Download or read book Terrain Adjusted Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A problem involving overestimates of tropical cyclone wind probabilities for locations that are heavily terrain-influenced is described. Previous studies on this topic are reviewed. A method is described to adjust wind probabilities for terrain, and it is applied for the two Navy ports of Cubi Point, RP, and Yokosuka, JA. Probabilities with and without terrain modifications are tested, and the results are analyzed and compared. The study concludes that the resulting lower wind probabilities are a substantial improvement over the unmodified probabilities. (Author).

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. Some examples to illustrate the use of probabilities are discussed. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 an 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which is supported by correlation coefficients. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 and 50 kt winds. (Author).

Download or read book A Verification of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Jaclyn Ashley Shafer and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Statistical Evaluation of the National Hurricane Center s Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecast Product written by Denis Nikolayevich Botambekov and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the Eastern North Pacific EPWINDP written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum wind and errors in the forecast radius of 30 and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 to 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the tropical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results are shown to illustrate good agreement between forecast and probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 to 50 kt winds. (Author).

Download or read book Estimating Return Periods of Extreme Tropical Cyclone Winds Accounting for Effective Surface Roughness at High Resolution written by Robert Walker Whitfield and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the United States, tropical cyclones (TCs) were the leading cause of natural disaster-related fatalities and Consumer Price Index (CPI)-adjusted costs averaged over the years 1980-2017. Accurately assessing TC-induced extreme winds is crucial to proper risk management related to mitigation of these losses. Several studies attempt to calculate return periods (TRP), or the statistically estimated average time between events of a given magnitude, for extreme TC winds at point locations or along coastlines. This study seeks to further previous work by addressing concerns related to spatial and temporal resolutions, in addition to the consideration of TC winds as a function of surface roughness and fetch over land. We begin by analyzing HURDAT BestTrack Extended (1988-2017) data (EBTRK) at 0.25-degree (~27 km) resolution, assigning a maximum observed windspeed value per grid cell per year, to which several extreme value distributions (EVDs) are fit to the probability distribution function (PDF). The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is found to have the best fit to the EBTRK data, where fitting parameters are calculated based on these observations using the method of moments. We find the EBTRK dataset, while more continuous and higher resolution than previous assessments, lacks sufficient observations for proper fit to an EVD and it appears to not fully consider the effect of surface roughness on TC wind speed, likely because of great limitations on spatial information in the data set. To address these issues, we use 59,000 years of modeled TC winds produced by the Florida Public Loss Hurricane Model (FPLHM), which considers the effects of effective surface roughness on upstream winds on a fine scale (~90m), output at locations of interest roughly every kilometer. The study domain is narrowed down to the Tampa/Clearwater area of Florida for its various terrain and coastline features, from which six locations of varying terrain/coastline proximity are chosen. We reimplement the EVD fitting procedure to the FPLHM data, again finding the GPD to be the best fit, and extrapolating out TRP values for the most extreme TC winds at each location. Empirically calculated TRP values are also plotted for the entire domain to gain a sense of those associated patterns. We find TRP and subsequent expected winds can vary dramatically depending on effective surface roughness over distances at least as short as ~1 km (the finest resolution of the saved modeled data), while distance inland independent of TC weakening plays a lesser of a role after the first few kilometers. The results indicate a need for more accurate future TRP analyses that are both at a fine scale and incorporate effective surface roughness, which also points to the weakness in using historical data in areas with recent changes in land use.

Download or read book A Statistical Model for the Prediction of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Motion WPCLPR written by Xu Yiming and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Probability of Tropical Cyclone Induced Winds at Cape Kennedy written by John Raymond Hope and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A statistical technique is developed for estimating the climatological probability that an existing tropical cyclone will produce sustained 35-knot winds at Cape Kennedy. Probabilities are computed for specific times and for various time intervals extending to seven days. The technique is developed initially considering only the storm's location, then expanded to take into account its antecedent path. Two classes of storms are processed separately: (1) Those originating over the Atlantic Ocean or eastern Caribbean Sea, and (2) those originating over the western Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico. The technique can be adapted for other coastal locations which may be affected by tropical cyclones.

Download or read book Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones written by Johnny C. L. Chan and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. I. Theory of tropical cyclones. ch. 1. Tropical cyclone structure and dynamics / Jeffrey D. Kepert. ch. 2. Tropical cyclone formation / Kevin J. Tory and William M. Frank. ch. 3. Air-sea interactions in tropical cyclones / Lynn K. Shay. ch. 4. Movement of tropical cyclones / Johnny C.L. Chan. ch. 5. The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones : structural characteristics, downstream impacts, and forecast challenges / Patrick A. Harr -- pt. II. Observations of tropical cyclones. ch. 6. Observing and analyzing the near-surface wind field in tropical cyclones / Mark D. Powell. ch. 7. Satellite observations of tropical cyclones / Christopher Velden and Jeffrey Hawkins. ch. 8. Aircraft observations of tropical cyclones / Sim D. Aberson [und weitere] -- pt. III. Climate variations of tropical cyclone activity. ch. 9. Tropical cyclones and climate change : a review / Thomas Knutson, Chris Landsea and Kerry Emanuel -- pt. IV. Forecasting of tropical cyclones. ch. 10. Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones / Julian Heming and Jim Goerss. ch. 11. The influence of natural climate variability on tropical cyclones, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity / Suzana J. Camargo [und weitere] -- pt. V. Hydrological aspects of tropical cyclones. ch. 12. Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas / Shishir K. Dube [und weitere] -- pt. VI. Societal impacts of tropical cyclones. ch. 13. Disaster mitigation and societal impacts / David King, Jim Davidson and Linda Anderson-Berry

Download or read book Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Estimating the Probability of Operationally Critical Wind Speeds Affecting an Air Base During the Passage of a Tropical Cyclone written by Herbert S. Appleman and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ANCE THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTEA forecast of a tr pical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base requir certain decisions to be made, such as whether t tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, removn. issiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to bal-ANCE THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTEA forecast of a tr pical cyclone to pass in the vicinity of a base requir certain decisions to be made, such as whether t tie down or evacuate aircraft, delay construction projects, remove missiles from firing pads, etc. A decision to take such protective action is based primarily on the expectancy of occurrence of wind speeds above a critical value considered hazardous to that particular installation. In order to bal-ANCE THE COST OF PROTECTION AGAINST THE DAMAGE INCURRED BY AN UNPROTECTED BASE, THE COMMANDER MUST KNOW THE PROBABILITY OF HIS INSTALLATION BEING STRUCK BY ABOVE-CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM. In June 1958, Air Weather Service published a technical report (AD 218 559) which outlined a method for computing the total probability of above-critical wind speeds affecting an airbase at some time during the passage of a hurricane or typhoon. A technique was developed for obtaining the instantaneous probability of strong winds affecting a base at each hour during the storm's passage, and a somewhat different approach was used to obtain the hour-by-hour instantaneous probability. Since an estimate of both the total and hourly probabthe en ire problem. (Author).

Download or read book Wind Probabilities and Tropical Cyclone Readiness Conditions written by Jerry Dean Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wind probabilities are examined in relation to the establishment of tropical cyclone readiness conditions at Apra Harbor, Guam, and at Kadena AFB, Okinawa, Japan. By fitting a conceptual model to the data, decision zones are delineated for setting each condition. While these results apply strictly to the two stations alone, the concepts are general and can be made to apply to other bases and other problems. (Author).

Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Strike and Wind Probability Applications written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1982* with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Building to Resist the Effect of Wind written by Emil Simiu and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Forecasting for the North Indian Ocean WINDP written by Jerry D. Jarrell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The development of a model to estimate 30 kt and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts in the North Indian Ocean is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 kt and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the topical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The present model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. (Author).