Download or read book The Carry Trade and Implied Moment Risk written by Michael Broll and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The carry trade is a zero net investment strategy that borrows in low yielding currencies and subsequently invests in high yielding currencies. It has been identified as highly profitable FX strategy delivering significantly excess returns with high Sharpe ratios. This paper shows that these excess returns are especially compensation for bearing FX variance and negative skewness risk. Additionally, factor risks that affect foreign money changes, foreign inflation changes, as well as changes to a newly developed Carry Trade Activity Index and the VIX index, as a proxy for global risk aversion, make up the carry trade risk anatomy. These findings are not exclusively important for carry traders, but also contribute to the understanding of currency risk in the cross-section. This is directly linked to asset pricing tests from Lustig et al. (2011), which have shown that currency baskets sorted on their interest rate differentials are all exposed to carry trade returns as a risk factor. Furthermore, this paper finds evidence that a decreased level of funding liquidity potentially leads to carry trade unwindings, controlling for equity and FX implied variance and skewness effects, which supports the theoretical model of liquidity spirals developed by Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009).
Download or read book Volatility and the Carry Trade written by Vineer Bhansali and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The currency 'carry trade', in which an investor buys assets in a higher yielding currency by borrowing in a lower yielding currency, has been consistently exploited as a source of profits by investors. In this paper, we discuss the effectiveness of the carry trade as prospective risk (measured by implied volatilities) in exchange rates varies. Based on simple equilibrium arguments we propose the hypothesis that the carry trade is effectively a form of short volatility trade. We also explore a simple strategy that combines carry with options and present a heuristic statistic for the measurement of the economics of the carry trade. We test the stratgy on actual historical carry and option price data and find that the hypothetical strategy allows for the presence of arbitrage opportunities between the forex option and carry markets.
Download or read book Handbook of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-05-29 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Download or read book Carry Trade Returns and Segmented Risk Pricing written by Gordon Schulze and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The returns to carry trades are controversially discussed as there seems to be no unifying risk-based explanation of currency returns and stock returns. This paper addresses carry trade returns from a risk pricing perspective and examines if these returns can be connected to persistent cross-country differences of risk aversion. Therefore, I analyze a data set of individual carry trade currencies. Based on a GMM estimation, I find significantly large and persistent cross-country differences of risk aversion in the interest rate market compared to the implied risk aversion in the stock market. In this context, investment currencies are more sensitive to U.S. consumption risk while funding currencies provide a hedge. However, this also implies that there is no unifying SDF and consequently, both the interest rate market and the stock market appear to be segmented in risk pricing for carry trade countries.
Download or read book Using Option Implied Information to Improve Currency Carry Trade Profits written by Michael Broll and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates an efficient parametric portfolio policy model to improve the return distribution of the well-known currency carry trade investment strategy. This carry trade strategy invests into high-yielding currencies that are subsequently funded by low-yielding currencies. Following this investment procedure has led to significantly excess returns for the investors, at least over the past four decades. However, these returns were subject to a high crash risk, which hit its peak during the US subprime crisis in 2008/2009 with portfolio losses of up to one third of the investment value. The constructed model overcomes these bad portfolio properties through computing the optimal carry trade portfolio weight for any monthly revolving investment period. This is done by modeling the optimal weight as a function of the carry trade's risk characteristics. Especially, when using global FX option-implied variance risk, as well as global consumer price inflation and commodity prices as background risk factors, the model delivers extremely-efficient out-of-sample results with annualized mean returns of up to 8.4% over an eight-year period, accompanied with a low standard deviation, positively skewed returns and leading to Sharpe ratios around unity, including transaction costs. These promising statistics are largely maintained when allowing for higher leveraged portfolios.
Download or read book Is Implied Taylor Rule Interest Rate Applicable as a Carry Trade Strategy written by Gokcen Ogruk-Maz and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the performance of carry trade strategies with implied Taylor rule interest rate differentials and compares the performance statistics of them over the naive carry trade strategy with actual interest rates. Carry trade, a currency speculation strategy, between high-interest rate and low-interest rate currencies generates high payoff on average and has a possibility of crash risk. I argue that the crash risk is reduced with implied Taylor rule interest rate differentials as a trading strategy in Yen and Franc trades for the whole sample period. During the recent financial crisis, the carry trading strategies with Taylor rule perform best in terms of mean returns, risk adjusted returns and downside risk.
Download or read book Carry Trade Strategies Based on Option Implied Information written by Steven Shu-Hsiu Chen and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document carry trade returns based on the moments extracted from options on the underlying currencies. We establish three important results. First, a currency pair is predicted to have greater excess returns if option-implied returns are more volatile, are more left-skewed, and have fatter tails than the returns of other currency pairs. Second, strategies based on option-implied information improve on benchmark strategies based on realized market returns and macroeconomic data. Third, if the option-implied returns of a currency pair are more left-skewed than in the past, anti-carry trades rather than carry trades perform better.
Download or read book Trading Volatility written by Colin Bennett and published by . This book was released on 2014-08-17 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication aims to fill the void between books providing an introduction to derivatives, and advanced books whose target audience are members of quantitative modelling community. In order to appeal to the widest audience, this publication tries to assume the least amount of prior knowledge. The content quickly moves onto more advanced subjects in order to concentrate on more practical and advanced topics. "A master piece to learn in a nutshell all the essentials about volatility with a practical and lively approach. A must read!" Carole Bernard, Equity Derivatives Specialist at Bloomberg "This book could be seen as the 'volatility bible'!" Markus-Alexander Flesch, Head of Sales & Marketing at Eurex "I highly recommend this book both for those new to the equity derivatives business, and for more advanced readers. The balance between theory and practice is struck At-The-Money" Paul Stephens, Head of Institutional Marketing at CBOE "One of the best resources out there for the volatility community" Paul Britton, CEO and Founder of Capstone Investment Advisors "Colin has managed to convey often complex derivative and volatility concepts with an admirable simplicity, a welcome change from the all-too-dense tomes one usually finds on the subject" Edmund Shing PhD, former Proprietary Trader at BNP Paribas "In a crowded space, Colin has supplied a useful and concise guide" Gary Delany, Director Europe at the Options Industry Council
Download or read book Carry Trades and Tail Risk of Exchange Rates written by Chanaka N. Ganepola and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historically, Carry trades have been a success story for most investor and a major source of funds for emerging economies maintaining higher interest rates. Therefore it's a timely topic to investigate the risk embedded in such transactions and to what extent the carry trade returns explain the tail risk. Initially, this research estimates the tail index of all the currencies and formulates a unique inverse function for all the currencies in relation to Power laws, with the idea of estimating the respective Value-at-Risk. This research considers twenty five currencies and replicates them in to five portfolios based on the annualised daily return of a weekly forward contract. Trade was executed assuming a U.S. investor, who goes long in a high return portfolio and short in a low return portfolio. Further, this research examines the impact of carry trade returns on the overall tail risk within the context of foreign exchange and interest rate gain in long and short positions of the trade. The results indicate that tail risk cannot be explained effectively by its returns because of its exponential nature. However, I find that tail risk is mostly influenced by the long position of the carry trade. Furthermore, the return of the foreign exchange component appears to have a better explanation on the tail risk compared to the interest rate return. The Value-at-Risk analysis also suggests that the tail risk of overall strategy is influenced by the tail risk of foreign exchange component embedded in the long position of the trade.
Download or read book The Carry Trade written by Kent D. Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We find important differences in dollar-based and dollar-neutral G10 carry trades. Dollar-neutral trades have positive average returns, are highly negatively skewed, are correlated with risk factors, and exhibit considerable downside risk. In contrast, a diversified dollar-carry portfolio has a higher average excess return, a higher Sharpe ratio, minimal skewness, is uncorrelated with standard risk-factors, and exhibits no downside risk. Distributions of drawdowns and maximum losses from daily data indicate a role for time-varying autocorrelation in determining negative skewness at longer horizons.
Download or read book Volatility Trading website written by Euan Sinclair and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-06-23 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility Trading, Sinclair offers you a quantitative model for measuring volatility in order to gain an edge in your everyday option trading endeavors. With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Your goal, Sinclair explains, must be clearly defined and easily expressed-if you cannot explain it in one sentence, you probably aren't completely clear about what it is. The same applies to your statistical edge. If you do not know exactly what your edge is, you shouldn't trade. He shows how, in addition to the numerical evaluation of a potential trade, you should be able to identify and evaluate the reason why implied volatility is priced where it is, that is, why an edge exists. This means it is also necessary to be on top of recent news stories, sector trends, and behavioral psychology. Finally, Sinclair underscores why trades need to be sized correctly, which means that each trade is evaluated according to its projected return and risk in the overall context of your goals. As the author concludes, while we also need to pay attention to seemingly mundane things like having good execution software, a comfortable office, and getting enough sleep, it is knowledge that is the ultimate source of edge. So, all else being equal, the trader with the greater knowledge will be the more successful. This book, and its companion CD-ROM, will provide that knowledge. The CD-ROM includes spreadsheets designed to help you forecast volatility and evaluate trades together with simulation engines.
Download or read book The Time varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies written by Charlotte Christiansen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Explaining the Returns to the Carry Trade written by Maya Bandia and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Carry Trade written by Kent Daniel and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine carry trade returns formed from the G10 currencies. Performance attributes depend on the base currency. Dynamically spread-weighting and risk-rebalancing positions improves performance. Equity, bond, FX, volatility, and downside equity risks cannot explain profitability. Dollar-neutral carry trades exhibit insignificant abnormal returns, while the dollar exposure part of the carry trade earns significant abnormal returns with little skewness. Downside equity market betas of our carry trades are not significantly different from unconditional betas. Hedging with options reduces but does not eliminate abnormal returns. Distributions of drawdowns and maximum losses from daily data indicate the importance of time-varying autocorrelation in determining the negative skewness of longer horizon returns.
Download or read book Understanding Carry Trade Risks Using Bayesian Methods written by Damla Gunes and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Moreover, the first component in volatility is the common factor deriving all risky asset vols, explaining 75% of the total variance. To model this dynamic relationship between these portfolios, we estimate a multivariate normal Markov switching (MS) model using them. Then we develop a dynamic trading strategy, in which we use the MS model estimation results as input to the mean-variance optimization to find the optimal portfolio weights to invest in at each period. This trading strategy is able to dynamically diversify between the portfolios, and having a sharp ratio of 1.25, it performs much better than the input and benchmark portfolios. Finally, MS results indicate that Delta Carry has the lowest variance and positive expected return in both states of the MS model. This supports our findings from risk analysis that Delta Carry performs well during volatile periods, and vol elevations have a direct positive impact on its returns.
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Risk and the Predictability of Carry Trade Returns written by Gino Cenedese and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an empirical investigation of the time-series predictive ability of foreign exchange risk measures on the return to the carry trade, a popular investment strategy that borrows in low-interest currencies and lends in high-interest currencies. Using quantile regressions, we find that higher market variance is significantly related to large future carry trade losses, which is consistent with the unwinding of the carry trade in times of high volatility. The decomposition of market variance into average variance and average correlation shows that the predictive power of market variance is primarily due to average variance since average correlation is not significantly related to carry trade returns. Finally, a new version of the carry trade that conditions on market variance generates performance gains net of transaction costs.
Download or read book Carry Trade Indices written by Johannes Tüxen and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the risk premia and performance of a popular currency trading strategy called the carry trade. The carry trade earns the interest differential by borrowing in low interest rate currencies and investing in high interest rate currencies. The risk factors taken into perspective are the well discussed liquidity risk, global foreign exchange volatility and loadings on US consumption growth. In addition a novel factor - the sovereign default probability - is introduced. By using global changes in credit default swap spreads as a proxy the results show that sovereign default probability is negatively related to carry trade returns. The analysis includes current carry trade products and theoretical build portfolios. Through single and multiple linear regressions I find that currency crash risk, global FX volatility and sovereign default are key risk drivers. Out-of-sample tests further conclude that the risk exposure significantly increases during times of global financial crisis. In addition, portfolios using mean-variance optimization algorithms can reduce the risk exposure.
