Download or read book The Effect of Land Supply Restriction on the Risk of Hong Kong Indirect Real Estate written by Ervi Liusman and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Effect of Land Supply Restriction on the Risk of Hong Kong Indirect Real Estate" by Ervi, Liusman, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of thesis entitled The Effect of Land Supply Restriction on the Risk of Hong Kong Indirect Real Estate Submitted by LIUSMAN ERVI for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong in September 2007 From 1984 to 1997, the Hong Kong Government was restricted, under Annex III of the Sino British Joint Declaration, to granting new developable land of no more than 50 hectares per year. This artificial constraint provides an excellent opportunity to test how restricting the supply of new developable land, which is free of pre-development risk, affects the risks faced by listed real estate companies, the most common form of indirect real estate in Hong Kong. I have used quarterly data from the second quarter of 1978 through the fourth quarter of 2005 to estimate the multifactor variance decomposition models. The models allowed us to examine the relative contribution of local common stocks, direct real estate, interest rates, global stocks, and idiosyncratic (unexplained) factors to the observed volatility or risk of indirect real estate for the entire observation period and sub-periods during which new land supplies were restricted (1984- 1997) and not restricted (1978-1984 and 1997-2005). My empirical results showed that there was a significant increase in idiosyncratic risk for all indirect real estate from 1984 to 1997. This supported my prediction that new land supply restrictions will result in an increase in the idiosyncratic risk of indirect real estate. Restrictions of new land supplies forced developers to look for alternative sources of land for development, such as redeveloping or changing the use of land and other development constraints. To assemble land for redevelopment and to obtain approval from various authorities to develop these alternative sources of land is a dubious task, and the outcomes are unpredictable. Such uncertainty is priced in the indirect real estate market and manifests itself as a source of volatility not explained by the factors in the variance decomposition model. Another implication of my theoretical analysis is that real estate companies that are more involved in real estate development (as oppose to real estate investment) experienced a larger increase in idiosyncratic risk from 1984 to 1997. My empirical results, which were based on an analysis of all the real estate companies that were listed throughout the entire observation period (the second quarter of 1978 through the fourth quarter of 2005) in Hong Kong, are consistent with this implication. The findings of this study are applicable to situations in which there is a change in the ratio of new developable land (free of pre-development risk) to all sources of land for development (some of which may have incurred pre-development risk), whether due to a change in policy/legislation, physical constraints, or other reasons. When this ratio declines, the idiosyncratic risk of real estate development companies will increase, but the same has no effect on that of companies that are involved purely in real estate investment. This finding has important implications for policy makers, investors and decision makers of real estate companies. ii DOI: 10.5353/th_b3943371 Subjects: Real estate development - China - Hong Kong Land use, Urban - Government policy - China - Hong Kong Real estate in

Download or read book The Effect of Land Supply Restriction on the Risk of Hong Kong Indirect Real Estate written by Ervi Liusman and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Effects of Restrictive Land Supply on Housing in Hong Kong written by Ruijue Peng and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book PERFORMANCE OF DIRECT INDIRE written by Emmanuel Kanigwa and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Performance of Direct and Indirect Property Investment in Hong Kong" by Emmanuel, Kanigwa, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: ii Abstract: Modern portfolio theory (MPT) advocates a process where investor's capital will be allocated among various asset classes based on quantitative and analytical approach taking into consideration of their possible rate of returns vis-a-vis objectives and/or risk tolerances. Using Mean Variance Optimisation concept, this dissertation examines the performance and diversification potential of Direct and indirect property in a mixed asset portfolio in Hong Kong for the period from1984 to 2003. Unlike most studies which have concentrated on how much to include of real estate by measuring the risk effect of increase of real estate in portfolio composition at isolated points, this dissertation completely takes another angle by constructing full efficient frontiers and assessing the diversification effects of real estate inclusion at different risk return levels. The results for the study period indicate that, though the property market had some ups and downs, both direct property and indirect property offer diversification benefits depending on one's risk preference. Indirect property offered higher returns than the direct property but were also more risky, and therefore capable to offer a diversification benefits to people of high risk preference while direct property in spite of their relatively low returns could offer diversification benefits to low and moderate risk preference people in a mixed asset portfolio. On a more positive note, the findings do suggest that almost all investors benefit to some extent by holding some direct and indirect property. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3050999 Subjects: Real estate investment - China - Hong Kong Portfolio management

Download or read book Markets at Work written by Bertrand Renaud and published by Hong Kong University Press. This book was released on 1997-07-28 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'The real estate economy of Hong Kong is one of the most dynamic and sophisticated in the world, and has contributed greatly to the spectacular development of this vibrant city. More importantly, at a time of rapid globalization of the world economy, it is possibly the best model of the behaviour of an advanced real estate industry operating in an open economy. Hong Kong is thereforeof interest to analysts and policymakers everywhere, not least because of Hong Kong's political reintegration with China in 1997. With this in mind, the authors have managed to capture the key economic features of the private residential real estate market in Hong Kong in this compact volume. They have identified and highlighted critical institutions that contribute to the success and economic factors which shape the dynamics of all sectors of the real estate industry in Hong Kong. This book is essential reading for market analysts, policymakers, students and international readers with an interest in comparative analysis of real estate markets and institutions.' Professor Anthony Walker, Centre for Real Estate and Urban Economics,The University of Hong Kong.

Download or read book Effects of Land Policies and Development Strategies on Housing written by Shu Wang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this thesis is to investigate the effects of land supply on housing prices in Hong Kong. Studies will be carried out to define whether there are any correlation between land supply, housing supply and residential property prices. In order to better understand Hong Kong's housing market, this study will first present a background of establishment of Hong Kong's land tenure system, land administration system and the government's land sale process, while trying to answer the question of whether the perceived shortage in housing supply is a direct consequence of the shortage in government's land supply. The study then examines the concentration of market shares among a handful of developers and the high barrier to entry that have resulted in such anti-competitive environment. The study analyzes the leading developers' competitive advantages in terms of land bank and financial strength, and their housing supply strategies in relation to the government's land supply decisions. This paper will then insert the theoretical findings into realistic settings of Hong Kong's housing development industry, and apply the methodology of event study to detect the impact of real estate companies' development strategies and how it alters the perceived relationship between the supply of land and the supply of housing. By simultaneously considering the effects of development strategies with government land policies, the paper aims to better evaluate governments measure to regulate housing market and hope to recommend more effective policies on residential land supply in Hong Kong.

Download or read book The Effects of Political Business Cycle in the United States on Hong Kong s Property Market written by 文景輝 and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "The Effects of Political Business Cycle in the United States on Hong Kong's Property Market" by 文景輝, King-fai, Man, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of thesis entitled The effects of Political Business Cycle in the United States on Hong Kong's Property Market Submitted by Man, King Fai for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong in October 2007 This study investigates how the US political business cycle affects property prices in Hong Kong. Previous studies suggest an election induced business cycle of 4 years in the US. We propose that the US political business cycle also resulted in a 4-year cycle in property prices in Hong Kong due to the currency board system adopted in Hong Kong and Hong Kong's reliance on the performance of the US economy. Our empirical evidence supports the existence of a 4-year cycle in property prices in the residential, retail, office and industrial sub-sectors. We have also shown that the influence of the US political business cycle on property prices in Hong Kong is mainly through cyclical movements in interest rates and inflation rates in Hong Kong, both imported from the US. The high transaction costs and impossibility of short-selling make it difficult for professional arbitrageurs to exploit the predictable cyclical movement of property prices. Therefore the persistence of a 4-year cycle in the property prices is not inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. We have also investigated whether the effects of the US business political cycle can filter through to the supply of new buildings and indirect (securitized) real estate price, both of which have shown strong cyclical co-movement with property prices. We hypothesize that the influence of the effect of US political business cycle on property prices cannot be transmitted to the building industry due to the substantial variation in the lead time between the decision to increase new supply triggers by price signals and the actual realization of such new supplies as completed buildings. This variation is a result of a wide range of scale of development projects and the differences in difficulties and complexity in obtaining approvals for developments in different sites in Hong Kong. Our empirical evidence shows that there is no 4-year cycle in the supply of completed buildings, although other cycles of different frequency exist. This finding is consistent with our hypothesis. The indirect real estate has been shown to be very efficient due to the lower transaction costs, high liquidity and possibility of short-selling. Therefore we conjecture that although direct and indirect real estate prices are closely related, the 4-year cycle in property prices cannot filter to indirect real estate prices since any predictable cyclical movements will be exploited by professional arbitrageurs. Furthermore, indirect real estate prices are also heavily influenced by stock market sentiments other than property prices. While we find no evidence of a 4-year cycle, there is evidence, though not strong, that suggests the existence of cycles of different frequencies. This result suggests that indirect real estate is not as efficient as most previous studies have suggested if predictability over longer time horizon is considered or that there are other institutional factors that prohibit professional investors such as fund managers from exploiting such longer term predictability of indirect real estate prices. This finding opens u

Download or read book Dissertation Abstracts International written by and published by . This book was released on 2009-05 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Hong Kong Real Estate Issues for Responsible Investors written by and published by Responsible Research. This book was released on with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book An Empirical Study on the Effects of Land Policy on Industrial Property Prices and Rental Yields in Hong Kong written by Chun-Hin So and published by . This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "An Empirical Study on the Effects of Land Policy on Industrial Property Prices and Rental Yields in Hong Kong" by Chun-hin, So, 蘇振顯, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: The rapid restructuring of Hong Kong''s economy as a result of China''s economic reform and open door policy since the late 70s, has led to major shifts in the demand and supply of industrial buildings. These shifts resulted in misallocation of land resources due to various institutional constraints. The land use policies in Hong Kong have been changing since the late 80s in response to such misallocation. This study investigates the impact of these policies on prices and rental yields of industrial properties in Hong Kong. In addition, the impact of economic restructuring on the determinants of industry propel1y prices is also examined. The open door policy has attracted many industrialists to move their production base across the border to take advantage of the low land and labour costs leaving their industrial buildings in Hong Kong underutilized. Due to statutory zoning and restrictions in the land leases, redeveloping these industrial buildings for other uses is difficult and costly due to multiple ownership and high modification premium. However lease enforcement actions on industrial buildings are difficult and ineffective. The owners of industrial buildings will weigh the costs against the benefits of non-conforming use and decide whether they will leave their industry properties underutilized, use them for non-conforming uses, apply for change of use and pay associated fees / premiums or proceed with a combination of all these. The empirical results in this study suggest that the benefits outweigh the costs of non-conforming uses of industrial buildings, in particular for office uses. This is evidenced by the fact that industrial property prices were affected not only by the demand for spaces for industrial production but also by other demand drivers not related to the industrial productions in Hong Kong. These demand drivers included volume of re-export and service sector employment. These are demand drivers given the term Non-Industrial-Production Demand Drivers (NIPDD) in this study. Service sector employment is an office demand driver and that office use in industrial buildings is usually the highest valued non-conforming use, therefore the correlation between service sector and industrial property prices is an indicator of the intensity of non-conforming uses. Since the late 80''s, various changes in government policies toward industrial land use have been implemented with the aim to rectify land resource misallocation. These policy changes can be classified into (1) Planning Control Relaxation: changes that involve relaxation of planning control on redevelopment or conversion of existing industrial properties to other uses, which may involve rezoning of some industrial areas and (2) Use Restriction Change: changes that permit more types of uses in existing industrial properties with or without paying a premium or fee. The empirical results in this study suggest that, other things being equal, Planning Control Relaxation has a positive impact on industrial property prices while Use Restriction Change have strengthened or weakened the impact of service sector employment on industrial property prices depending on the nature of the policy change. In addition, empirical analysis also showed that only the Planning Control Relaxation could reduce the rental yield of industrial property by reducing the risk premium. The effect

Download or read book Competition Policy and Law in China Hong Kong and Taiwan written by Mark Williams and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-08 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the competition regimes of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Download or read book A Study of Land Supply and Its Impact on Residential Property Prices in Hong Kong written by Pui-shan Wong and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Relationship Between the Land Use Planning Land Supply and Housing Prices in Hong Kong written by Eddie C. M. Hui and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stabilizing China s Housing Market written by Richard Koss and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.

Download or read book Dynamic Impact of Land Supply on Population Mobility with Evidence from Hong Kong written by Eddie C. M. Hui and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book LAND SUPPLY HOUSING PRICE OF written by Yuk-Yi Alice Cheung and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-28 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Land Supply and Housing Price of Hong Kong: Implication for Urban Planning" by Yuk-yi, Alice, Cheung, 張玉儀, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b4389370 Subjects: Real property - Prices - China - Hong Kong Land use - China - Hong Kong City planning - China - Hong Kong Real property - Prices Land use - Planning Town planning

Download or read book An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Growth and Real Estate Investment in Hong Kong 1973 99 written by Gaolu Zou and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "An Analysis of the Interaction Between Economic Growth and Real Estate Investment in Hong Kong (1973-99)" by Gaolu, Zou, 鄒高祿, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: -A- Abstract Abstract This study examines the interactions between economic growth and real estate investment in the Hong Kong Special Economic Region (HKSAR). Recent studies in the US suggest that residential investment leads Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while non-residential investment lags behind GDP. Therefore, it has been suggested that the housing construction cycle leads the business cycle. An analysis of the data in Hong Kong suggests that total investment in housing lags behind GDP, which seems to contradict previous studies. In Hong Kong, public housing is a significant component of the housing sector. More than 40% of the population lives in public housing. A different picture emerges when total investment in housing is disaggregated into private and public components. The results of this study suggest that private housing investment leads GDP, while public residential investment lags behind GDP. This suggests that private -A- -B- Abstract housing investment is a good predictor of economic growth. This result also suggests that any policy that results in diverting funds away from the private residential market is likely to cause a recession. The fact that public sector housing investment lags behind the economy suggests that the government's public housing policy has been reactive rather than proactive. This is in line with the HKSAR government's conservative fiscal policy, which aims to maintain a balanced budget. Since an increase in investment in public housing will crowd out private sector housing investment, it would be unwise to stimulate the economy by investing in public housing, although it may be convenient for the government to do so. The data from the HKSAR also shows that non-residential investment has been lagging behind GDP. This is consistent with results in previous studies. Non-residential investment as a lagging indicator is further confirmed with data from the HKSAR. -B- -C- Abstract One of the major differences between the findings in this study and those in other studies is that of the long-run equilibrium relationship between real estate investments and aggregate demand. We have shown that real estate investments do not necessarily have a long-run equilibrium relationship with GDP. In contrast to previous studies, we found that both private residential and non-residential investments do not have a long-run equilibrium relationship with GDP. As for non-residential investment, this could be explained by the major economic restructuring that has taken place in China since it adopted its open door economic policy in 1979. The relocation of the production base (for both goods and services) from the HKSAR to the Pearl River Delta has resulted in a declining demand for non-residential buildings in the long run. As for private residential investment, the Sino-British agreement that restricted land supply from 1983-1997 prohibited the formation of a long-run -C- -D- Abstract equilibrium relationship between private housing investment and economic growth. On the other hand, public housing investment does have a long-run equilibrium relationship with GDP, which further confirms the conservative fiscal policy adopted by the government and the reactive nature of the HKSAR's public housing policy. The results obtained in this study are very significant and robust in that they are consistent under a wide range of time-series specificatio