Download or read book The Asymmetric Effects of Investor Sentiment written by Chandler Lutz and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We use the returns on lottery-like stocks to construct a novel index for investor sentiment in the stock market. This new measure is closely related to previously developed sentiment indicators, but more accurately tracks speculative episodes over the sample period. Using our index, we find that the relationship between sentiment and returns is asymmetric: during bear markets, high sentiment predicts low future returns for the cross-section of speculative stocks and the market overall while the relationship during bull markets is weak and often insignificant. Thus, the results suggest that sophisticated investors only act as corrective force during certain time periods. We also show that our index predicts implied volatility, media pessimism, and mutual fund flows. Overall, our findings are consistent with both the theories and anecdotal accounts of investor sentiment in the stock market.

Download or read book The Asymmetric Effect of Sentiment on Equity Returns written by Mishal Ahmed and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter titled "The Asymmetric Effect of Sentiment on U.S. Equity Returns", we test the asymmetric impact of investor sentiment, proxied by the Baker-Wurgler (2007) investor sentiment index, on expected stock returns in the U.S. We regress sentiment on market and economy-wide fundamentals, use the residuals as a measure of excess sentiment and estimate long-horizon return regressions using positive and negative components of excess sentiment as predictors. We hypothesize that excessive optimism leads investors to make significant portfolio changes whereas excessive pessimism makes investors more cautious about investing, due to loss aversion. Primary results confirm our hypothesis with a significant positive sentiment coefficient and an insignificant negative sentiment coefficient. Our results hold for an alternative investor sentiment measure, multiple stock market indexes and stock portfolios based on book-to-market ratio, size, operational efficiency, and level of investment. Long-horizon regressions are plagued by two econometric problems: overlapping observations and persistent predictors. We correct for these issues by providing Hodrick (1992) standard errors. In the second chapter titled "The Asymmetric Effect of Sentiment on Global Equity Returns", we test if excess investor sentiment has an asymmetric impact on expected stock returns in thirteen industrialized countries, using long-horizon regression. We regress consumer confidence, a proxy for investor sentiment, on economic indicators and use residuals as a measure of excess sentiment for each country. We regress expected stock returns on positive and negative components of excess sentiment for 6,12,24 and 36 months horizon and correct for econometric problems associated with long-horizon regression by providing Hodrick (1992) standard errors. We find evidence of a statistically significant difference in the effect of bullish and bearish sentiment on stock returns for most countries in the sample. Primary results hold for portfolios based on book-to-market ratio, earnings-price ratio, and dividend yield. In the third chapter titled "Do Economic Surprises Affect Stock Returns? The Role of Sentiment", we test whether the effect of macroeconomic surprises on stock returns is impacted by investor sentiment, proxied by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco’s daily sentiment index. We employ an event study methodology with separate regressions for six real economic indicators: GDP, industrial production, unemployment, retail sales, durable goods, and continuing jobless claims. We regress the daily stock returns for release dates of macroeconomic indicators on macroeconomic surprises. We test if positive and negative sentiment affects the portfolio choices of investors in response to unexpected macroeconomic news. We find consistent results with significant coefficients for pessimistic investors, as they make portfolio changes in response to news, and insignificant coefficients for optimistic investors, as they ignore news about real economic activity. We conclude that loss averse investors take a cautious approach to investing when they are bearish about overall stock market, unlike when they are bullish about stock market. Primary results hold for multiple stock market indexes, different stock portfolios and an alternative categorization of investor sentiment as low, high, and medium sentiment.

Download or read book The Asymmetric Impact of Investor Sentiment on Commodities Returns and Volatility written by Aktham Issa Maghyereh and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the effects of investor sentiment on returns and volatility of eight different commodities. Our findings suggest that sentiment has a predictive power on return and volatility of the commodities. Fundamentally, commodities return and volatility are positively associated with the sentiment. Furthermore, the empirical evidence suggests that the sentiment has a significant asymmetrical impact on volatilities such that negative sentiment has a significantly greater impact on volatility than does positive sentiment.

Download or read book The Real Effects of Investor Sentiment written by Christopher Polk and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study how stock market mispricing might influence individual firms' investment decisions. We find a positive relation between investment and a number of proxies for mispricing, controlling for investment opportunities and financial slack, suggesting that overpriced (underpriced) firms tend to overinvest (underinvest). Consistent with the predictions of our model, we find that investment is more sensitive to our mispricing proxies for firms with higher R & D intensity suggesting longer periods of information asymmetry and thus mispricing) or share turnover (suggesting that the firms' shareholders are short-term investors). We also find that firms with relatively high (low) investment subsequently have relatively low (high) stock returns, after controlling for investment opportunities and other characteristics linked to return predictability. These patterns are stronger for firms with higher R & D intensity or higher share turnover.

Download or read book An Extreme Firm Specific News Sentiment Asymmetry Based Trading Strategy written by Qiang Song and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: News sentiment has been empirically observed to have impact on financial market returns. In this study, we investigate firm-specific news from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics data from 2003 to 2014 and propose an optimal trading strategy based on a sentiment shock score and a sentiment trend score which measure extreme positive and negative sentiment levels for individual stocks. The intuition behind this approach is that the impact of events that generate extreme investor sentiment changes tends to have long and lasting effects to market movement and hence provides better prediction to market returns. We document that there exists an optimal signal region for both indicators. And we also show extreme positive sentiment provides better a signal than extreme negative sentiment, which presents an asymmetric market behavior in terms of news sentiment impact. The backtest results show that extreme positive sentiment generates robust and superior trading signals in all market conditions, and its risk-adjusted returns significantly outperform the S&P 500 index over the same time period.

Download or read book Indian Stock Market written by Gourishankar S. Hiremath and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-10-28 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: India is one of the major emerging economies of the world and has witnessed tremendous economic growth over the last decades. The reforms in the financial sector were introduced to infuse energy and vibrancy into the process of economic growth. The Indian stock market now has the largest number of listed companies in the world. The phenomenal growth of the Indian equity market and its growing importance in the economy is indicated by the extent of market capitalization and the increasing integration of the Indian economy with the global economy. Various schools of thought explain the behaviour of stock returns. The Efficient Market Theory is the most important theory of the School of Neoclassical Finance based on rational expectation and no-trade argument. The book investigates the growth and efficiency of the Indian stock market in the theoretical framework of the Efficiency Market Hypothesis (EMH). The main objective of the present study is to examine the returns behaviour in the Indian equity market in the changed market environment. A detailed and rigorous analysis, made with the help of the sophisticated time series econometric models, is one of the key elements of this volume. The analysis empirically tests the random walk hypothesis and focuses on issues like nonlinear dynamics, structural breaks and long memory. It uses new and disaggregated data on recent reforms and changes in the market microstructure. The data on various indices including sectoral indices help in measuring the relative efficiency of the market and understanding how liquidity and market capitalization affect the efficiency of the market.

Download or read book The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-02 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

Download or read book How Does Investor Sentiment Have Impacts on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Growth Enterprise Market in China written by Jinshi Zheng and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation mainly explores the effect of investor sentiment on stock returns and volatility on Growth Enterprise in China using monthly data from Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China from June 2010 to November 2019. Using five explicit and market-related implicit indicators an investor sentiment has been measured and constructed with the help of principal component analysis. The analysis has been done by employing a vector autoregression(VAR) model and impulse response functions (IRFs) generated from a VAR model to examine the relationship between the unanticipated changes in investor sentiment and stock returns and volatility. We also establish EGARCH model to test the validity of previous results and if the asymmetric impact of positive and negative news on market returns volatility. The results show a significant impact of investor sentiment on stock return and volatility. We also document that there is a positive leverage effect between investor sentiment and the volatility of returns. The findings of this paper can help both individual and institutional investors have a better understanding of GEM market and improve their investment returns by incorporating investor sentiment into their asset forecasting model. This paper also provides policymakers guidance on reducing volatility on stock markets from the perspective of investor sentiment. Additionally, this paper has important contributions to behavioral finance and adds to the limited number of studies on investor sentiment and stock return in not only the Chinese market but emerging markets.

Download or read book Asset Management written by Stephen Satchell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-09-20 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a series of contributions on key issues in the decision-making behind the management of financial assets. It provides insight into topics such as quantitative and traditional portfolio construction, performance clustering and incentives in the UK pension fund industry, pension fund governance, indexation, and tracking errors. Markets covered include major European markets, equities, and emerging markets of South-East and Central Asia.

Download or read book Retail Investor Sentiment and Behavior written by Matthias Burghardt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-16 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a unique data set consisting of more than 36.5 million submitted retail investor orders over the course of five years, Matthias Burghardt constructs an innovative retail investor sentiment index. He shows that retail investors’ trading decisions are correlated, that retail investors are contrarians, and that a profitable trading strategy can be based on these aggregated sentiment measures.

Download or read book A Behavioral Approach to Asset Pricing written by Hersh Shefrin and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-05-19 with total page 636 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral finance is the study of how psychology affects financial decision making and financial markets. It is increasingly becoming the common way of understanding investor behavior and stock market activity. Incorporating the latest research and theory, Shefrin offers both a strong theory and efficient empirical tools that address derivatives, fixed income securities, mean-variance efficient portfolios, and the market portfolio. The book provides a series of examples to illustrate the theory. The second edition continues the tradition of the first edition by being the one and only book to focus completely on how behavioral finance principles affect asset pricing, now with its theory deepened and enriched by a plethora of research since the first edition

Download or read book Geopolitical Risk on Stock Returns Evidence from Inter Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.

Download or read book Quantile Regression written by Roger Koenker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-05-05 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantile regression is gradually emerging as a unified statistical methodology for estimating models of conditional quantile functions. By complementing the exclusive focus of classical least squares regression on the conditional mean, quantile regression offers a systematic strategy for examining how covariates influence the location, scale and shape of the entire response distribution. This monograph is the first comprehensive treatment of the subject, encompassing models that are linear and nonlinear, parametric and nonparametric. The author has devoted more than 25 years of research to this topic. The methods in the analysis are illustrated with a variety of applications from economics, biology, ecology and finance. The treatment will find its core audiences in econometrics, statistics, and applied mathematics in addition to the disciplines cited above.

Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.

Download or read book Behavioral Corporate Finance written by Hersh Shefrin and published by College Ie Overruns. This book was released on 2017-04-16 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Support Vector Machines written by Naiyang Deng and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-12-17 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Support Vector Machines: Optimization Based Theory, Algorithms, and Extensions presents an accessible treatment of the two main components of support vector machines (SVMs)-classification problems and regression problems. The book emphasizes the close connection between optimization theory and SVMs since optimization is one of the pillars on which

Download or read book Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Economic Development and Business Culture ICEDBC 2022 written by Yushi Jiang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-05-11 with total page 1906 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access book. With the support of universities and the research of AEIC Academic Exchange Center, The 2nd International Conference on Economic Development and Business Culture (ICEDBC 2022) will be held in Dali from June 24th to 26th. Compared with previous conferences, it will discuss more in-depth economic independent innovation, open cooperation and innovative business culture under the background of the new development stage, new situation and new journey era. There will be a broad exchange environment. Well-known experts, scholars or entrepreneurs in the field will be invited to make keynote reports. Contributing authors are also very welcome to actively participate in the conference and build an academic exchange ceremony.