Download or read book Temporal Price Relationships in Cash Forward and Futures Markets for White Wheat written by Santisuk Sanguanruang and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forward pricing is a marketing tool available to Pacific Northwest white wheat growers for reducing price risk. The cash forward contract is the traditional pricing mechanism used for this purpose. In September 1984, another option for forward pricing was made available through the introduction of a new futures market for white wheat traded at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. This research analyzes price behavior in these two forward pricing markets in 1985 from two perspectives. Using the efficient market hypothesis, this study first evaluates the temporal price relationships in each market. Second, the research measures the relationships between the two markets in light of the concept of causality. Prices in an efficient market should reflect all available information. In this research, the weak form test for the efficient market hypothesis, known as the random walk model, assessed pricing efficiency in both markets. The random walk hypothesis holds when successive price changes are independent. Based on the evidence of statistically insignificant autocorrelation coefficients, the futures market was efficient under the random walk hypothesis. There were no systematic patterns in the price movements. In contrast, in all delivery time periods except December, the cash forward market exhibited nonrandomness in price changes. The analysis on the relationship between the two markets was made using Granger's definition of causality. Using ordinary least squares regression, this research evaluated the causal link between the two price series with two parallel tests, the direct Granger's and the Sims'. Strong causality ran from futures prices (FT) to cash forward prices (CF) in the September harvest time delivery period. Some causality from FT to CF lingered into the December and March storage month delivery periods. There were no causal relationships in other delivery periods except a feedback from CF to FT in the March period. Despite low trading activity, futures prices were found to represent an efficient market. Thus, they accurately reflected market signals concerning the supply of, and demand for, white wheat. On the contrary, nonrandomness found in cash forward prices suggests inefficiency in this market. The causality found from FT to CF is consistent with the expectation. Farm level forward pricing activity is greatest for harvest (August/September) and immediate post-harvest delivery months. This causes buyers of cash forward contracts to pursue price risk management. Thus, futures prices were used as references, or hedges, in setting cash forward prices in these delivery time periods. The irregular causality pattern between the two markets implies a changing market environment, possibly caused by differing price determination processes over time. Serial dependence in cash forward prices may be providing misleading signals about the white wheat market. However, the weak form test used here could not estimate the magnitude of the inefficiency.
Download or read book An Analysis of Hedging Soft White Wheat Using the Chicago Wheat Futures Market written by Robert Louis Levy and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1970, the Pacific Northwest (PNW) produced approximately 145,332,000 bushels of wheat (all types) with an average harvest value of over $220,000,000. White wheat comprised about 126,234,000 bushels of that total, about 87 percent. In recent years the financial circumstances, for several reasons, have deteriorated for many farmers and grain handlers in the PNW. The reduced incomes have stimulated renewed exploration for some means of increasing revenues and/or stabilizing net prices received. The effective marketing of wheat in other areas of the U.S. involves the use of wheat futures markets. PNW producers and handlers of White wheat have not generally had this opportunity because the White wheat is not deliverable on existing futures contracts. Consequently, it is desirable to evaluate the feasibility of utilizing existing wheat futures contracts in spite of nondelivery. If the White wheat price patterns move in favorable relation to the price of deliverable wheats, then nondelivery may not preclude effective hedging. A one cent per bushel gain by successful hedging would add about 1.3 million dollars annually to producer income for White wheat in the PNW. Results for a ten year period indicate there are certain hedging strategies which appear to be profitable to PNW White wheat traders. The December wheat futures cortract prcvids long term gross benefits (not considering transaction costs or holding costs) of 5 to 7 cents per bushel on short hedges opened between the first week in March and the third week in March, and closed in the second or third week of May. Short hedge benefits for March futures averaged about 7 to 9 cents per bushel with opening dates between the first and third week of September and closing dates between the third week of January and the first week of March. Corresponding results for short hedges with May futures are 12.5 to 14.5 cents per bushel with opening dates between the last week of July and the last week of September and closing dates between the last week of April and the second week of May; and for the July and September futures, 8.5 to 10.5 cents per bushel with opening dates from the second week of October to the second week of November and closing dates between the second and third weeks of May. The optimum short hedges, all of which fall within the above indicated dates, were profitable nine out of ten years for May futures; eight out of ten years for December, July and September contracts, and seven out of ten years for March contracts. Long hedging strategies were not found to be as frequently profitable--eight out of ten years for July contracts; seven out of ten years for May contracts; six out of ten years for December and March contracts and five out of ten years for September contracts. Optimum long hedges using December futures provided 8.7 to 10.7 cents per bushel with opening dates between the second and third weeks of May and closing dates between the first week of July and the third week of September; for March futures, 10 to 12 cents per bushel with opening dates between the second and third weeks of May and closing dates between the first and third weeks of September; for May futures, 2.5 to 3.5 cents per bushel with opening dates between the second and fourth weeks of June and closing dates between the second week of August and the third week of September; for July futures, 7.5 to 9.5 cents per bushel with opening dates between the second and third weeks of May and closing dates between the first and second weeks of July; and for September contracts, 9. 3 to 11. 3 cents per bushel with opening dates in the second and third weeks of May and closing dates in the second week of September. In several instances, profits or losses were generated in both the cash and futures transactions, indicating that while several of the optimum strategies did generate overall profitable results, the hedge would really need to be considered a "speculative hedge" rather than a "traditional hedge" wherein cash and futures losses and gains are generally offsetting to at least some extent.
Download or read book Future Trading and the Cash grain Markets written by George Wright Hoffman and published by . This book was released on 1932 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Relationship Between Daily Price Range and Net Price Change Opening to Close of the Dominant Wheat Future and the Daily Volume of Trading in Wheat Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade written by United States. Grain Futures Administration and published by . This book was released on 1935 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book How Government Policies Affect the Relationship between Polish and World Wheat prices written by Panayotis N. Varangis and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 1997 Government intervention is the main reason for the low correlation between cash prices for Polish wheat and wheat futures prices in Chicago and London. Polish government policies reduce incentives for Poland's private sector to use existing wheat futures contracts in foreign exchanges to hedge against price risks and impede the development of a Polish wheat futures exchange. Cash prices for wheat in Poland are not closely related to futures prices in Chicago and London, for several reasons: differences in seasonality, fluctuations in exchange rate, poor dissemination of information in Poland, and most important the Polish government's intervention in wheat markets. Polish wheat prices generally move to expected intervention prices (set by ARR, the agency for agricultural markets) and then stay there until the next intervention level becomes known. The exception was in 1994/95, when sharply higher world prices raised prices in Poland. A wheat futures exchange in Poland could give the private sector a tool for hedging against price risk, improving efficiency and price discovery in Poland. It would be difficult to develop, however, under present interventionist policies. This situation could be improved by reducing the protection of prices and by making any intervention rules-based (reducing uncertainty about policies). Should intervention be reduced or rationalized, the next question is whether Poland needs its own wheat futures exchange or whether Poland's private sector can use futures exchanges in London and Chicago to hedge against risk. The answer to that question is not an easy one. This paper - a product of the Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to analyze commodity pricing policies.
Download or read book Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences written by Wade H. Shafer and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences was first conceived, published, and disseminated by the Center for Information and Numerical Data Analysis and Synthesis (CINDAS) * at Purdue University in 1 957, starting its coverage of theses with the academic year 1955. Beginning with Volume 13, the printing and dissemination phases of the activity were transferred to University Microfilms/Xerox of Ann Arbor, Michigan, with the thought that such an arrangement would be more beneficial to the academic and general scientific and technical community. After five years of this joint undertaking we had concluded that it was in the interest of all con cerned if the printing and distribution of the volumes were handled by an interna tional publishing house to assure improved service and broader dissemination. Hence, starting with Volume 18, Masters Theses in the Pure and Applied Sciences has been disseminated on a worldwide basis by Plenum Publishing Cor poration of New York, and in the same year the coverage was broadened to include Canadian universities. All back issues can also be ordered from Plenum. We have reported in Volume 32 (thesis year 1987) a total of 12,483 theses titles from 22 Canadian and 176 United States universities. We are sure that this broader base for these titles reported will greatly enhance the value of this important annual reference work. While Volume 32 reports theses submitted in 1987, on occasion, certain univer sities do report theses submitted in previous years but not reported at the time.
Download or read book An Economic Analysis of Changes in Price Relationships Between Three Wheat Futures Markets written by Jay Steven Strohmaier and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Intertemporal Basis Behavior on the Chicago Wheat Futures Market written by Terence Charles Sheales and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Analyzing Changing Price Relationships Between Wheat Futures Markets written by Jay S. Strohmaier and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Pacific Northwest Wheat Market and Futures Trading written by John Nairn and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Hedging Practices and Future Contracts in Marketing High Protein Spring Wheat written by William J. Ewasiuk and published by . This book was released on 1962 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Price Relationships Between South Dakota Wheat Markets Destination and Futures Markets written by Tyler J. Stowater and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Grain Supplies and Demand written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. Subcommittee on Agricultural Production, Marketing, and Stabilization of Prices and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Grain Supplies and Demand written by United States. Congress. Senate. Agriculture and Forestry Committee and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book WREP written by and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Economics of Food Price Volatility written by Jean-Paul Chavas and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2014-10-14 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.
Download or read book The Northwestern Miller written by and published by . This book was released on 1897 with total page 1026 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
