Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by R. C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by Ray C.. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Economics and Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cross-national study of the effect of economic conditions on voting behavior in the United States and the Western democracies

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by Gebhard Kirchgässner and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior written by Jan E. Leighley and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today

Download or read book The Message Matters written by Lynn Vavreck and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-26 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.

Download or read book Issues And Elections written by Euel W Elliott and published by Westview Press. This book was released on 1989-04-20 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

Download or read book The American Political Economy written by Douglas A. Hibbs and published by . This book was released on 1987-10-22 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and authoritative work on relationships between the economy and politics in the years from Eisenhower through Reagan. Hibbs identifies which groups “win” and “lose” from inflations and recessions and shows how voters’ perceptions and reactions to economic events affect the electoral fortunes of political parties and presidents.

Download or read book Temporal and Causal Dynamics Between the Economy and Presidents written by Taeyong Park and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation project investigates how economic conditions influence presidential support in the United States. In particular, I focus on uncovering the temporal and causal dynamics to better understand the topic.Of the three papers of this dissertation, the first paper develops a Bayesian machine learning method and uses it to examine the temporal dynamics between macro-level income growth and presidential approval. I develop an estimation algorithm to fit multivariate time series models via the Bayesian adaptive lasso, a machine learning-based estimator that penalizes "unimportant" lagged variables and mitigates the problem of overfitting. This new methodological tool allows analysts to employ large-scale time series and a multitude of lagged terms. Consequently, it aids in discovering lagged policy effects or inertia of dynamic relationships, which have so far been difficult to theorize or test. The application of the method to quarterly data for presidential approval ratings uncovers substantial lagged effects and positive long-run effects of income growth.The second paper conducts a causal mediation analysis to explore two causal mechanisms that shape the effect of local unemployment on presidential voting: retrospective voting and issue-ownership voting. In an individual-level mediation analysis of the 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections, this paper presents evidence that both mechanisms were at work in these most recent elections. The incumbent party, Democrat or Republican, is punished when local unemployment is rising, through its influence on retrospective evaluations of the national economy. Once this mediation effect representing retrospective voting is accounted for, local unemployment bolsters support for Democratic presidential candidates and drives down support for Republican candidates, implying that the two parties' distinct reputations for the unemployment issue engender issue-ownership voting.Finally, the third paper formulates two partisan mechanisms that might moderate the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and presidential approval: retrospective and prospective partisan mechanisms. I test this new theoretical framework against quarterly data for multiple economic indicators and presidential approval from 1964 to 2015. The effect of unemployment squares with the prospective partisan mechanism: in response to deteriorating job conditions, citizens reward Democratic presidents and punish Republican presidents with an expectation that Democratic presidents will deal better with the unemployment issue. The effects of inflation, economic growth, and income growth are best explained by the retrospective partisan mechanism: only Republican presidents are punished for deteriorating conditions in terms of these three economic indicators, suggesting that these economic issues are salient for the Republican party and citizens hold Republicans more accountable for performance on these issues.

Download or read book The American Voter written by Angus Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1980-09-15 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On voting behavior in the United States

Download or read book Presidential Economics written by Herbert Stein and published by American Enterprise Institute Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the events, policies, and personalities that have shaped our economy for a half century. With a wit and lucidity rare in economic writing, Herbert Stein examines the events, policies, and personalities that have shaped our economyfor a half-century.