number remains very sensitive to the assumed long-run oil prices.
Download or read book Response of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate to Real Disturbances in Developing Countries written by Mr.Mohsin S. Khan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a simple dependent - economy framework, this paper outlines the links between the equilibrium real exchange rate and some of its fundamental exogenous determinants, mainly terms of trade movements and commercial policy changes. Drawing on existing studies of trade flows in developing countries, it is possible to derive plausible quantitative ranges for the response of the equilibrium real exchange rate to both external and policy-induced shocks. The results should be particularly relevant in designing real exchange rate targets and rules that allow for movements in the equilibrium real exchange rate in response to various shocks.
Download or read book Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate written by Mr.Tarhan Feyzioglu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An equilibrium exchange rate is here defined as the level that is consistent with simultaneous internal and external balances as specified in Montiel (1996). Exogenous “fundamental” variables determining these balances are identified. Along the lines of Edwards (1994), a reduced form is estimated with the cointegration technique for Finland for the period 1975-95. The estimation produced a reasonable set of equilibrium exchange rates that appreciate with positive shocks to the terms of trade, world real interest rates, and the productivity differential between Finland and its trading partners.
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Download or read book Equilibrium Exchange Rates written by Ronald MacDonald and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.
Download or read book The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Questions about external competitiveness, exchange rate misalignment, and the appropriate exchange rate policy feature prominently in the Russian policy debate. This paper furthers the debate by estimating empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER)-that is, the rate consistent with the long-run economic fundamentals-and sheds light on the extent to which exchange rate policy should be changed. The paper confirms that the ERER reflects both productivity and the terms of trade. It suggests that Russia should target a significant medium-term current account deterioration and a real appreciation perhaps exceeding 10 percent. However, this latter number remains very sensitive to the assumed long-run oil prices.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity exporting Countries written by A. Blundell-Wignall and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Exchange Rate Assessments written by Mr.Irineu E. de Carvalho Filho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals written by Luca Antonio Ricci and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper employs newly constructed measures for productivity differentials, external imbalances, and commodity terms of trade to estimate a panel cointegrating relationship between real exchange rates and a set of fundamentals for a sample of 48 industrial countries and emerging markets. It finds evidence of a strong positive relation between the CPI-based real exchange rate and commodity terms of trade. The estimated impact of productivity growth differentials between traded and nontraded goods, while statistically significant, is small. Increases in net foreign assets and in government consumption tend to be associated with appreciating real exchange rates.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Analysis in Support of IMF Surveillance written by Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-09-08 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate analysis lies at the center of the IMF's surveillance mandate and policy advice, as well as in the design of IMF-supported programs, and IMF staff are called upon to analyze a variety of exchange rate issues in various member countries, both small and large, from the least economically developed to the most advanced, and from those whose currencies circulate only locally to those whose currencies are of global importance. This book provides a sample of the topics the IMF staff typically examine under the broad rubric of exchange rate analysis, encompassing several topics: determination and impact of the real exchange rate, assessing competitiveness and the equilibrium real exchange rate in specific countries or country groups, and considerations in the choice of exchange rate regime.--Publisher's description.
Download or read book Estimation of a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model for Ghana written by Elena Loukoianova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-07-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper estimates a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model for Ghana. Regression results show that most of the REER''s long-run behavior can be explained by real GDP growth, real interest rate differentials (both relative to trading-partner countries), and the real world prices of Ghana''s main export commodities. On the basis of these fundamentals, the REER in late 2006 was found to be very close to its estimated equilibrium level. The results also suggest, that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within two to three years.
Download or read book Exchange Rate Misalignment written by Lawrence E. Hinkle and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and "dollarization."
Download or read book Exchange Rate Assessments written by Mr.Jaewoo Lee and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-04-07 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economies. This Occasional Paper summarizes the methodologies that underpin the expanded analysis.
Download or read book Toward an Explanation of National Price Levels written by Irving B. Kravis and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The purpose of this paper is to call attention to the need for a theory of comparative national price levels and to explore some of the elements that seem to belong to such a theory. Most theoretical discussions have maintained that national price levels tend towards equality and focus on presumably temporary divergences from equality. Yet strong evidence has been accumulating that there are large and long-standing differences inprice levels, the highest of which are more than twice those of countries with the lowest prices. Long-run price level differences are most clearly related to levels of real per capita output, with richer countries having higher price levels.These differences have been explained as resulting from greater advantages in productivity for the wealthier countries in goods production, mostly tradable, than in services production, mostly nontradable. The differences in relative productivity may be in total factor productivity or only in labor productivity, reflecting the greater capital intensity of goods production and possibly a higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in goods production.We find in the empirical analysis that a large part of the differences in price levels can be explained by structural factors such as real GDP per capita, the degree of openness of the economy, and the share of nontradable goods in output. The only non-structural factor emerging from a preliminary analysis of several of these was the rate of growth of the quantity of money"--NBER website
Download or read book Keynes Cocoa and Copper written by Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether the real exchange rates of commodity-exporting countries and the real prices of their commodity exports move together over time. Using IMF data on the world prices of 44 commodities and national commodity export shares, we construct new monthly indices of national commodity export prices for 58 countries over 1980-2002. A long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real commodity prices is found for about two-fifths of the commodity-exporting countries. Also, the behavior of the real exchange rate of commodity currencies is found to be independent of the nominal exchange rate regime. The average half-life of adjustment of real exchange rates to commodity-price-augmented purchasing power parity is found to be about eight months, which is much shorter than Rogoff’s (1996) consensus estimate of three to five years, and provides an important missing piece of the PPP puzzle.
Download or read book The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates written by Prakash Apte and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We characterize the equilibrium exchange rate in a general equilibrium economy without imposing strong restrictions on the output processes, preferences, or commodity market imperfections. The nominal exchange rate is determined by differences in initial wealths the currencies of richer countries tend to be overvalued by PPP standards and by differences of marginal indirect utilities of total nominal spending. Changes in the exchange rate mirror differences in growth rates of real spending weighted by relative risk-aversion (which can be time-varying and can differ across countries), and in the case of non-homothetic utility functions, differences in inflation rates computed from marginal spending weights. Thus, standard regression or cointegration tests of PPP suffer from missing-variables biases and ignore variations in risk aversions across countries and over time. We also present cointegration tests of the version of the model with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and homothetic preferences. When nominal spending is given an independent role (next to prices) in the short-term dynamics, both PPP and the CRRA model become acceptable.
