Download or read book The Current Account Income Balance External Adjustment Channel Or Vulnerability Amplifier written by Mr. Alberto Behar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In terms of size, the net income balance (IB) is comparable to the trade balance (TB) for many countries. Yet the role of the IB in mitigating external vulnerabilities or complicating external adjustment remains underexplored. This paper studies the role of the IB in stabilizing or destabilizing the current account over the cycle and in crises. Our results show that, due to a negative correlation with the TB, the IB significantly dampens the time series volatility of the current account for most countries. However, the IB generally does not improve during crisis episodes, so current account adjustment occurs entirely through improvements in the TB. The paper also estimates IB semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate (ER). Semi-elasticities are small for most countries, so the IB is generally not a significant channel through which the ER stabilizes the current account, and trade-based semi-elasticities are, with some important exceptions, good proxies for current account semi-elasticities used in external sector assessments.
Download or read book The Responsiveness of the Income Balance to the Exchange Rate written by Alberto Behar and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The role of the income balance in mitigating external vulnerabilities remains underexplored. We estimate income balance semi-elasticities with respect to the exchange rate. Semi-elasticities are small for most countries. Therefore, the income balance is generally not a significant channel through which the exchange rate stabilizes the current account and most exchange rate misalignment estimates can focus on trade, but there is a significant minority of exceptions.
Download or read book External Adjustment written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
Download or read book 2022 Update of the External Balance Assessment Methodology written by Mr. Cian Allen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-03-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The assessment of external positions and exchange rates of member countries is a key mandate of the IMF. The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has provided the framework for conducting external sector assessments by Fund staff since its introduction in 2012. This paper provides the latest version of the EBA methodology, updated in 2022 with additional refinements to the current account and real exchange rate regression models, as well as updated estimates for other components of the EBA methodology. The paper also includes an assessment of how estimated current account gaps based on EBA are associated with future external adjustment.
Download or read book Adjustment of External Imbalances written by Ruizhi Xie and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis investigates the nature of the dynamic relationship between external balances and exchange rate dynamics in a macroeconomy. Specifically, this study focuses on how various measures of external balances serve as economic buffers to mitigate the effect of exchange rate shock to the economy. It examines the dynamic relationship between external balances and exchange rate shock via the application of cointegrated vector autoregression method and innovation accounting with generalized impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. The data sample spans the period 1986-2008 and includes three important developing countries: Brazil, China and India. Empirical evidence shows that for China and India, understanding of the exchange rate dynamics is helpful in predicting the movement of external balances. But for Brazil, the reverse path is true. Results of generalized impulse responses suggest that external balances demonstrate a predictable and systematic pattern after a one-time exchange rate shock. Specifically, the results indicate that exchange rate shock generates a positive response in current account adjustment and has a negative impact on capital gains. The latter soon gives rise to a small drop in current account balance due to temporary income shock and capital mobility. Taking account of the overall current account and capital gains adjustment (one positive and one negative), change in net foreign assets (NFA) position is largely cushioned from exchange rate shock. Integrating the results of generalized impulse responses and Granger causality tests, it is easy to find that there exists a feedback mechanism which significantly contributes to the adjustment of external imbalances. Moreover, terms of trade and domestic productivity serve as transmission channels which play a critical role in the system. From a policy perspective, in coping with enlarged global imbalances, exchange rate as well as terms of trade and domestic productivity should receive more attention in policy decisions to stabilize the economy.
Download or read book The Turning Tide How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates written by Bo Jiang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a new firm-level dataset with comprehensive information on Asian firms’ FX liabilities, we show that Asia’s nonfinancial corporate sector is vulnerable to a tightening of global financial conditions. Higher global interest rates and exchange rate depreciation increase the probability of default of Asian firms. A 30 percent currency depreciation is associated with a two-notch downgrade in the corporate credit rating (e.g., from A to BBB+), resulting in 7 percent of Asian firms falling into bankruptcy. But the impact is nonlinear—as the firms’ FX liability increases, the balance sheet channel of exchange rate offsets, then dominates, the competitiveness channel. The balance sheet channel offsets the competitiveness channel when the share of U.S. dollar debt is between 10 and 20 percent. We also find that currency depreciation increases firm-level investment on average, but for firms with the share of FX liabilities above 20 percent, investment contracts with depreciation.
Download or read book Cross Border Currency Exposures written by Luciana Juvenal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a dataset on the currency composition of the international investment position for a group of 50 countries for the period 1990-2017. It improves available data based on estimates by incorporating actual data reported by statistical authorities and refining estimation methods. The paper illustrates current and new uses of these data, with particular focus on the evolution of currency exposures of cross-border positions.
Download or read book From Banking to Sovereign Stress Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-22 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Download or read book Japan s Foreign Assets and Liabilities Implications for the External Accounts written by Mariana Colacelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-05 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The composition of Japan’s current account balance has changed over time, with an increasing income balance primarily reflecting a growing net foreign asset position and higher corporate saving. A comparison of Japan’s income balance with peer countries highlights: (i) relatively high yields on FDI assets, and (ii) very low FDI liabilities in Japan. Panel estimation is used to derive separate exchange rate elasticities for income credit and debit, with novel accounting that disentangles the mechanical from the economic response to exchange rate fluctuations. Despite the changing composition of Japan’s current account balance, its response to exchange rate movements still operates mostly through the traditional trade channel, with a small but reinforcing contribution from the income balance.
Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report April 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Global Financial Stability Report examines current risks facing the global financial system and policy actions that may mitigate these. It analyzes the key challenges facing financial and nonfinancial firms as they continue to repair their balance sheets. Chapter 2 takes a closer look at whether sovereign credit default swaps markets are good indicators of sovereign credit risk. Chapter 3 examines unconventional monetary policy in some depth, including the policies pursued by the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Download or read book The ASEAN Way written by Ms.Ana Corbacho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.
Download or read book The End of Poverty written by Jeffrey D. Sachs and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2006-02-28 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Book and man are brilliant, passionate, optimistic and impatient . . . Outstanding." —The Economist The landmark exploration of economic prosperity and how the world can escape from extreme poverty for the world's poorest citizens, from one of the world's most renowned economists Hailed by Time as one of the world's hundred most influential people, Jeffrey D. Sachs is renowned for his work around the globe advising economies in crisis. Now a classic of its genre, The End of Poverty distills more than thirty years of experience to offer a uniquely informed vision of the steps that can transform impoverished countries into prosperous ones. Marrying vivid storytelling with rigorous analysis, Sachs lays out a clear conceptual map of the world economy. Explaining his own work in Bolivia, Russia, India, China, and Africa, he offers an integrated set of solutions to the interwoven economic, political, environmental, and social problems that challenge the world's poorest countries. Ten years after its initial publication, The End of Poverty remains an indispensible and influential work. In this 10th anniversary edition, Sachs presents an extensive new foreword assessing the progress of the past decade, the work that remains to be done, and how each of us can help. He also looks ahead across the next fifteen years to 2030, the United Nations' target date for ending extreme poverty, offering new insights and recommendations.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-11 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.
