Download or read book The Effects of Uncertainty on Company Employment and Investment Decisions written by Nadia Masud and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses written by Vivek Ghosal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-14 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growth, inflation, S&P500 stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of employment, and the effects are primarily felt by the relatively smaller businesses; the impact on large businesses are generally non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we need to focus on the relatively smaller and entrepreneurial businesses. We discuss implications for the framing of economic policy.

Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

Download or read book Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.

Download or read book Investment Growth and Employment written by Ciaran Driver and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005-08-10 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investment - in both facilities and know-how - is essential for growth. Economists try to understand the forces that determine investment, but investment behaviour is unruly; often the term animal spirits is used to explain the resulting volatility. This volume presents studies to explain international investment behaviour and assess its impact on growth and jobs. The authors also examine policy measures to reverse the climate of low investment that has characterised recent decades. The contributors examine how well standard models of investment work, the role of finance constraints, the effect of risk and uncertainty, the impact of alternative forms of corporate governance, the forces shaping the adoption of new technology, the impact of foreign direct investment, the effect of investment on the NAIRU and the causal structure of investment and growth. Editors introductions to the different sections of the book provide comprehensive overviews of the main theories of investment, the impact of investment on growth and employment and examine the main questions raised for policy makers.

Download or read book Uncertain Growth Cycles Corporate Investment and Dynamic Hedging written by Adam Yonce and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the theory of finance, uncertainty plays a crucial role. Economists often use the terms uncertainty and volatility interchangeably, yet volatility is not the only form of uncertainty. Firms face uncertainty about whether the economy is in an expansionary or recessionary state, industries face regulatory uncertainty, and individuals face uncertainty about risk premia. In this dissertation, I consider the role that uncertainty about growth rates, regulatory policy, and risk premia play in the investment decisions of firms and individuals. The key theme linking the three chapters is learning in dynamic environments. In Chapter 1, I study the effects of demand growth uncertainty on corporate investment decisions. In particular, how does uncertainty about the state of the economy and the state of demand growth affect a firm's decision to allocate capital to irreversible investment projects? In the model, firms are able to choose both the timing and scale of their investments, and the optimal scale will depend on the unobserved state of demand growth. This second decision gives rise to an incentive to delay investment that does not exist in standard real option models: When investment is irreversible, firms risk allocating a sub-optimal level of capital to a project. Theoretically, I show how this incentive to delay is closely linked to the benefits of learning about the economy. Empirically, using estimated probabilities filtered from GDP growth, I find that 1) beliefs about the economy inform corporate investment decisions, and 2) the relationship between investment and beliefs is quadratic. In Chapter 2, I study an empirical extension of the model. Many industries in the United States face regulatory uncertainty, and a natural conjecture is that increased regulatory uncertainty has a dampening effect on investment if 1) regulatory policy affects the cash flows of the firm, 2) firms have flexibility over the scale of their investments, and 3) regulatory uncertainty resolves quickly. While regulatory uncertainty is not observable, I consider two proxies: A variable indicating Presidential election years, and a variable indicating divided government. The former is meant to capture policy uncertainty associated with the possibility of a change in government, while the latter is meant to capture policy uncertainty associated with ideological variance. Empirically, both measures are associated with a decrease in corporate investment rates, consistent with the theoretical framework. The second purpose of this chapter is to highlight the dangers of making inferences about investment using inconsistent estimators and regressions that fail to account for plausible alternative hypotheses. Previous work linking investment to the political cycle relies on least squares estimators that are inconsistent because the firm-specific control variables are endogenous to the investment decision. For a specific sub-sample of non-manufacturing firms, I show that least squares estimates easily reject the null hypothesis, while consistent first-difference estimates fail to do so. Finally, I include a control for the fiscal environment of the federal government, which helps to uncover important dynamics between investment, the budget deficit, and the election cycle. In chapter 3, I consider the currency hedging problem of a risk-averse international investor who faces an unobservable currency risk premium. A non-zero risk premium introduces a speculative motive for holding foreign currency in the optimal portfolio, and a time-varying risk premium introduces a market-timing strategy. Uncertainty about the stochastic properties of the risk premium significantly tames both the speculative and market timing components, especially at long investment horizons, and the optimal hedge approaches a complete hedge as risk aversion and the investment horizon increase. However, an investor who ignores the risk premium and fully hedges foreign investments faces a substantial opportunity cost because she forgoes the benefits of dynamic learning.

Download or read book Effects of Uncertainty on the Valuation of Securities and the Financial Decisions of the Firm written by Stewart C. Myers and published by . This book was released on 1966 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Global Uncertainty and Firm Investment written by Hyunduk Suh and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using firm-level data from 36 countries, we estimate the effect of global uncertainty on corporate investment and financial decisions. Eleven global uncertainty measures that encompass macro, micro, and higher-order dimensions of uncertainty are employed. We find that while Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) measures negatively affect investment, non-EPU measures have positive effects. In 2010s, EPU and non-EPU measures exhibit notably different behaviors which appear to considerably influence our results. We also explore how firm- and country-specific characteristics affect the relationship between uncertainty and investment. The negative effects of EPU measures on investment are stronger for firms with high investment irreversibility and high leverage, but no such effect is observed from non-EPU measures. In countries with deeper credit markets, investment decisions are less sensitive to uncertainty. Regarding financial decisions, (1) increased EPU measures lead to increased cash holdings, while an increase in most other uncertainty measures reduces them and (2) except for Global EPU, most uncertainty measures are negatively associated with dividend payouts. Overall, our results reveal that contrary to a substantial body of recent scholarly work, the uncertainty-investment relation is sensitive to uncertainty measures and sample periods and different uncertainty measures have differential effects on cash holdings and dividend payouts.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Unemployment written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.

Download or read book Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity written by Kyle Handley and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a new measure of firm-level uncertainty from analyzing the text of mandatory reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Using firm and establishment level panel data on investment margins and employment dynamics, we find our uncertainty measure has large effects on investment even after controlling for industry and time-varying shocks. Periods of high firm uncertainty (1) reduce investment rates by 0.5% and attenuate the response to positive sales shocks by about half and (2) reduce employment growth rates by 1.4% and the response to positive sales shocks by 30%. Firms are less responsive to demand shocks at the firm level and across establishments within the firm. Consistent with "wait and see” dynamics, uncertainty affects new investment activity, e.g. plant births and acquisition, more than disinvestment margins.

Download or read book Factors in Business Investment written by Michael Funke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State of the art modeling of investment behavior and analysis of incentive and allocative effects of taxation on investment behavior are reported in these proceedings. Leading researchers from seven OECD countries treat problems ranging from modeling investment behavior and estimating investment equations with various data sets to detailed studies of tax influences on investment behavior. Particular attention is paid to tax reform plans, especially in West Germany and the UK. The role of financial variables and uncertainty is analysed. A major topic in the volume is recent work within Tobin's Q-theoretic framework. Papers report developments and applications of Q-type investment functions, and for the first time estimated Q-theoretic investment equations are presented for West German industries taking into account the complex tax structure.

Download or read book Uncertainty Advantage written by Gary S. Lynch and published by Archway Publishing. This book was released on 2017-01-12 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk and uncertainty may sound scary, but todays best business leaders are navigating both to gain strategic advantage over competitorsand you can, too. This guide for business leaders examines risk and opportunity through the lens of some of the worlds most respected visionaries, including Howard Schultz, Andy Grove, Peter Huntsman, John Krafcik, Peter Leibinger, Doug Hepper, and many more. These visionaries looked beyond financial performance to see opportunitiesand they did so by understanding uncertainty. Then, they decisively acted to create measurable results that coincided with the future they envisioned. Find out how they did it, and learn how to: identify, define, and convert uncertainty into value; become more opportunistic when facing uncertainty; develop the skill to spot where advantages are likely to emerge; and create an environment where managers and leaders complement each other. Filled with case studies on companies such as Hyundai, Starbucks, Roche, and Intel, this guide delivers proven ways to create value and leverage uncertainty. It is the culmination of a decade of research and interaction with dozens of companies and growth leaders who prove that pursuing a market driven strategy to navigating uncertainty will gain measurable market advantage.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics written by Nick Bloom and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large - going from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response to demand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may be much lower in periods of high uncertainty, such as after major shocks like OPEC I and 9/11.

Download or read book Risk Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Download or read book Irreversibility Uncertainty and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.

Download or read book Investment Appraisal written by Uwe Götze and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-18 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides an introduction to investment appraisal and presents a range of methods and models, some of which are not widely known, or at least not well covered by other textbooks. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Investment decisions are of vital importance to all companies. Getting these decisions right is crucial but, due to a complex and dynamic business environment, this remains a challenging management task. Effective appraisal methods are valuable tools in supporting investment decision-making. As organisations continue to seek a competitive edge, it is increasingly important that management accountants and strategic decision-makers have a sound knowledge of these tools.

Download or read book New Perspectives on Policy Uncertainty written by Sandile Hlatshwayo and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring its magnitude and changes over time. In this dissertation, I leverage the recent advent of global news aggregators to directly identify and measure policy uncertainty shocks based on ``news chatter'' in the press. Unlike previously used measures of economic uncertainty (e.g., strike days or exchange rate volatility), ``news chatter'' uncertainty indices pick up economic volatility as well as the threat or anticipation of volatility stemming from policy uncertainty, whether or not it comes to fruition. The more holistic character of such measures allows for a more nuanced examination of uncertainty's impact on firm decisions and outcomes. After constructing novel measures of policy uncertainty, I then explore how they translate into economic outcomes that extend beyond the traditional investment channel. In Chapter 1, I offer new insights into the channels policy uncertainty operates through by constructing a novel and rich dataset of type-specific policy uncertainty indices and leveraging previously unexamined variation in firm-level exposure to external markets to create firm-specific measures of policy uncertainty. Specifically, I exploit variation in firms' exposure to external markets to construct a firm-level measure of policy uncertainty. The approach both highlights a new channel for policy uncertainty and allows for stronger causal identification of the effects of policy uncertainty on economic performance. As part of this effort, I refine prior approaches to measuring policy uncertainty and distinguish between generic, fiscal, monetary, and trade policy uncertainty. I find that firms with greater exposure to external markets tend to experience larger declines in investment, sales, profits, and employment when fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty increase. Unexpectedly, increases in trade policy uncertainty appear to have a positive impact on exports for exposed firms. Both sets of findings can be rationalized in a standard model of firm investment under uncertainty. In particular, I present evidence that exposed firms may perceive increased uncertainty around trade agreement negotiations as a signal that negative outcomes are less likely in the near-term, incentivizing immediate investments. Historically, exchange rate depreciation makes a country's exports more competitive and cheaper, increasing its exports. Since the end of the Great Recession, many countries have seen this relationship weaken. In Chapter 2, I advance policy uncertainty as a new explanation for such dilutions in the relationship between exchange rates and export performance. Using South Africa as a case study, I find that increased policy uncertainty diminishes the responsiveness of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. In Chapter 3, I examine a more extreme version of policy uncertainty--regime uncertainty. In 2010, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an indictment against six of Kenya's foremost leaders for crimes against humanity related to 2008 post-election violence. I find strong evidence that firms connected to the accused experienced declines in valuations during ICC shocks, with particularly negative revaluations for firms with highly public links to the accused. The results suggest that the negative effects of regime uncertainty outweighed any positive ``rule of law'' shock that the ICC's intervention might have provided to firms. Together the studies provide new insights on the connections between policy uncertainty and weak aggregate economic performance. In addition to offering more nuance for policy directives, the results will help discipline future theoretical efforts to more accurately model complex dynamics in modern open economies.