Download or read book The Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment written by Ayse E. Sile and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Irreversibility Uncertainty and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Irreversible investment is especially sensitive to such risk factors as volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about tariff structures and future cash flows. If the goal of macroeconomic policy is to stimulate investment, stability and credibility may be more important than tax incentives or interest rates.

Download or read book The Era of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-13 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”

Download or read book Private Investment and Macroeconomic Adjustment written by Luis Serven and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty Investment and Growth written by Hanno Dihle and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: The impact of uncertainty on the decision-making of economic agents, such as firms and households, is a important but often neglected element of micro- and macroeconomic theory. With the onset of the financial crisis in 2007 and the strong increase in uncertainty that accompanied it, the theoretical analysis of this phenomenon has become more important. With the article `The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks', published in 2009, Nicholas Bloom introduced a new facet to the debate surrounding the macroeconomic consequences of uncertainty: the question of what role uncertainty-induced 'real option values' in investment decisions play with regard to business cycle fluctuations. However, the inclusion of real option values in macroeconomic models raises questions that go beyond the effects of uncertainty on the business cycle. In particular, the implementation of specific stochastic processes as the basis of option value analysis, such as the widely used Brownian motion, requires a fundamental theoretical discussion regarding the modeling of uncertainty and its consequences in economic and growth models. The aim of this dissertation is a comprehensive discussion and further development of the theoretical effects of uncertainty in macroeconomic models against the background of the theory of real option values, with a strong focus on the implications of stochastic diffusion processes. The first article examines the effects of uncertainty in the euro crisis. Within a partial investment model, two kinds of uncertainty are introduced: volatility and disaster risk. The article expands the literature by integrating a jump-diffusion process into an entry-exit framework for investment decisions. In addition, SVAR estimates are made for a new country data set on uncertainty. The second article implements uncertainty and irreversibility in a growth model with monopolistic competition. The model integrates both micro- and macroeconomic uncertainty modeled as Brownian motions. The article provides a comprehensive picture of short- and long-term volatility effects. The third article expands the model with a jump-diffusion process to investigate the influence of uncertainty in a development-economic context. The paper expands the literature in the field of development economics with a model that illustrates the effects of different uncertainty shocks on the development process. In the fourth article, the model developed in the second article ...

Download or read book Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey written by La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we construct a news-based economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey and assess how it affects Turkish firms. To disentangle the issues of endogeneity and reverse causality, we use a difference-in-differences approach, exploiting the fact that firms with a high share of irreversible investment are more exposed to policy uncertainty. In sectors with large irreversible investment EPU has a greater effect on growth, investment, and leverage. The results are robust to different definitions of investment irreversibility, lag structure, and selection of sectors.

Download or read book Investment Uncertainty and Irreversibility in Ghana written by Ms.Catherine A. Pattillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12-01 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Panel data on Ghanaian manufacturing firms are used to test predictions from models of irreversible investment under uncertainty. Information on the entrepreneur’s subjective probability distribution over future demand for the firm’s products is used to construct the expected variance of demand, which is used as a measure of uncertainty. Empirical results support the prediction that firms wait to invest until the marginal revenue product of capital reaches a firm-specific hurdle level. Moreover, higher uncertainty raises the hurdle level that triggers investment, and uncertainty has a negative effect on investment levels that is greater for firms with more irreversible investment.

Download or read book The Implications of Parameter Uncertainty for Irreversible Investment Decisions written by Concordia University. Department of Economics and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effects of Regime switching Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment Decisions written by Catherine Anne Pattillo and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Uncertainity on Investment written by John Vincent Leahy and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Uncertainty Instability and Irreversible Investment written by Luis Serven and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Irreversibility Uncertainty and Investment written by Robert S. Pindyck and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Irreversible Investment with Uncertainty and Scale Economies written by Avinash K. Dixit and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Irreversible Investment with Uncertainty and Scale Economies written by Avinash Dixit and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses optimal irreversible investment policy when profits are subject to a multiplicative geometric Brownian motion shock. The marginal product of capital is increasing initially and decreasing thereafter. In the latter range, optimal policy is familiar: capacity is added gradually as the shock rises to a threshold where the expected return on the marginal unit is a required multiple of the cost of capital. The multiple reflects the option value of waiting. The optimal policy in the increasing marginal product range obeys the same multiple, now applied to the total return on the discrete increase in capital. Implications for economic growth, and suboptimal equilibria under external economies, are examined.

Download or read book Nber Macroeconomics Annual 1993 written by Olivier Blanchard and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This annual is designed to stimulate research on problems in applied economics, to bring frontier theoretical developments to a wider audience, and to accelerate the interaction between analytical and empirical research in macroeconomics

Download or read book The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty written by Francesco Bianchi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features demand- and supply-side uncertainty. Using term structure and macroeconomic data, we find sizable effects of uncertainty on risk premia and business cycle fluctuations. Both demand-side and supply-side uncertainty imply large contractions in real activity and an increase in term premia, but supply-side uncertainty has larger effects on inflation and investment. We introduce a novel analytical decomposition to illustrate how multiple distinct risk propagation channels account for these differences. Supply and demand uncertainty are strongly correlated in the beginning of our sample, but decouple in the aftermath of the Great Recession.

Download or read book Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by www.bnpublishing.com. This book was released on 2009-03 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The success over the years in reducing inflation and, consequently, the average level of nominal interest rates has increased the likelihood that the nominal policy interest rate may become constrained by the zero lower bound. When that happens, a central bank can no longer stimulate aggregate demand by further interest-rate reductions and must rely on "non-standard" policy alternatives. To assess the potential effectiveness of such policies, we analyze the behavior of selected asset prices over short periods surrounding central bank statements or other types of financial or economic news and estimate "noarbitrage" models of the term structure for the United States and Japan. There is some evidence that central bank communications can help to shape public expectations of future policy actions and that asset purchases in large volume by a central bank would be able to affect the price or yield of the targeted asset.