Download or read book The Contribution of Structural Break Models to Forecasting Macroeconomic Series written by Luc Bauwens and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper compares the forecasting performance of different models which have been proposed for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks. These models differ in their treatment of the break process, the model which applies in each regime and the out-of-sample probability of a break occurring. In an extensive empirical evaluation involving many important macroeconomic time series, we demonstrate the presence of structural breaks and their importance for forecasting in the vast majority of cases. We find no single forecasting model consistently works best in the presence of structural breaks. In many cases, the formal modeling of the break process is important in achieving good forecast performance. However, there are also many cases where simple, rolling window based forecasts perform well.

Download or read book A Comparison of Forecasting Procedures for Macroeconomic Series written by Luc Bauwens and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-06-29 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.

Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series written by Michael Clements and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998-10-08 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Download or read book Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Dynamic Factor Models Under Structural Breaks written by Johannes Degn and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 495 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1984, the University of Bonn (FRG) and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg (Austria), created a joint research group to analyze the relationship between economic growth and structural change. The research team was to examine the commodity composition as well as the size and direction of commodity and credit flows among countries and regions. Krelle (1988) reports on the results of this "Bonn-IIASA" research project. At the same time, an informal IIASA Working Group was initiated to deal with prob lems of the statistical analysis of economic data in the context of structural change: What tools do we have to identify nonconstancy of model parameters? What type of models are particularly applicable to nonconstant structure? How is forecasting affected by the presence of nonconstant structure? What problems should be anticipated in applying these tools and models? Some 50 experts, mainly statisticians or econometricians from about 15 countries, came together in Lodz, Poland (May 1985); Berlin, GDR (June 1986); and Sulejov, Poland (September 1986) to present and discuss their findings. This volume contains a selected set of those conference contributions as well as several specially invited chapters.

Download or read book Econometrics of Structural Change written by Walter Krämer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t

Download or read book Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-03-12 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".

Download or read book Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer. This book was released on 1991 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".

Download or read book Structural Breaks and Forecasting in Empirical Finance and Macroeconomics written by Zhongfang He and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays in empirical finance and macroeconomics. The first essay proposes a new structural-break vector autoregressive model for predicting real output growth by the nominal yield curve. The model allows for the possibility of both in-sample and out-of-sample breaks in parameter values and uses information in historical regimes to make inference on out-of-sample breaks. A Bayesian estimation and forecasting procedure is developed which accounts for the uncertainty of both structural breaks and model parameters. I discuss dynamic consistency when forecasting recursively and provide a solution. Applied to monthly US data, I find strong evidence of breaks in the predictive relation between the yield curve and output growth. Incorporating the possibility of structural breaks improves out-of-sample forecasts of output growth. The third essay proposes a new tilt stochastic volatility model which extends the existing volatility models by modeling the asymmetric correlation between return and volatility innovations in a unified and flexible framework. The Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) procedure is adapted to estimate the model. Simulation studies show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML)-EIS estimation of the model is accurate. The new model is applied to the CRSP daily returns. I find the extensions are significant and incorporating them improves the accuracy of volatility estimates. The second essay proposes a sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks. We use particle filtering techniques that allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real-time. The method conveniently deals with the path dependence problem that arises in these type of models. The performance of the method is shown to work well using simulated data. Applied to daily NASDAQ returns, we find strong evidence of structural breaks in the long-run variance of returns. Models with flexible return distributions such as t-innovations or with jumps indicate fewer breaks than models with normal return innovations and are favored by the data.

Download or read book Model Identification and Forecasting Under Structural Break written by Titus O. Awokuse and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty written by David E. Rapach and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2008-02-29 with total page 691 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.

Download or read book Essays on Structural Breaks and Forecasting in Econometric Models written by Yaein Baek and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Instability of parametric models is a common problem in many fields of economics. In econometrics, these changes in the underlying data generating process are referred to as structural breaks. Although there is an extensive literature on estimation and statistical tests of structural breaks, existing methods fail to adequately capture a break. This dissertation consists of three papers on developing econometric methods for structural breaks and forecasting. The first chapter develops a new method in estimating the location of a structural break in a linear model and provide theoretical results and empirical applications of the estimator. In finite sample the conventional least-squares estimates a break occurred at either ends of the sample with high probability, regardless of the true break point. I suggest an estimator of the break point that resolves this pile up issue and thus, provide a more accurate estimate of the break. The second chapter constructs a statistical test to test existence of a structural break when the direction of the parameter shift is known. In practice it is likely that a researcher is interested in testing for a structural break in a particular direction because the direction is known, such as policy change or historical data. We incorporate this information in constructing three tests that have higher power when direction is correctly specified. The last chapter proposes a multi-period forecasting method that is robust to model misspecification. When we are interested in obtaining long horizon ahead forecasts, the direct forecast method is more favorable than the iterated forecast because it is more robust to misspecification. However, direct forecast estimates tend to have jagged shapes across horizons. I use a mechanism analogous to ridge regression on the direct forecast model to maintain robustness while smoothing out erratic estimates.

Download or read book Testing for Structural Breaks in Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Download or read book Forecasting U S Investment written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a crucial issue for the U.S. and global recovery. On the basis of several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 percent on average over the 2010-12 period. The contribution of investment to real GDP growth will be 0.8 percentage points on average over the same period.

Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike