Download or read book Tail based Co movement Measures Using the Expected Shortfall written by Jinjing Liu and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Assets tend to fall together when the market declines. This thesis focuses on using the expected shortfall (ES) to improve the characterization of the co-movement between assets when returns are low. As a measure of the average loss under extreme circumstances, the ES is used widely in risk management; however, there is little literature applying the ES to characterize the relationship between assets. In Chapter 2, I develop a correlation measure based on the ES to estimate the dependence between assets conditional on different quantiles of returns, and propose a series of statistics to measure and test the degree that correlation increases when returns are low. The test statistics suggest that the traditional linear correlation significantly underestimates the dependence between the US and the other G7 countries when returns are low. In Chapter 3, I develop a downside beta, again based on the ES, to estimate the covariation between asset returns and market returns when the market declines. This downside beta substantially improves the prediction of expected returns of stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. Chapter 4 adopts the downside beta based on the ES to interpret the abnormally high returns observed at the beginning of the year using Chinese data. Instead of a January premium, the Chinese stock market exhibits a February premium. This chapter shows that the February premium is stronger for small-cap stocks, illiquid stocks, and stocks with high downside risk and low price." --

Download or read book Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives written by Ms.Sheri M. Markose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-30 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial network analysis is used to provide firm level bottom-up holistic visualizations of interconnections of financial obligations in global OTC derivatives markets. This helps to identify Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries (SIFIs), analyse the nature of contagion propagation, and also monitor and design ways of increasing robustness in the network. Based on 2009 FDIC and individually collected firm level data covering gross notional, gross positive (negative) fair value and the netted derivatives assets and liabilities for 202 financial firms which includes 20 SIFIs, the bilateral flows are empirically calibrated to reflect data-based constraints. This produces a tiered network with a distinct highly clustered central core of 12 SIFIs that account for 78 percent of all bilateral exposures and a large number of financial intermediaries (FIs) on the periphery. The topology of the network results in the “Too- Interconnected-To-Fail” (TITF) phenomenon in that the failure of any member of the central tier will bring down other members with the contagion coming to an abrupt end when the ‘super-spreaders’ have demised. As these SIFIs account for the bulk of capital in the system, ipso facto no bank among the top tier can be allowed to fail, highlighting the untenable implicit socialized guarantees needed for these markets to operate at their current levels. Systemic risk costs of highly connected SIFIs nodes are not priced into their holding of capital or collateral. An eigenvector centrality based ‘super-spreader’ tax has been designed and tested for its capacity to reduce the potential socialized losses from failure of SIFIs.

Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance written by Marco Corazza and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-17 with total page 465 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interaction between mathematicians, statisticians and econometricians working in actuarial sciences and finance is producing numerous meaningful scientific results. This volume introduces new ideas, in the form of four-page papers, presented at the international conference Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance (MAF), held at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain), 4th-6th April 2018. The book covers a wide variety of subjects in actuarial science and financial fields, all discussed in the context of the cooperation between the three quantitative approaches. The topics include: actuarial models; analysis of high frequency financial data; behavioural finance; carbon and green finance; credit risk methods and models; dynamic optimization in finance; financial econometrics; forecasting of dynamical actuarial and financial phenomena; fund performance evaluation; insurance portfolio risk analysis; interest rate models; longevity risk; machine learning and soft-computing in finance; management in insurance business; models and methods for financial time series analysis, models for financial derivatives; multivariate techniques for financial markets analysis; optimization in insurance; pricing; probability in actuarial sciences, insurance and finance; real world finance; risk management; solvency analysis; sovereign risk; static and dynamic portfolio selection and management; trading systems. This book is a valuable resource for academics, PhD students, practitioners, professionals and researchers, and is also of interest to other readers with quantitative background knowledge.

Download or read book The Handbook of Post Crisis Financial Modelling written by Emmanuel Haven and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2008 financial crisis was a watershed moment which clearly influenced the public's perception of the role of 'finance' in society. Since 2008, a plethora of books and newspaper articles have been produced accusing the academic community of being unable to produce valid models which can accommodate those extreme events. This unique Handbook brings together leading practitioners and academics in the areas of banking, mathematics, and law to present original research on the key issues affecting financial modelling since the 2008 financial crisis. As well as exploring themes of distributional assumptions and efficiency the Handbook also explores how financial modelling can possibly be re-interpreted in light of the 2008 crisis.

Download or read book Backtesting Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and published by Springer Gabler. This book was released on 2015-12-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.

Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Risk Ruin and Survival written by Ricardas Zitikis and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-04-02 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developing techniques for assessing various risks and calculating probabilities of ruin and survival are exciting topics for mathematically-inclined academics. For practicing actuaries and financial engineers, the resulting insights have provided enormous opportunities but also created serious challenges to overcome, thus facilitating closer cooperation between industries and academic institutions. In this book, several renown researchers with extensive interdisciplinary research experiences share their thoughts that, in one way or another, contribute to the betterment of practice and theory of decision making under uncertainty. Behavioral, cultural, mathematical, and statistical aspects of risk assessment and modelling have been explored, and have been often illustrated using real and simulated data. Topics range from financial and insurance risks to security-type risks, from one-dimensional to multi- and even infinite-dimensional risks. The articles in the book were written with a broad audience in mind and should provide enjoyable reading for those with university level degrees and/or those who have studied for accreditation by various actuarial and financial societies.

Download or read book Measuring Systemic Risk Adjusted Liquidity SRL written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.

Download or read book Challenges in Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Mongolia written by Hiroyuki Taguchi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-02-11 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides quantitative evidence on the issues in fiscal and monetary policies in Mongolia and presents necessary policy recommendations for policymakers and academic circles. Mongolia belongs to a natural resource-based, transition economy and thus has faced the risk of the so-called resource curse—including the “Dutch Disease” and immaturity in market-based systems, particularly in financial markets. Consequently, reformations of resource allocation and policy governance in fiscal and monetary fields have been required. So far, however, there have been only a very limited number of quantitative studies in the Mongolian economy among the vast literature of Asian studies. This book applies scientific approaches to address fiscal and monetary issues, such as data-oriented and econometric methods (a structural vector auto-regression model, a spatial econometric model, and panel estimation with fixed effects, among others). In this manner, the book enriches empirical evidence in academic literature and also contributes to evidence-based policymaking. All the authors are young leaders of government officials in the Ministry of Finance, Financial Regulatory Commission, and National Statistics Office in Mongolia, who have been trained in academic research methodologies at Saitama University, Japan, on JICA-JDS scholarships. Thus, academic researchers and policymakers will be prominent members of the target audience for this work.

Download or read book Demystifying Fixed Income Analytics written by Kedar Nath Mukherjee and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2020-07-29 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses important aspects of fixed income securities in emerging economies. Key features • Clarifies all conceptual and analytical aspects of fixed income securities and bonds, and covers important interest rate and credit derivative instruments in a simple and practical way. • Examines topics such as classifications of fixed income instruments; related risk-return measures; yield curve and term structure of interest rates; interest rate derivatives (forwards, futures and swaps), credit derivatives (credit default swaps); and trading strategies and risk management. • Provides step-by-step explanation of fixed income products by including real-life examples, scenarios and cases, especially in the context of emerging markets. • Presents consistent reference of actual market practices to make the chapters practice oriented while maintaining a lucid style complemented by adequate reading inputs and clear learning outcomes. • Includes complete solutions of numericals and cases for all chapters as an eResource on the Routledge website to aid understanding. The book will serve as a ready guide to both professionals from banking and finance industry (fixed income/bond dealers; fund/investment/portfolio managers; investment bankers; financial analysts/consultants; risk management specialists), and those in academics, including students, research scholars, and teachers in the fields of business management, banking, insurance, finance, financial economics, business economics, and risk management.

Download or read book Modeling Dependence in Econometrics written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-18 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In economics, many quantities are related to each other. Such economic relations are often much more complex than relations in science and engineering, where some quantities are independence and the relation between others can be well approximated by linear functions. As a result of this complexity, when we apply traditional statistical techniques - developed for science and engineering - to process economic data, the inadequate treatment of dependence leads to misleading models and erroneous predictions. Some economists even blamed such inadequate treatment of dependence for the 2008 financial crisis. To make economic models more adequate, we need more accurate techniques for describing dependence. Such techniques are currently being developed. This book contains description of state-of-the-art techniques for modeling dependence and economic applications of these techniques. Most of these research developments are centered around the notion of a copula - a general way of describing dependence in probability theory and statistics. To be even more adequate, many papers go beyond traditional copula techniques and take into account, e.g., the dynamical (changing) character of the dependence in economics.

Download or read book Asymmetric Dependence in Finance written by Jamie Alcock and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Avoid downturn vulnerability by managing correlation dependency Asymmetric Dependence in Finance examines the risks and benefits of asset correlation, and provides effective strategies for more profitable portfolio management. Beginning with a thorough explanation of the extent and nature of asymmetric dependence in the financial markets, this book delves into the practical measures fund managers and investors can implement to boost fund performance. From managing asymmetric dependence using Copulas, to mitigating asymmetric dependence risk in real estate, credit and CTA markets, the discussion presents a coherent survey of the state-of-the-art tools available for measuring and managing this difficult but critical issue. Many funds suffered significant losses during recent downturns, despite having a seemingly well-diversified portfolio. Empirical evidence shows that the relation between assets is much richer than previously thought, and correlation between returns is dependent on the state of the market; this book explains this asymmetric dependence and provides authoritative guidance on mitigating the risks. Examine an options-based approach to limiting your portfolio's downside risk Manage asymmetric dependence in larger portfolios and alternate asset classes Get up to speed on alternative portfolio performance management methods Improve fund performance by applying appropriate models and quantitative techniques Correlations between assets increase markedly during market downturns, leading to diversification failure at the very moment it is needed most. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2006 hedge-fund crisis provide vivid examples, and many investors still bear the scars of heavy losses from their well-managed, well-diversified portfolios. Asymmetric Dependence in Finance shows you what went wrong, and how it can be corrected and managed before the next big threat using the latest methods and models from leading research in quantitative finance.

Download or read book Research Handbook on International Banking and Governance written by James R. Barth and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 767 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent financial crisis has stimulated much debate on the governance of financial institutions, as well as research on the effects of governance arrangements on risk-taking, performance and financial institutions more generally. Furthermore, researchers are asking how regulation, legislation, politics and other factors influence the governance of financial institutions and their behavior in different dimensions. The specially commissioned contributions featured in this timely Handbook confront these complex issues. The contributors – top international scholars from finance, law and business – explore the role of governance, both internal and external, in explaining risk-taking and other aspects of the behavior of financial institutions. Additionally, they discuss market and policy features affecting objectives and quality of governance. The chapters provide in-depth analysis of factors such as: ownership, efficiency and stability; market discipline; compensation and performance; social responsibility; and governance in non-bank financial institutions. Only through this kind of rigorous examination can one hope to implement the financial reforms necessary and sufficient to reduce the likelihood and severity of future crises. Bringing the reader to the frontier of research on governance of financial institutions, this volume is sure to inspire future research in scholars and students of financial institutions, governance and banking as well as all those involved with private financial institutions and public regulatory and supervisory authorities.

Download or read book Quantifying Systemic Risk written by Joseph G. Haubrich and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.

Download or read book Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets written by François M. Longin and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Federal Register written by and published by . This book was released on 2012-12 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: