Download or read book At the Edge of Uncertainty written by Michael Brooks and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2014-06-26 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The atom. The Big Bang. DNA. Natural selection. All ideas that have revolutionised science - and that were dismissed out of hand when they first appeared. The surprises haven't stopped: here, Michael Brooks, bestselling author of 13 Things that Don't Make Sense, investigates the new wave of unexpected insights that are shaping the future of scientific discovery. Through eleven radical new insights, Brooks takes us to the extreme frontiers of what we understand about the world. He journeys from the observations that might rewrite our history of the universe, through the novel biology behind our will to live, and on to the physiological root of consciousness. Along the way, he examines how the underrepresentation of women in clinical trials means that many of the drugs we use are less effective on women than men and more likely to have adverse effects, explores how merging humans with other species might provide a solution to the shortage of organ donors, and finds out if there is such a thing as the will to live. When we think about science, we often think of iron-clad facts. But today more than ever, our unshakeable truths have been shaken apart. As Michael Brooks reveals, the best science is about open-mindedness, imagination and a love of mind-boggling adventures at the edge of uncertainty.

Download or read book Questions Are the Answer written by Hal Gregersen and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2018-11-13 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 2018 Nautilus Book Awards Silver Winner What if you could unlock a better answer to your most vexing problem—in your workplace, community, or home life—just by changing the question? Talk to creative problem-solvers and they will often tell you, the key to their success is asking a different question. Take Debbie Sterling, the social entrepreneur who created GoldieBlox. The idea came when a friend complained about too few women in engineering and Sterling wondered aloud: "why are all the great building toys made for boys?" Or consider Nobel laureate Richard Thaler, who asked: "would it change economic theory if we stopped pretending people were rational?" Or listen to Jeff Bezos whose relentless approach to problem solving has fueled Amazon’s exponential growth: “Getting the right question is key to getting the right answer.” Great questions like these have a catalytic quality—that is, they dissolve barriers to creative thinking and channel the pursuit of solutions into new, accelerated pathways. Often, the moment they are voiced, they have the paradoxical effect of being utterly surprising yet instantly obvious. For innovation and leadership guru Hal Gregersen, the power of questions has always been clear—but it took some years for the follow-on question to hit him: If so much depends on fresh questions, shouldn’t we know more about how to arrive at them? That sent him on a research quest ultimately including over two hundred interviews with creative thinkers. Questions Are the Answer delivers the insights Gregersen gained about the conditions that give rise to catalytic questions—and breakthrough insights—and how anyone can create them.

Download or read book The Uncertainty Mindset written by Vaughn Tan and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Innovation is how businesses stay ahead of the competition and adapt to market conditions that change in unpredictable and uncertain ways. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, high-end cuisine underwent a profound transformation. Once an industry that prioritized consistency and reliability, it turned into one where constant change was a competitive necessity. A top restaurant’s reputation and success have become so closely bound up with its ability to innovate that a new organizational form, the culinary research and development team, has emerged. The best of these R&D teams continually expand the frontiers of food—they invent a constant stream of new dishes, new cooking processes and methods, and even new ways of experiencing food. How do they achieve this nonstop novelty? And what can culinary research and development teach us about how organizations innovate? Vaughn Tan opens up the black box of elite culinary R&D to provide essential insights. Drawing on years of unprecedented access to the best and most influential culinary R&D teams in the world, he reveals how they exemplify what he calls the uncertainty mindset. Such a mindset intentionally incorporates uncertainty into organization design rather than simply trying to reduce risk. It changes how organizations hire, set goals, and motivate team members and leads organizations to work in highly unconventional ways. A revelatory look at the R&D kitchen, The Uncertainty Mindset upends conventional wisdom about how to organize for innovation and offers practical insights for businesses trying to become innovative and adaptable.

Download or read book Before the Day Ends written by Frank Shirvinski and published by . This book was released on 2020-12-20 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Each day presents many unique paths to explore and experience the remarkable world God has created. Before the Day Ends captures some of these moments in a series of reflections organized around seven opportunities where we can find hope and strength in times of uncertainty. A collection of questions has been included which can be used for a small group study or the reader's personal reflection. Within these pages, I hope you will find encouragement, enjoyment, humor, and perhaps a new perspective here and there.

Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied

Download or read book When the Conflict Ends While Uncertainty Continues written by Alessandra La Vaccara and published by Editions Pedone/Hart. This book was released on 2019-06-13 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most challenging elements during any armed conflict and its aftermath is the need to determine the fate of the missing and to support families dealing with uncertainty. Another layer of complexity is added in cases where a missing person might have been involved in criminal activity. This book examines how international law meets these two distinct, but intertwined, needs. It shows that the duty to account for missing persons is cross-cutting in nature, requiring measures needing implementation before, during, and after armed conflict. At the same time, those measures cannot substitute any required to establish responsibility for IHL/IHRL violations and international crimes. Exploring specific examples, the book examines the role that international law plays in the international community's attempts to articulate humanitarian and accountability-driven efforts when dealing with the missing. By so doing, it suggests how linkages between such efforts can be established, both through legal and policy avenues.

Download or read book 13 Things That Don t Make Sense written by Michael Brooks and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2010-07-09 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science starts to get interesting when things don't make sense. Even today there are experimental results that the most brilliant scientists can neither explain nor dismiss. In the past, similar anomalies have revolutionised our world: in the sixteenth century, a set of celestial irregularities led Copernicus to realise that the Earth goes around the sun and not the reverse. In 13 Things That Don't Make Sense Michael Brooks meets thirteen modern-day anomalies that may become tomorrow's breakthroughs. Is ninety six percent of the universe missing? If no study has ever been able to definitively show that the placebo effect works, why has it become a pillar of medical science? Was the 1977 signal from outer space a transmission from an alien civilization? Spanning fields from chemistry to cosmology, psychology to physics, Michael Brooks thrillingly captures the excitement and controversy of the scientific unknown.

Download or read book The Cunning of Uncertainty written by Helga Nowotny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-11-19 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is interwoven into human existence. It is a powerful incentive in the search for knowledge and an inherent component of scientific research. We have developed many ways of coping with uncertainty. We make promises, manage risks and make predictions to try to clear the mists and predict ahead. But the future is inherently uncertain - and the mist that shrouds our path an inherent part of our journey. The burning question is whether our societies can face up to uncertainty, learn to embrace it and whether we can open up to a constantly evolving future. In this new book, Helga Nowotny shows how research can thrive at the cusp of uncertainty. Science, she argues, can eventually transform uncertainty into certainty, but into certainty which remains always provisional. Uncertainty is never completely static. It is constantly evolving. It encompasses geological time scales and, at the level of human experience, split-second changes as cells divide. Life and death decisions are taken in the blink of the eye, while human interactions with the natural environment may reveal their impact over millennia. Uncertainty is cunning. It appears at unexpected moments, it shuns the straight line, takes the oblique route and sometimes the unexpected short-cut. As we acknowledge the cunning of uncertainty, its threats retreat. We accept that any scientific inquiry must produce results that are provisional and uncertain. This message is vital for politicians and policy-makers: do not be tempted by small, short-term, controllable gains to the exclusion of uncertain, high-gain opportunities. Wide-ranging in its use of examples and enriched by the author’s experience as President of the European Research Council, one of the world’s leading funding organisations for fundamental research. The Cunning of Uncertainty is a must-read for students and scholars of all disciplines, politicians, policy-makers and anyone concerned with the fundamental role of knowledge and science in our societies today.

Download or read book Beyond Uncertainty written by David C. Cassidy and published by Bellevue Literary Press. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Exhaustively detailed yet eminently readable, this is an important book."Publishers Weekly, starred review "Cassidy does not so much exculpate Heisenberg as explain him, with a transparency that makes this biography a pleasure to read."Los Angeles Times "Well crafted and readable . . . [Cassidy] provides a nuanced and compelling account of Heisenberg's life."The Harvard Book Review In 1992, David C. Cassidy’s groundbreaking biography of Werner Heisenberg, Uncertainty, was published to resounding acclaim from scholars and critics. Michael Frayn, in the Playbill of the Broadway production of Copenhagen, referred to it as one of his main sources and “the standard work in English.” Richard Rhodes (The Making of the Atom Bomb) called it “the definitive biography of a great and tragic physicist,” and the Los Angeles Times praised it as “an important book. Cassidy has sifted the record and brilliantly detailed Heisenberg’s actions.” No book that has appeared since has rivaled Uncertainty, now out of print, for its depth and rich detail of the life, times, and science of this brilliant and controversial figure of twentieth-century physics. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, long-suppressed information has emerged on Heisenberg’s role in the Nazi atomic bomb project. In Beyond Uncertainty, Cassidy interprets this and other previously unknown material within the context of his vast research and tackles the vexing questions of a scientist’s personal responsibility and guilt when serving an abhorrent military regime. David C. Cassidy is the author of J. Robert Oppenheimer and the American Century, Einstein and Our World, and Uncertainty.

Download or read book The Principles of Uncertainty written by Maira Kalman and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2009-10-27 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Sublime . . . Kalman’s elegantly witty and at times melancholy narrative runs arm in arm with her unmistakable paintings on a serendipitous romp through the history of the world.” —Vanity Fair “Wildly original . . . there’s nothing else even remotely like it . . . This hilarious, wise, and deeply moving volume [is] the ultimate picture book for grown-ups.” —O Magazine Maira Kalman paints her highly personal worldview in this inimitable combination of image and text An irresistible invitation to experience life through a beloved artist's psyche, The Principles of Uncertainty is a compilation of Maira Kalman's New York Times columns. Part personal narrative, part documentary, part travelogue, part chapbook, and all Kalman, these brilliant, whimsical paintings, ideas, and images - which initially appear random - ultimately form an intricately interconnected worldview, an idiosyncratic inner monologue.

Download or read book Thrive written by Meridith Elliott Powell, MBA, CSP and published by Sound Wisdom. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thrive is the roadmap of how to grow your business and drive sales in highly shifting, constantly changing economic times. It is the story of those leaders and organizations that have seen consistent growth through several economic crises-companies that were founded in the late 1700’s to early 1900’s and they are still in business thriving today. In this book we share their stories, their struggles, and tell you exactly how they have not only overcome adversity, but thrived through it. Praise for the Book: “We live in a time when uncertainty is the order of the day. THRIVE is a must-read for all who strive to grow intellectually and to succeed through the opportunities an uncertain world offers.” —Ken Langone, Founder, Home Depot, American Billionaire and Philanthropist “Talk about the right book for the right time! What I liked most about THRIVE are the case studies of real companies and real people who weathered the storms and emerged more successful than before. THRIVE is both practical and inspirational. I’ve ordered copies for my entire team.” —Bill Cates, CSP, CPAE, Founder, The Cates Academy for Relationship Marketing, Author of Radical Relevance “In THRIVE, Meridith weaves in 250 years of business history to show how resilient businesses and people find opportunities in every situation. This is a must-read to gain ideas and perspective in a sea of change.” —Mary C. Kelly, PhD, CEO, Productive Leaders, Author of The Five Minute Leadership Guide “You do not merely read this book; you read, you think, you develop next steps. Meridith does a masterful job of detailing companies doing it right and then goes further by adding her insights to create a playbook of what you need to do. Perfect book for the time we’re in right now!” —Mark Hunter, CSP, “The Sales Hunter”, Author of A Mind For Sales “The only certainty in business is there will be times of great uncertainty. It’s how you react when your world—or the world—doesn’t go as planned that determines your future. Meridith studies how companies have thrived in their uncertain times to become global market leaders and shares the proven success strategies that you can implement in your business to do the same. If there was ever a time where our world needed this book, it’s now. Read it. Study it. And thrive!” —Sam Richter, CSP, CPAE, Hall of Fame Speaker, Bestselling Author, and Technology Entrepreneur

Download or read book The Democratic Coup D tat written by Ozan O. Varol and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Democratic Coup d'État advances a simple, yet controversial, argument: democracy sometimes comes through a military coup. Covering coups that toppled dictators and installed democratic rule in countries as diverse as Guinea-Bissau, Portugal, and Colombia, the book weaves a balanced narrative that challenges everything we knew about military coups.

Download or read book Coming of Age in Times of Uncertainty written by Harry Blatterer and published by Berghahn Books. This book was released on 2009-07 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Adulthood is taken for granted. It connotes the end of childhood, the resolution to the “storm and stress” period of adolescence. This conception is strongly entrenched in the sociology of youth and the sociology of the life course as well as in the policy arena. At the same time, adulthood itself remains unarticulated; journey’s end remains conceptually fixed and theoretically uncontested. Adulthood, then, is both central to the social imagination and neglected as an area of sociological investigation, something that has been noted by sociologists over the last four decades. Going beyond the overwhelmingly psychological literature, this book draws on original qualitative research and theories of social recognition and thus presents a first step towards filling an important gap in our understanding of the meaning of adulthood.

Download or read book Uncertainty written by William Briggs and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-15 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

Download or read book Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.

Download or read book Relax It s Only Uncertainty written by Philip Hodgson and published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2001 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way when the way is changing.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.