Download or read book The Behavior of Currencies during Risk off Episodes written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Download or read book The Behavior of Currencies during Risk off Episodes written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Download or read book The Behavior of Currencies during Risk off Episodes written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2013-01-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Download or read book The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency written by Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.

Download or read book 2013 Spillover Report Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth. Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies. Spillovers from policy uncertainty can occur through several channels. Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe. Policy uncertainty could also raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets. This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and European policy uncertainty on other regions. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: What do we mean by policy uncertainty? How well can we measure it? How has policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe evolved during the past several decades? And how large are the spillovers to economic activity in other regions? The analysis suggests that sharp increases in U.S. and European policy uncertainty in the past have temporarily lowered investment and output in other regions to varying degrees. It also suggests that a marked decrease in policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe in the near term could help boost global investment and output.

Download or read book Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations written by Mr.Fei Han and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-07-01 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.

Download or read book Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-16 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many emerging market economies have relied on foreign exchange intervention (FXI) in response to gross capital inflows. In this paper, we study whether FXI has been an effective tool to dampen the effects of these inflows on the exchange rate. To deal with endogeneity issues, we look at the response of different countries to plausibly exogenous gross inflows, and explore the cross country variation of FXI and exchange rate responses. Consistent with the portfolio balance channel, we find that larger FXI leads to less exchange rate appreciation in response to gross inflows.

Download or read book Risk Management in Emerging Markets written by Sabri Boubaker and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 746 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses three main dimensions of risk management in emerging markets: 1) the effectiveness of risk management practices; 2) current issues and challenges in risk assessment and modelling in emerging market countries; 3) the responses of emerging markets to the recent financial crises and the design of risk management models.

Download or read book Can Abenomics Succeed written by Mr.Dennis P. J. Botman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-06 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan’s revitalization plan, dubbed the “three arrows of Abenomics,” devises a three-pronged strategy—combining fiscal, monetary, and structural policies—to overcome that country’s apparent inability to sustain economic recovery. This book is the first comprehensive assessment of Abenomics and the reforms needed to make it a success, including aggressive monetary easing, growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, and structural and financial sector reforms.

Download or read book Macroprudential Policies in Response to External Financial Shocks written by Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-20 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how countries use Macroprudential Policies (MaPs) to respond to external shocks such as US monetary policy surprises or fluctuations in capital flows. Constructing a model of a small open economy with financial frictions and a MaP authority that adjusts loan to value (LTV) ratio limits on borrowers and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) limits on banks, we show that using MaPs where stochastic external financial shocks are present entails a trade-off between macro-financial volatility and GDP growth. The terms of the trade-off are a function of a few country characteristics that amplify financial channels of external monetary shocks. Estimating MaP reaction functions for a panel of 41 countries in the period 2000–2017, we find that countercyclical macroprudential policy in response to surprise US monetary tightening is more likely for countries with net short currency mismatches (that is, foreign currency denominated liabilities larger than foreign currency denominated assets), consistent with the model’s predictions. The paper also finds that domestic credit and interest rates are more insulated from US monetary tightening for countries that employ MaPs countercyclically.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin March 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-15 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Summaries in the March 2013 Research Bulletin discuss "Trade Finance and Its Role in the Great Trade Collapse" (JaeBin Ahn) and "Sovereign Debt: How to Track Who Is Buying and Selling It" (Serkan Arslanalp and Takahiro Tsuda). The Q&A looks at "Seven Questions on the Implications of Global Supply Chains for Real Effective Exchange Rates" (Rudolfs Bems). Readers can also find in this issue a listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications. The Bulletin also includes a call for papers for a research conference and information on free access to the IMF Economic Review in April.

Download or read book Conquering the Fear of Freedom written by Shinji Takagi and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2015-04-16 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conquering the Fear of Freedom presents an analytical review of Japanese exchange rate policy from the end of World War II to the present. It examines how authorities, starting with the imposition of draconian controls over all international financial flows, moved toward eliminating virtually all state interference regulating foreign exchange transactions, including official intervention in the foreign exchange market. It describes how policy and institutional frameworks evolved, explains their domestic and international contexts, and assesses the impacts and consequences of policy actions. Following successful exchange rate-based stabilization in the early 1950s, Japan entered the world trading system with an overvalued currency, which helped perpetuate exchange and capital controls. As the culture of administrative control became ingrained, Japan took a decidedly gradualist approach to establishing current and capital account convertibility. The protracted capital account liberalization, coupled with slow domestic financial liberalization, created large swings in the yen's exchange rate when it was floated in the 1970s. Politicization by major trading partners of Japan's large bilateral trade surplus pressured authorities to subordinate domestic stability to external objectives. The ultimate outcome was costly: from the late 1980s, Japan successively experienced asset price inflation, a banking crisis, and economic stagnation. The book concludes by arguing that the shrinking trade surplus against the background of profound structural changes, the rise of China that has diminished the political intensity of any remaining bilateral economic issues, and the world's sympathy over two decades of deflation have given Japan, at least for now, the freedom to use macroeconomic policies for domestic purposes.

Download or read book China s Growing Influence on Asian Financial Markets written by Mr.Serkan Arslanalp and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-12 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds that financial spillovers from China to regional markets are on the rise. The main transmission channel appears to be trade linkages, although direct financial linkages are playing an increasing role. Without an impact on global risk premiums, China’s influence on regional markets is not yet to the level of the United States, but comparable to that of Japan. If China-related shocks are coupled with a rise in global risk premiums, as in August 2015 and January 2016, spillovers to the region could be significantly larger. Over the medium term, China’s financial spillovers could rise further with tighter financial linkages with the region, including through the ongoing internationalization of the renminbi and China’s capital account liberalization.

Download or read book Uncertainty and Cross Border Banking Flows written by Sangyup Choi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While global uncertainty—measured by the VIX—has proven to be a robust global “push” factor of international capital flows, there has been no systematic study assessing the role of country-specific uncertainty as a key (pull and push) factor of international capital flows. This paper tries to fill this gap in the literature by examining the effects of country-specific uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows using the confidential Bank for International Settlements Locational Banking Statistics data. The dyadic structure of this data allows to disentangle supply and demand factors and to better identify the effect of uncertainty shocks on cross-border banking flows. The results of this analysis suggest that: (i) uncertainty is both a push and pull factor that robustly predicts a decrease in both outflows (retrenchment) and inflows (stops); (ii) global banks rebalance their lending towards safer foreign borrowers from local borrowers when facing higher uncertainty; (iii) this rebalancing occurs only towards advanced economies (flight to quality), but not emerging market economies.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook April 2016 Asia and Pacific written by Mr.Ranil M Salgado and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although Asia remains a growth leader in the global economy, growth is expected to ease slightly to 5.5 percent during 2016, with countries affected to varying degrees by a still weak global recovery, slowing global trade, and the short-term impact of China’s growth transition. Structural reforms are needed if Asia is to maintain its position in the global economy, including reforms aimed at enhancing productive capacity. Needed reforms range from state-owned enterprise and financial sector reform in China to labor and product market reforms in Japan and reforms to remove supply bottlenecks in India, ASEAN, frontier economies, and small states.

Download or read book China s Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-15 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery. To quantify the global macroeconomic consequences of these shocks, we employ a GVAR model estimated for 26 countries/regions over the period 1981Q1 to 2013Q1. Our results indicate that (i) a one percent permanent negative GDP shock in China (equivalent to a one-off one percent growth shock) could have significant global macroeconomic repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative short-run impacts on global equity markets, oil prices and long-term interest rates.

Download or read book Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low Income Developing Countries written by Nina Biljanovska and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-05-23 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the transmission of business cycle fluctuations and credit conditions from advanced and emerging market economies to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs), using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and related countryspecific error correction models. We compile a dataset on bank credit, exports, output, and real effective exchange rate for 24 LIDCs and 16 Advanced and Emerging Markets, accounting for 74 percent of World GDP, from 1990Q1 to 2013Q4. Impulse response analyses show that business cycles in oil- and commodity-exporting, as well as frontier LIDCs are more synchronized with those in emerging market economies. Furthermore, credit conditions in the US seem to have a significant impact on exports and real economic activity in LIDCs, while these variables are basically unresponsive to credit availability in emerging markets or economies in other parts of the world.