Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
Download or read book Taming an Uncertain Future written by Liam P.D. Stockdale and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2015-12-16 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A popular cliché in contemporary public discourse holds that we live in a time of increasing uncertainty; that the next catastrophe is perpetually imminent and yet increasingly beyond our capacity to foresee. The future, in short, is becoming much more difficult to control. One consequence of this increasingly widespread understanding of the future is that societies have turned to anticipatory governance strategies based on such concepts as risk management, the precautionary principle, and pre-emption to manage human affairs. This book takes an in-depth look at this trend by using the example of the ‘pre-emptive security’ strategies deployed in the post-9/11 War on Terror to develop a critical understanding of how the proliferation of such anticipatory governance strategies affects the way political power is organized and exercised. The book also makes a wider case for taking issues of time and the future more seriously in the study of contemporary global politics in particular and the social world more generally.
Download or read book An Introduction to Self adaptive Systems written by Danny Weyns and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-10-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A concise and practical introduction to the foundations and engineering principles of self-adaptation Though it has recently gained significant momentum, the topic of self-adaptation remains largely under-addressed in academic and technical literature. This book changes that. Using a systematic and holistic approach, An Introduction to Self-adaptive Systems: A Contemporary Software Engineering Perspective provides readers with an accessible set of basic principles, engineering foundations, and applications of self-adaptation in software-intensive systems. It places self-adaptation in the context of techniques like uncertainty management, feedback control, online reasoning, and machine learning while acknowledging the growing consensus in the software engineering community that self-adaptation will be a crucial enabling feature in tackling the challenges of new, emerging, and future systems. The author combines cutting-edge technical research with basic principles and real-world insights to create a practical and strategically effective guide to self-adaptation. He includes features such as: An analysis of the foundational engineering principles and applications of self-adaptation in different domains, including the Internet-of-Things, cloud computing, and cyber-physical systems End-of-chapter exercises at four different levels of complexity and difficulty An accompanying author-hosted website with slides, selected exercises and solutions, models, and code Perfect for researchers, students, teachers, industry leaders, and practitioners in fields that directly or peripherally involve software engineering, as well as those in academia involved in a class on self-adaptivity, this book belongs on the shelves of anyone with an interest in the future of software and its engineering.
Download or read book Care Uncertainty and Intergenerational Ethics written by C. Groves and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-02 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our capacity to reshape the future has never been more powerful. Yet our ability to foresee the consequences of what we do has not kept pace. Is the idea that we have responsibilities to future generations therefore meaningful? This book argues that it is, with the aid of a unique reading of the care ethics tradition.
Download or read book Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making written by Richard J. Arend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024-01-03 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI. It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about ‘unknowns’ while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as ‘knowable’ (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat ‘unknowables’ as ‘shapeable’ or ‘discoverable’. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, by offering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.
Download or read book Large Scale Complex IT Systems Development Operation and Management written by Radu Calinescu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-10-12 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the thoroughly refereed and revised post-workshop proceedings of the 17th Monterey Workshop, held in Oxford, UK, in March 2012. The workshop explored the challenges associated with the Development, Operation and Management of Large-Scale complex IT Systems. The 21 revised full papers presented were significantly extended and improved by the insights gained from the productive and lively discussions at the workshop, and the feedback from the post-workshop peer reviews.
Download or read book Sampling in Judgment and Decision Making written by Klaus Fiedler and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-31 with total page 573 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An exploration of how statistical sampling principles impose theoretical constraints and enable novel insights on judgments and decisions.
Download or read book Risk and the War on Terror written by Louise Amoore and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-06-11 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pt. 1. Risk, precaution, governance -- pt. 2. Crime, deviance, exception -- pt. 3. Biopolitics, biometrics, borders -- pt. 4. Risks, tactics, resistances.
Download or read book Youth and the Politics of the Present written by Enzo Colombo and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-05-15 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Youth and the Politics of the Present presents a range of topical sociological investigations into various aspects of the everyday practices of young adults in different European contexts. Indeed, this volume provides an original and provocative investigation of various current central issues surrounding the effects of globalization and the directions in which Western societies are steering their future. Containing a wide range of empirical and comparative examples from across Europe, this title highlights how young adults are trying to implement new forms of understanding, interpretation and action to cope with unprecedented situations; developing new forms of relationships, identifications and belonging while they experience new and unprecedented forms of inclusion and exclusion. Grounding this exploration is the suggestion that careful observations of the everyday practices of young adults can be an excellent vantage point to grasp how and in what direction the future of contemporary Western societies is heading. Offering an original and provocative investigation, Youth and the Politics of the Present will appeal to students and researchers interested in fields such as Youth Studies, Globalization Studies, Migration Studies, Gender Studies and Social Policy.
Download or read book Systems Engineering for the Digital Age written by Dinesh Verma and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-10-24 with total page 901 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Systems Engineering for the Digital Age Comprehensive resource presenting methods, processes, and tools relating to the digital and model-based transformation from both technical and management views Systems Engineering for the Digital Age: Practitioner Perspectives covers methods and tools that are made possible by the latest developments in computational modeling, descriptive modeling languages, semantic web technologies, and describes how they can be integrated into existing systems engineering practice, how best to manage their use, and how to help train and educate systems engineers of today and the future. This book explains how digital models can be leveraged for enhancing engineering trades, systems risk and maturity, and the design of safe, secure, and resilient systems, providing an update on the methods, processes, and tools to synthesize, analyze, and make decisions in management, mission engineering, and system of systems. Composed of nine chapters, the book covers digital and model-based methods, digital engineering, agile systems engineering, improving system risk, and more, representing the latest insights from research in topics related to systems engineering for complicated and complex systems and system-of-systems. Based on validated research conducted via the Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC), this book provides the reader a set of pragmatic concepts, methods, models, methodologies, and tools to aid the development of digital engineering capability within their organization. Systems Engineering for the Digital Age: Practitioner Perspectives includes information on: Fundamentals of digital engineering, graphical concept of operations, and mission and systems engineering methods Transforming systems engineering through integrating M&S and digital thread, and interactive model centric systems engineering The OODA loop of value creation, digital engineering measures, and model and data verification and validation Digital engineering testbed, transformation, and implications on decision making processes, and architecting tradespace analysis in a digital engineering environment Expedited systems engineering for rapid capability and learning, and agile systems engineering framework Based on results and insights from a research center and providing highly comprehensive coverage of the subject, Systems Engineering for the Digital Age: Practitioner Perspectives is written specifically for practicing engineers, program managers, and enterprise leadership, along with graduate students in related programs of study.
Download or read book Professional Service Firms and Politics in a Global Era written by Chris Hurl and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-31 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores the influence of professional service firms on public policy-making from a global perspective. Drawing on cases studies from around the world, researchers from different disciplines—including sociology, political science, geography, anthropology, history, and management studies—examine how professional service firms have generated power in the policy-making process. The chapters further investigate the structure and organization of these firms and their relationship with public agencies. They discuss the impact of strategies, techniques and models promoted by these firms on political decision-making. And they analyze how these firms have contributed to the formation of global policy-pipelines, facilitating the quick diffusion of policy ideas across time and space. Exposing how professional advisors can undermine democratic decision-making, the chapters in this book explore the potential for resistance and regulation of public-private relationships.
Download or read book Big Data Management and Processing written by Kuan-Ching Li and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-05-19 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Foreword: "Big Data Management and Processing is [a] state-of-the-art book that deals with a wide range of topical themes in the field of Big Data. The book, which probes many issues related to this exciting and rapidly growing field, covers processing, management, analytics, and applications... [It] is a very valuable addition to the literature. It will serve as a source of up-to-date research in this continuously developing area. The book also provides an opportunity for researchers to explore the use of advanced computing technologies and their impact on enhancing our capabilities to conduct more sophisticated studies." ---Sartaj Sahni, University of Florida, USA "Big Data Management and Processing covers the latest Big Data research results in processing, analytics, management and applications. Both fundamental insights and representative applications are provided. This book is a timely and valuable resource for students, researchers and seasoned practitioners in Big Data fields. --Hai Jin, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China Big Data Management and Processing explores a range of big data related issues and their impact on the design of new computing systems. The twenty-one chapters were carefully selected and feature contributions from several outstanding researchers. The book endeavors to strike a balance between theoretical and practical coverage of innovative problem solving techniques for a range of platforms. It serves as a repository of paradigms, technologies, and applications that target different facets of big data computing systems. The first part of the book explores energy and resource management issues, as well as legal compliance and quality management for Big Data. It covers In-Memory computing and In-Memory data grids, as well as co-scheduling for high performance computing applications. The second part of the book includes comprehensive coverage of Hadoop and Spark, along with security, privacy, and trust challenges and solutions. The latter part of the book covers mining and clustering in Big Data, and includes applications in genomics, hospital big data processing, and vehicular cloud computing. The book also analyzes funding for Big Data projects.
Download or read book Thrive written by Meridith Elliott Powell, MBA, CSP and published by Sound Wisdom. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thrive is the roadmap of how to grow your business and drive sales in highly shifting, constantly changing economic times. It is the story of those leaders and organizations that have seen consistent growth through several economic crises-companies that were founded in the late 1700’s to early 1900’s and they are still in business thriving today. In this book we share their stories, their struggles, and tell you exactly how they have not only overcome adversity, but thrived through it. Praise for the Book: “We live in a time when uncertainty is the order of the day. THRIVE is a must-read for all who strive to grow intellectually and to succeed through the opportunities an uncertain world offers.” —Ken Langone, Founder, Home Depot, American Billionaire and Philanthropist “Talk about the right book for the right time! What I liked most about THRIVE are the case studies of real companies and real people who weathered the storms and emerged more successful than before. THRIVE is both practical and inspirational. I’ve ordered copies for my entire team.” —Bill Cates, CSP, CPAE, Founder, The Cates Academy for Relationship Marketing, Author of Radical Relevance “In THRIVE, Meridith weaves in 250 years of business history to show how resilient businesses and people find opportunities in every situation. This is a must-read to gain ideas and perspective in a sea of change.” —Mary C. Kelly, PhD, CEO, Productive Leaders, Author of The Five Minute Leadership Guide “You do not merely read this book; you read, you think, you develop next steps. Meridith does a masterful job of detailing companies doing it right and then goes further by adding her insights to create a playbook of what you need to do. Perfect book for the time we’re in right now!” —Mark Hunter, CSP, “The Sales Hunter”, Author of A Mind For Sales “The only certainty in business is there will be times of great uncertainty. It’s how you react when your world—or the world—doesn’t go as planned that determines your future. Meridith studies how companies have thrived in their uncertain times to become global market leaders and shares the proven success strategies that you can implement in your business to do the same. If there was ever a time where our world needed this book, it’s now. Read it. Study it. And thrive!” —Sam Richter, CSP, CPAE, Hall of Fame Speaker, Bestselling Author, and Technology Entrepreneur
Download or read book Principles of Knowledge Representation and Reasoning written by Jon Doyle and published by Morgan Kaufmann. This book was released on 1994 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The proceedings of KR '94 comprise 55 papers on topics including deduction an search, description logics, theories of knowledge and belief, nonmonotonic reasoning and belief revision, action and time, planning and decision-making and reasoning about the physical world, and the relations between KR
Download or read book Stolen Cars written by Gabriel Feltran and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-01-18 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stolen Cars is an innovative ethnography of urban inequalities and violence in São Paulo, Brazil. Organized around the journeys of five stolen cars, each chapter discusses a specific theme, such as the distinctions between violent robbery and the more commercial non-violent theft or the role of national borders interconnecting illegal and legal economies Provides an original theoretical framework for a rarely studied urban and transnational supply chain Draws from empirical data and a combination of different methodologies to demonstrate mechanisms of urban inequalities and violence reproduction Highlights how everyday life is entangled with structural urban transformations Uses an ethnographic narrative to show how urban development produce various forms of illegality and violent crime
Download or read book The Imperative of Health written by Deborah Lupton and published by SAGE. This book was released on 1995-06-15 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this reappraisal of public health and health promotion in contemporary societies, Deborah Lupton explores public health and health promotion using contemporary sociocultural and political theory, particularly that building on Foucault′s writings on subjectivity, embodiment and power relations. The author examines the implications of the new social theories for the study of health promotion and health communication to analyze the symbolic nature of public health practices, and explores their underlying meanings and assumptions.
