Download or read book Tail Risk in the Cross Section of Alternative Risk Premium Strategies written by Nick Baltas and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this article the authors attempt to get a better understanding of the cross-section of alternative risk premia using a multi-asset version of the downside risk CAPM. In line with the empirical literature, they find that the cross-section of realized returns is much better explained when using the downside risk CAPM, rather than relying on the traditional CAPM. However, in contrast to the empirical literature, the authors cannot always recover the required signs in their cross-sectional regressions. In particular, we find that taking on downside risk is not always systematically rewarded. This might either be due to the limited availability of time series that essentially overweight the exceptional events of 2008 or a direct result of creating back-tests with attractive in-sample features that are impossible to be repeated out-of-sample.
Download or read book Tail Risk and the Cross Section of Mutual Fund Expected Returns written by Nikolaos Karagiannis and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We test for the presence of a tail risk premium in the cross-section of mutual fund returns and find that the top tail risk quintile of funds outperforms the bottom by 4.4% per annum. This premium is not simply a reward for market risk, nor do commonly used risk factors offer an adequate explanation. Our findings hold across double-sorted portfolios formed on tail risk and a number of fund characteristics. We also find that funds susceptible to tail risk tend to be small, young, have high management fees, and have managers who do not risk their own capital.
Download or read book Trend Following CTAs Vs Alternative Risk Premia ARP Products written by Artur Sepp and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We introduce a regime-conditional regression model to measure the risk profile of systematic investment strategies. We apply this model to classify systematic strategies into defensive and risk-seeking strategies with either positive or negative risk-premia alpha. Using the performance of the SG Trend Index, we show that trend-following CTAs belong to an exemplary class of defensive active strategies with insignificant risk-premia alpha. We show that our model displays a strong empirical evidence for a cross-section of hedge fund and alternative risk-premia indices.Finally, we introduce the concept of a smart diversification for traditional and alternatives portfolios and apply trend-following CTAs to illustrate this concept. We show that the diversification benefits of trend-following CTAs arise from their “crisis” beta, and not crisis “alpha”
Download or read book Volatility of Volatility and Tail Risk Premiums written by Yang-ho Park and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Nonparametric Tail Risk Stock Returns and the Macroeconomy written by Caio Almeida and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predicting Equity Risk Premium Using the Smooth Cross Sectional Tail Risk written by José Afonso Faias and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide a new monthly cross-sectional measure of stock market tail risk, defined as the average of the daily cross-sectional tail risk, rather than the tail risk of the pooled daily returns within a month. The former better captures monthly tail risk rather than merely the tail risk on specific days within a month. Using simulations, we attest that this is due to the low value of daily correlations. We show that this difference is important in generating strong in- and out-of-sample predictability and performs better than the historical risk premium and other commonly used predictors for short- and long-term horizons. This strong predictability improves investor performance in a mean-variance setting.
Download or read book Tail Risk and Asset Prices written by Bryan Kelly and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new measure of time-varying tail risk that is directly estimable from the cross section of returns. We exploit firm-level price crashes every month to identify common fluctuations in tail risk across stocks. Our tail measure is significantly correlated with tail risk measures extracted from S&P 500 index options, but is available for a longer sample since it is calculated from equity data. We show that tail risk has strong predictive power for aggregate market returns: A one standard deviation increase in tail risk forecasts an increase in excess market returns of 4.5% over the following year. Cross-sectionally, stocks with high loadings on past tail risk earn an annual three-factor alpha 5.4% higher than stocks with low tail risk loadings. These findings are consistent with asset pricing theories that relate equity risk premia to rare disasters or other forms of tail risk.
Download or read book TAIL RISK HEDGING Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets written by Vineer Bhansali and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2013-12-27 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "TAIL RISKS" originate from the failure of mean reversion and the idealized bell curve of asset returns, which assumes that highly probable outcomes occur near the center of the curve and that unlikely occurrences, good and bad, happen rarely, if at all, at either "tail" of the curve. Ever since the global financial crisis, protecting investments against these severe tail events has become a priority for investors and money managers, but it is something Vineer Bhansali and his team at PIMCO have been doing for over a decade. In one of the first comprehensive and rigorous books ever written on tail risk hedging, he lays out a systematic approach to protecting portfolios from, and potentially benefiting from, rare yet severe market outcomes. Tail Risk Hedging is built on the author's practical experience applying macroeconomic forecasting and quantitative modeling techniques across asset markets. Using empirical data and charts, he explains the consequences of diversification failure in tail events and how to manage portfolios when this happens. He provides an easy-to-use, yet rigorous framework for protecting investment portfolios against tail risk and using tail hedging to play offense. Tail Risk Hedging explores how to: Generate profits from volatility and illiquidity during tail-risk events in equity and credit markets Buy attractively priced tail hedges that add value to a portfolio and quantify basis risk Interpret the psychology of investors in option pricing and portfolio construction Customize explicit hedges for retirement investments Hedge risk factors such as duration risk and inflation risk Managing tail risk is today's most significant development in risk management, and this thorough guide helps you access every aspect of it. With the time-tested and mathematically rigorous strategies described here, including pieces of computer code, you get access to insights to help mitigate portfolio losses in significant downturns, create explosive liquidity while unhedged participants are forced to sell, and create more aggressive yet tail-risk-focused portfolios. The book also gives you a unique, higher level view of how tail risk is related to investing in alternatives, and of derivatives such as zerocost collars and variance swaps. Volatility and tail risks are here to stay, and so should your clients' wealth when you use Tail Risk Hedging for managing portfolios. PRAISE FOR TAIL RISK HEDGING: "Managing, mitigating, and even exploiting the risk of bad times are the most important concerns in investments. Bhansali puts tail risk hedging and tail risk management under a microscope--pricing, implementation, and showing how we can fine-tune our risk exposures, which are all crucial ways in how we can better weather our bad times." -- ANDREW ANG, Ann F. Kaplan Professor of Business at Columbia University "This book is critical and accessible reading for fiduciaries, financial consultants and investors interested in both theoretical foundations and practical considerations for how to frame hedging downside risk in portfolios. It is a tremendous resource for anyone involved in asset allocation today." -- CHRISTOPHER C. GECZY, Ph.D., Academic Director, Wharton Wealth Management Initiative and Adj. Associate Professor of Finance, The Wharton School "Bhansali's book demonstrates how tail risk hedging can work, be concretely implemented, and lead to higher returns so that it is possible to have your cake and eat it too! A must read for the savvy investor." -- DIDIER SORNETTE, Professor on the Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks, ETH Zurich
Download or read book Introduction to Risk Parity and Budgeting written by Thierry Roncalli and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-04-19 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although portfolio management didn't change much during the 40 years after the seminal works of Markowitz and Sharpe, the development of risk budgeting techniques marked an important milestone in the deepening of the relationship between risk and asset management. Risk parity then became a popular financial model of investment after the global fina
Download or read book Factor Investing written by Emmanuel Jurczenko and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2017-10-17 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edited volume consists of a collection of original articles written by leading industry experts in the area of factor investing.The chapters introduce readers to some of the latest research developments in the area of equity and alternative investment strategies.Each chapter deals with new methods for constructing and harvesting traditional and alternative risk premia, building strategic and tactical multifactor portfolios, and assessing related systematic investment performances. This volume will be of help to portfolio managers, asset owners and consultants, as well as academics and students who want to improve their knowledge and understanding of systematic risk factor investing. A practical scope An extensive coverage and up-to-date researcch contributions Covers the topic of factor investing strategies which are increasingly popular amongst practitioners
Download or read book Risk Premia written by Yves Lemperiere and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We present extensive evidence that "Risk Premium" is strongly correlated with tail-risk skewness, but very little with volatility. We introduce a new, intuitive definition of skewness, and elicit a linear relationship between the Sharpe ratio of various risk premium strategies (Equity, Fama-French, FX Carry, short vol, bonds, credit) and their negative skewness. We find a clear exception to this rule: Trend Following (and perhaps the Fama-French "High minus Low"), that has positive skewness and positive excess return, suggesting that some strategies are not risk premia, but genuine market anomalies. Based on our results, we propose an objective criterion to assess the quality of a risk premium portfolio.
Download or read book Characterizing Risk Premia The Role of Downside Risk and Growth Uncertainty written by Daniele Lombardo and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this work, a cross-section of risk premia across different asset classes is studied in terms of asymmetric exposures to standard risk factors and state variables that predict future economic growth. Downside risk models perform well on the cross-section of stock portfolios, but have limited applicability across different asset classes. A model featuring asymmetric exposure to market drawdowns and recoveries performs well across portfolios, and exposures to term spread and earnings/price ratio reveal that risk premia are more related to economic fundamentals during market recoveries. Optionality in risk premia is also important in explaining returns of portfolios, and negative exposure to large potential gains seems more important than downside protection across portfolios of futures. This evidence is mild using conditional market variance swaps, but becomes clearer with tail risk factors from the cross-section of futures.
Download or read book Investing Amid Low Expected Returns written by Antti Ilmanen and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elevate your game in the face of challenging market conditions with this eye-opening guide to portfolio management Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices. In this book, readers will also find: The common investor responses so far to the low expected return challenge Extensive empirical evidence on the critical ingredients of an effective portfolio: major asset class premia, illiquidity premia, style premia, and alpha Discussions of the pros and cons of illiquid investments, factor investing, ESG investing, risk mitigation strategies, and market timing Coverage of the whole top-down investment process – throughout the book endorsing humility in tactical forecasting and boldness in diversification Ideal for institutional and active individual investors, Investing Amid Low Expected Returns is a timeless resource that enables investing with serenity even in harsher financial conditions.
Download or read book Multiscale Stochastic Volatility for Equity Interest Rate and Credit Derivatives written by Jean-Pierre Fouque and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-09-29 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building upon the ideas introduced in their previous book, Derivatives in Financial Markets with Stochastic Volatility, the authors study the pricing and hedging of financial derivatives under stochastic volatility in equity, interest-rate, and credit markets. They present and analyze multiscale stochastic volatility models and asymptotic approximations. These can be used in equity markets, for instance, to link the prices of path-dependent exotic instruments to market implied volatilities. The methods are also used for interest rate and credit derivatives. Other applications considered include variance-reduction techniques, portfolio optimization, forward-looking estimation of CAPM 'beta', and the Heston model and generalizations of it. 'Off-the-shelf' formulas and calibration tools are provided to ease the transition for practitioners who adopt this new method. The attention to detail and explicit presentation make this also an excellent text for a graduate course in financial and applied mathematics.
Download or read book Alternative Investments A Primer for Investment Professionals written by Donald R. Chambers and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2018 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alternative Investments: A Primer for Investment Professionals provides an overview of alternative investments for institutional asset allocators and other overseers of portfolios containing both traditional and alternative assets. It is designed for those with substantial experience regarding traditional investments in stocks and bonds but limited familiarity regarding alternative assets, alternative strategies, and alternative portfolio management. The primer categorizes alternative assets into four groups: hedge funds, real assets, private equity, and structured products/derivatives. Real assets include vacant land, farmland, timber, infrastructure, intellectual property, commodities, and private real estate. For each group, the primer provides essential information about the characteristics, challenges, and purposes of these institutional-quality alternative assets in the context of a well-diversified institutional portfolio. Other topics addressed by this primer include tail risk, due diligence of the investment process and operations, measurement and management of risks and returns, setting return expectations, and portfolio construction. The primer concludes with a chapter on the case for investing in alternatives.
Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Turan G. Bali and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.
Download or read book Nonparametric Option Implied Tail Risk and Market Returns written by Conall O'Sullivan and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a non-parametric method based on a model-free formula to evaluate the tails of a risk-neutral distribution using the full cross-section of option prices at a fixed horizon. The method leads to the joint estimation of risk-neutral tail probabilities and tail expectations beyond the minimum and maximum strike prices. We confirm the accuracy of the risk-neutral tail measures using simulated data. We extract time series of left and right option implied tail risk measures from S&P 500 index options. We find the ratio of risk-neutral left tail conditional expectation to a physical measure of tail risk significantly predicts the equity risk premium at longer return horizons of six months to twelve months with a significant improvement in ex- planatory power when compared to using the physical tail risk measure alone. We also find that both the risk-neutral left and right tail conditional expectations significantly predict the one-month ahead variance risk premium.
