Download or read book The Emergence of Peer Competitors A Framework for Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is playing an unparalleled role in its history on the world stage. Its foes are few and weak, its allies strong and numerous. The United States has the most robust economy in the world, the dominant ideology, and a military that secures the homeland from any major conventional threat. Such a favorable situation is bound to end at some indeterminate point in the future. Though there is nothing to indicate that the situation will end in the near term, the possibility exists that the United States could be slow to recognize the rise of a state or alliance that could compete with it on equal terms (as a peer) and thus respond too late. However, moving too soon could be just as detrimental. By reacting prematurely, the United States could exhaust its resources and turn a state that might have been willing to cooperate or coexist peacefully into a competitor. The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies for power aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies for countering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, using exploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto- peer and hegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns and combinations of actions that might lead to rivalries.
Download or read book The Emergence of Peer Competitors written by Thomas S. Szayna and published by Minnesota Historical Society. This book was released on 2001 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies for power aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies for countering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, using exploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer and hegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns and combinations of actions that might lead to rivalries. The dominant power has an array of options available to limit the growth of its rivals or to change their ultimate intentions. Too confrontational a strategy, however, risks making a potential neutral power into a foe, while too conciliatory a stance may speed the growth of a competitor. Exploratory modeling suggests which attributes of the countries are most important and the sensitivity of the dominant power to perception errors.
Download or read book The Emergence of Peer Copetitors A Framework for Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is playing an unparalleled role in its history on the world stage. Its foes are few and weak, its allies strong and numerous. The United States has the most robust economy in the world, the dominant ideology, and a military that secures the homeland from any major conventional threat. Such a favorable situation is bound to end at some indeterminate point in the future. Though there is nothing to indicate that the situation will end in the near term, the possibility exists that the United States could be slow to recognize the rise of a state or alliance that could compete with it on equal terms (as a peer) and thus respond too late. However, moving too soon could be just as detrimental. By reacting prematurely, the United States could exhaust its resources and turn a state that might have been willing to cooperate or coexist peacefully into a competitor. The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies for power aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies for countering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, using exploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto- peer and hegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns and combinations of actions that might lead to rivalries.
Download or read book Who s Next And Ends Ways and Means Analysis of the Rise of Potential Hostile Competitors written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting the rise of a peer competitor of the United States is the subject of much thought and speculation. While it is important to forecast all potential competitors, the focus must be on the rise of a hostile competitor. This paper analyzes the prospects for the development of a potential peer and the geopolitical implications for the United States. It concludes that watching for emerging competitive ideologies while analyzing ends, ways, and means provides a solid predictive framework. Taking steps to counter or discredit hostile ideologies and to prevent or mitigate cataclysmic events might help prevent the rise of a hostile competitor. If done ineffectively, it might facilitate the rise of one.
Download or read book The Next American Century written by Nina Hachigian and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2008-01-08 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rise of other global powers is most often posed as a sorry tale, full of threats to America's primacy, prosperity, and way of life. The potential loss of our #1 status implies a blow to our safety, economy, and prestige. But this is a rare moment in history: none of the world's big powers is our adversaries. In The Next American Century, Nina Hachigian and Mona Sutphen show that the "pivotal powers" -- China, Europe, India, Japan, and Russia -- seek greater influence, but each has an enormous stake in the world economy and a keen desire to thwart common threats. India is a key ally in the struggle against terrorism. China's help is essential to containing pandemic disease. Russia is leading an effort to keep nuclear devices out of terrorists' hands. Japan and Europe are critical partners in tackling climate change. None of these countries is a direct military or ideological challenger. In fact, their gains largely help, rather than hurt, America's continuing prosperity, growth, and, to some extent, even its values. Will we have conflicts with these powers? Definitely. Some will be serious. But, by and large, they want what we want: a stable world and better lives for their citizens. We live in an era of opportunity, not of loss. To take advantage of this moment, the United States must get its own house in order, making sure that American children can compete, American workers can adjust, America's military remains cutting-edge, and American diplomacy entices rather than alienates. While America must be prepared for the possibility that a hostile superpower may one day emerge, it has to be careful not to turn a distant, uncertain threat into an immediate one. Washington should welcome the pivotal powers into a vigorous international order to share the burden of solving pressing global problems of peace, climate, health, and growth. The avenue to a truly safer and more prosperous world runs through the pivotal powers. With them, we can build a world where Americans will thrive, today and tomorrow.
Download or read book Air Force Magazine written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Liberal Leviathan written by G. John Ikenberry and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-08-26 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the second half of the twentieth century, the United States engaged in the most ambitious and far-reaching liberal order building the world had yet seen. This liberal international order has been one of the most successful in providing security and prosperity to more people, but in the last decade the American-led order has been troubled. Some argue that the Bush administration undermined it. Others argue that we are witnessing he end of the American era. In Liberal Leviathan G. John Ikenberry argues that the crisis that besets the American-led order is a crisis of authority. The forces that have triggered this crisis have resulted from the successful functioning and expansion of the postwar liberal order, not its breakdown.
Download or read book Parameters written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 708 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Beyond Bilateralism written by Ellis S. Krauss and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beyond Bilateralism analyzes how, and to what extent, crucial global and regional security, finance, and trade transformations have altered the U.S.-Japan relationship and how that bilateral relationship has in turn influenced those global and regional trends.
Download or read book Winners and Losers written by Diana C. Mutz and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-27 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From acclaimed political scientist Diana Mutz, a revealing look at why people's attitudes on trade differ from their own self-interest Winners and Losers challenges conventional wisdom about how American citizens form opinions on international trade. While dominant explanations in economics emphasize personal self-interest—and whether individuals gain or lose financially as a result of trade—this book takes a psychological approach, demonstrating how people view the complex world of international trade through the lens of interpersonal relations. Drawing on psychological theories of preference formation as well as original surveys and experiments, Diana Mutz finds that in contrast to the economic view of trade as cooperation for mutual benefit, many Americans view trade as a competition between the United States and other countries—a contest of us versus them. These people favor trade as long as they see Americans as the "winners" in these interactions, viewing trade as a way to establish dominance over foreign competitors. For others, trade is a means of maintaining more peaceful relations between countries. Just as individuals may exchange gifts to cement relationships, international trade is a tie that binds nations together in trust and cooperation. Winners and Losers reveals how people's orientations toward in-groups and out-groups play a central role in influencing how they think about trade with foreign countries, and shows how a better understanding of the psychological underpinnings of public opinion can lead to lasting economic and societal benefits.
Download or read book Peacebuilding Paradigms written by Henry F. Carey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-12-17 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Peacebuilding Paradigms focuses on how seven paradigms from the Comparative Politics, International Relations, and Policy Analysis subfields - Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism, Cosmopolitanism, Critical Theories, Locality, and Policy - analyze peacebuilding. The contributors explore the arguments of each paradigm, and then compare and contrast them. This book suggests that a hybrid approach that incorporates useful insights from each of these paradigms best explains how and why peacebuilding projects and policies succeed in some cases, fail in others, and provide lessons learned. Rather than merely using a theoretical approach, the authors use case studies to demonstrate why a focus on just one paradigm alone as an explanatory model is insufficient. This collection directly at how peacebuilding theory affects peacebuilding policies, and provides recommendations for best practices for future peacebuilding missions.
Download or read book Who s Next written by Douglas W. Johnston and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting the rise of a peer competitor of the United States is the subject of much thought and speculation. While it is important to forecast all potential competitors, the focus must be on the rise of a hostile competitor. This paper analyzes the prospects for the development of a potential peer and the geopolitical implications for the United States. It concludes that watching for emerging competitive ideologies while analyzing ends, ways, and means provides a solid predictive framework. Taking steps to counter or discredit hostile ideologies and to prevent or mitigate cataclysmic events might help prevent the rise of a hostile competitor. If done ineffectively, it might facilitate the rise of one.
Download or read book Shaping the Next One Hundred Years written by Robert J. Lempert and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-07-18 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question "What will the long-term future bring?" as "How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." Choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world LTPA and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.
Download or read book Remaking Global Order written by Nicola Casarini and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2009-09-03 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Relations between the European Union and China have grown at a sustained pace across the board in recent times, transforming the relationship from one of previous neglect into a matter of global strategic significance. This book offers an examination of the evolution of contemporary EU-China relations in the economic, technological and high politics dimensions, including implications of the high-tech and security-related elements of the relationship (space and satellite navigation cooperation; advanced technology transfers; arms sales, including the proposal to lift the EU arms embargo on China) for the United States and its East Asian allies. The analysis of EU-China relations is placed in the context of evolving dynamics in transatlantic relations on the one hand, and East Asia's major powers' changing security perceptions on the other. With this approach, this study intends to provide the reader with a better understanding of the global significance acquired by Sino-European relations, while also raising the question as to whether, and to what extent, the promotion of EU space and defence interests in China has made the EU a novel strategic factor in East Asia. This book contributes to current debates on the emerging global order, including discussions of how European and Chinese policy makers would perceive the post-Cold War international system, evaluate the place and role of their countries in it, and appraise the policies to be adopted to maintain global competitiveness in key strategic industrial sectors and increase political autonomy in an international environment characterised by US primacy.
Download or read book The Transformation of Russia s Armed Forces written by Roger N. McDermott and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-03-17 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At no time since the end of the Cold War has interest been higher in Russian security issues and the role played in this by the modernization of Russia’s Armed Forces. The continued transformation of its Armed Forces from Cold War legacy towards a modern combat capable force presents many challenges for the Kremlin. Moscow’s security concerns domestically, in the turbulent North Caucasus, and internationally linked to the Arab Spring, as well as its complex relations with the US and NATO and its role in the aftermath of the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine in 2014 further raises the need to present an informed analytical survey of the country’s military, past, present and future. This collection addresses precisely the nature of the challenges facing Russian policymakers as they struggle to rebuild combat capable military to protect Russian interests in the twenty-first century. This book was based on a special issue of the Journal of Slavic Military Studies.
Download or read book The Great Powers versus the Hegemon written by E. Ahrari and published by Springer. This book was released on 2011-11-15 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a study of great power relations – China, India, and Russia – among themselves and with the hegemon – United States. Ahrari argues that the next decade may witness the emergence of a bipolar order where China's dominance in economics is certain; however, China will not seriously challenge the military dominance of the U.S.
Download or read book Deterrence From Cold War to Long War written by Austin Long and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2008-10-27 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its inception six decades ago, the RAND Corporation has been one of the key institutional homes for the study of deterrence. This book examines much of this research for lessons relevant to the current and future strategic environment. It is therefore part intellectual history and part policy recommendation, intended to encourage debate and discussion on how deterrence can best be incorporated into U.S. strategy.
