Download or read book T cnicas innovadoras para la evaluaci n del riesgo s smico y su gesti n en centros urbanos Acciones ex ante y ex post written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT The objectives of this thesis are: the ex ante seismic risk evaluation for urban centers, the disaster risk management evaluation and the ex post risk evaluation of the damaged buildings after an earthquake. A complete review of the basic concepts and of the most important recent works performed in these fields. These aspects are basic for the development of the new ex ante and ex post seismic risk evaluation approaches which are proposed in this thesis and for the s evaluation of the effectiveness of the disaster risk management. Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. In Chapter 3 of this thesis, a multidisciplinary evaluation, that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience, which favour the second order effects when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general urban risk evaluation method is multi-hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach whose objective is to guide decision-making. This method has been applied to the cities of Bogota, Colombia, and Barcelona, Spain, and it is being applied to Metro Manila, Philippines. Chapter 4 develops a methodology for the disaster risk management evaluation. A disaster risk management index, DRMi, is conceptually supported and formulated, which measures the performance and the effectiveness of the risk management in a territory that can be a country, a subnational region or a city. The proposed DRMi is developed by quantifying four public policies: the risk identification, the risk reduction, the disaster management and the governance and financial protection. With this methodology eleven countries of Latin America and the Caribbean; Colombia at subnational level and Bogota at urban level were.

Download or read book T cnicas innovadoras para la evaluaci n del riesgo s smico y sus gesti n en centros urbanos written by Martha Liliana Carreño and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Computational Stochastic Mechanics written by A. H.-D. Cheng and published by Computational Mechanics. This book was released on 1993 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text examines the computational aspect of applying the stochastic technique to the analysis of engineering mechanics problems. It includes research from fields where the techniques have reached a considerable level of sophistication and from those areas new to the stochastic approach.

Download or read book Calculating Catastrophe written by G. Woo and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution

Download or read book Earthquake Protection written by Andrew Coburn and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-02-21 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the publication of the successful first edition of Earthquake Protection there have been 110 lethal earthquakes, killing 130 000 people; there have also been significant developments in the field of earthquake risk management, particularly in the modelling and analysis of risk for insurance and financial services. Furthermore, major earthquake disasters, such as the 1994 Northridge earthquake in California, the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan and the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey have occurred. The experience and knowledge gained through these events have improved our understanding of how to manage, mitigate and work towards the prevention of similar catastrophes. The 1990s were in fact the costliest decade on record in terms of disaster management due to such seismic events, placing unprecedented pressure on the insurance industry in particular, and changing its view of earthquake protection. Significantly revised and updated, this second edition continues to provide a comprehensive overview of how to reduce the impact of earthquakes on people and property, and implement best practice in managing the consequences of such disasters. It also includes significant coverage of the techniques of modelling earthquake catastrophe. Each chapter deals with a separate aspect of protection, and covers a wide range of economic and social conditions, drawing on the authors' considerable personal experience and with reference to real life examples. Key features include: Recent event coverage Modern developments in the theory and practice of planning and engineering loss estimation techniques, along with new engineering techniques such as microzonation and hazard-mapping Historic buildings experience An entirely new chapter on 'Earthquakes and Finance' This valuable book provides essential reading for earthquake and structural engineers and geoscientists, as well as insurers and loss prevention specialists, risk managers and assessors involved in managing earthquake risk, urban and regional planners, and emergency management agencies.

Download or read book Catastrophe Modeling written by Patricia Grossi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-01-27 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the research that has been conducted at Wharton Risk Management Center over the past five years on catastrophic risk. Covers a hot topic in the light of recent terroristic activities and nature catastrophes. Develops risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Provides glossary of definitions and terms used throughout the book.

Download or read book The Mathematics Of Natural Catastrophes written by Gordon Woo and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1999-10-15 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a unique book about natural catastrophes, focusing on the mathematical aspects of these phenomena. Although academic in style and didactic in purpose, it is practical in the treatment of the diverse issues covered, which range from hazard warning and forecasting to engineering design criteria and insurance loss estimation. Addressing as it does many mathematical topics not found together in a single volume, the book should be of value to all those with a quantitative educational interest in or professional concern for natural catastrophes.

Download or read book Prediction Projection and Forecasting written by Thomas L. Saaty and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-12-16 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict.

Download or read book Seismic Design Methodologies for the Next Generation of Codes written by P. Fajfar and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-10 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings, arising from an international workshop, present research results and ideas on issues of importance to seismic risk reduction and the development of future seismic codes.