Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Approach Overview and Description of Meteorological Basis written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on the premise that TC forecasters can improve upon dynamical track forecasts generated by numerical models and other objective guidance, if the forecasters are equipped with: (1) a meteorological knowledge base of conceptual models that organizes a wide array of scenarios into a relatively few recurring, dynamically-related situations; and (2) a knowledge base of numerical model TC forecast traits and objective aid traits that is organized around the meteorological knowledge base. The approach is systematic because it includes a methodology for consistently applying the two knowledge bases to generate the official track forecast. The approach is also integrated because the meteorological knowledge base includes motion-relevant characterizations of environment structure, characterizations of TC structure (intensity and size), and motion- affecting alterations of the environment structure caused by various interactions between the TC and the environment.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Lester E. Carr and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on the premise that TC forecasters can improve upon dynamical track forecasts generated by numerical models and other objective guidance, if the forecasters are equipped with: (1) a meteorological knowledge base of conceptual models that organizes a wide array of scenarios into a relatively few recurring, dynamically- related situations; and (2) a knowledge base of numerical model TC forecast traits and objective aid traits that is organized around the meteorological knowledge base. The approach is systematic because it includes a methodology for consistently applying the two knowledge bases to generate the official track forecast. The approach is also integrated because the meteorological knowledge base includes motion-relevant characterizations of environment structure, characterizations of TC structure (intensity and size), and motion-affecting alterations of the environment structure caused by various interactions between the TC and the environment.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part II written by Lester E. Carr and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report continues the development of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting by Carr and Elsberry (1994) with specific application to the western Pacific region. Five years (1989-93) of 12-h Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses are examined for every tropical cyclone to establish a climatology of Environment Structure characterizations. Frequencies of the four Synoptic Patterns and the six Synoptic Regions are calculated, and characteristic tracks while in each of the Pattern/Region combinations are provided. A four-year subset of NOGAPS analyses is used in a reproducibility test in which three trainees attempted to achieve the same Environment Structure assignments as an experienced forecaster. Approximately 81% of the Synoptic Patterns, 86% of the Synoptic Regions, and 77% of the Pattern/Region combinations were correctly assigned by the trainees. However, certain Pattern/Region combinations were found to be poorly identified, which indicated a need for some new training materials. Approximately 81% of the Pattern/Region transitions to a correct or similar combination were detected by the trainees. About 72% of these correct/similar transitions were identified within + 12 h of the actual transition, and 88% were identified within + 24 h. Certain transitions were consistently missed, which again indicates a need for improved descriptions and training. Refinements of the Meteorological Knowledge Base of the Systematic Approach were made on the basis of the five year climatology and reproducibility test. These refinements, which are summarized in Chapter 4.9, include new transitional mechanisms associated with Monsoon Gyre Formation and Dissipation and Reverse oriented Trough Formation.
Download or read book l ments pour une politique r gionale d industrialisation written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Traits Knowledge Base for JTWC Track Forecast Models in the Western North Pacific written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All highly erroneous NOGAPS and GFDN track forecasts (72-h error> 300 n mi) in the western North Pacific during 1997 are examined and responsible error mechanisms are identified using the conceptual models of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base. An important and encouraging result of this research is that only six error mechanisms account for 84% (91 of 108) of the poor NOGAPS track forecasts, and only three error mechanisms account for 68% (61 of 90) of the poor GFDN track forecasts. The indications and characteristics of these frequently recurring error mechanisms in the forecast tracks and fields of the models are thoroughly documented and one or more illustrative case studies are provided for each error mechanism. This documentation is organized into a 5 level preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base for use by TC forecasters when applying the Systematic Approach to formulate the official track forecast. The results of this research also provide model developers and researchers at FNMOC, NRL Monterey, and GFDL with specific information needed to improve the TC track forecasting performance of the NOGAPS and GFDN models.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Traits Knowledge Base for JTWC Track Forecast Models in the Western North Pacific written by Lester E. Carr, III and published by . This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All highly erroneous NOGAPS and GFDN track forecasts (72-h error > 300 n mi) in the western North Pacific during 1997 are examined and responsible error mechanisms are identified using the conceptual models of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base. An important and encouraging result of this research is that only six error mechanisms account for 84% (91 of 108) of the poor NOGAPS track forecasts, and only three error mechanisms account for 68% (61 of 90) of the poor GFDN track forecasts. The indications and characteristics of these frequently recurring error mechanisms in the forecast tracks and fields of the models are thoroughly documented and one or more illustrative case studies are provided for each error mechanism. This documentation is organized into a 5 level preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base for use by TC forecasters when applying the Systematic Approach to formulate the official track forecast. The results of this research also provide model developers and researchers at FNMOC, NRL Monterey, and GFDL with specific information needed to improve the TC track forecasting performance of the NOGAPS and GFDN models.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic written by Christopher S. T. Kent and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting was introduced in 1994 by Carr and Elsberry to help forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam. The author was trained in the Systematic Approach as part of a reproducibility test for western Pacific cyclones as described in Chapter II. This study is the application of the meteorological framework of Carr and Elsberry to the North Atlantic. All North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1990-1994 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the North Atlantic requires three modifications in the Environment Structure and TC- Environment transformation mechanisms: (i) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; (ii) a variation on the North-oriented Pattern is added; and (iii) a Weak Westerlies Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Pattern. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transformation mechanism. A preliminary climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. While the Standard Pattern is the most common, it is surprising that the Weakened Ridge Region is so prevalent. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the North Atlantic written by Christopher S. T. Kent and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Systematic Approach for tropical cyclone track forecasting was introduced in 1994 by Carr and Elsberry to help forecasters at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Guam. The author was trained in the Systematic Approach as part of a reproducibility test for western Pacific cyclones as described in Chapter II. This study is the application of the meteorological framework of Carr and Elsberry to the North Atlantic. All North Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1990-1994 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the North Atlantic requires three modifications in the Environment Structure and TC- Environment transformation mechanisms: (i) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; (ii) a variation on the North-oriented Pattern is added; and (iii) a Weak Westerlies Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Pattern. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transformation mechanism. A preliminary climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. While the Standard Pattern is the most common, it is surprising that the Weakened Ridge Region is so prevalent. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Eastern and Central North Pacific written by Sean R. White and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is the application of the meteorological framework in the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting of Carr and Elsberry to the eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones. All eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1990-1993 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the eastern and central North Pacific requires modifications in the Environment Structure and TC-Environment transitional mechanisms: (1) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; and (2) a Weak Westerly Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Synoptic Pattern. A four year climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. The Standard Pattern and Dominant Ridge Region are the most common because of the dominance of the subtropical ridge in eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclone motion. However, two subregions in the subtropical ridge with different tilts account for track direction variations from south of west to north of west within the Standard Synoptic Pattern. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transitional mechanism.
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 652 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lists citations with abstracts for aerospace related reports obtained from world wide sources and announces documents that have recently been entered into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information Database.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Eastern and Central North Pacific written by Sean R. White and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study is the application of the meteorological framework in the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting of Carr and Elsberry to the eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones. All eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1990-1993 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the eastern and central North Pacific requires modifications in the Environment Structure and TC-Environment transitional mechanisms: (1) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; and (2) a Weak Westerly Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Synoptic Pattern. A four year climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. The Standard Pattern and Dominant Ridge Region are the most common because of the dominance of the subtropical ridge in eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclone motion. However, two subregions in the subtropical ridge with different tilts account for track direction variations from south of west to north of west within the Standard Synoptic Pattern. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transitional mechanism.
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990-98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Mark A. Booth and published by . This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990- 98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Exploring Natural Hazards written by Darius Bartlett and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-04-09 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 has identified four priority areas for Disaster Risk Reduction: understanding disaster risk; strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response; and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Although tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in understanding the workings of the Earth systems and, in particular, its impacts on and responses to human actions, there remains a continuing and pressing need for knowledge that will allow society to simultaneously reduce exposure to global environmental hazards, while also meeting economic development goals. Exploring Natural Hazards: A Case Study Approach, contributes to the knowledge showcasing advanced practices for the monitoring of natural hazards. Through each case study, the book examines mainly hazards arising from processes within the hydrosphere and atmosphere, triggered or exacerbated by inputs to and transfers of energy between environmental components. It discusses the causes of these phenomena, and ways in which improved policy making, sometimes coupled with the application of appropriate modern technologies, can help to reduce people’s exposure to harm. Discussing challenges, lessons learned and recommendations, this book provides a snapshot of issues related to tropical cyclones and typhoons, desertification, floods, lightning as a hazard and the need for alert systems. It is a valuable resource for practitioners and professionals alike, for researchers, students and others who work at the intersection between environmental hazards, sustainable development and social justice.
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by III. Carr and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Anthony J. Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 2 Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
