Download or read book Surrogate Data Models Interpreting Large scale Machine Learning Crisis Prediction Models written by Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-24 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning models are becoming increasingly important in the prediction of economic crises. The models, however, use datasets comprising a large number of predictors (features) which impairs model interpretability and their ability to provide adequate guidance in the design of crisis prevention and mitigation policies. This paper introduces surrogate data models as dimensionality reduction tools in large-scale crisis prediction models. The appropriateness of this approach is assessed by their application to large-scale crisis prediction models developed at the IMF. The results are consistent with economic intuition and validate the use of surrogates as interpretability tools.
Download or read book Machine Learning for Ecology and Sustainable Natural Resource Management written by Grant Humphries and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-05 with total page 442 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ecologists and natural resource managers are charged with making complex management decisions in the face of a rapidly changing environment resulting from climate change, energy development, urban sprawl, invasive species and globalization. Advances in Geographic Information System (GIS) technology, digitization, online data availability, historic legacy datasets, remote sensors and the ability to collect data on animal movements via satellite and GPS have given rise to large, highly complex datasets. These datasets could be utilized for making critical management decisions, but are often “messy” and difficult to interpret. Basic artificial intelligence algorithms (i.e., machine learning) are powerful tools that are shaping the world and must be taken advantage of in the life sciences. In ecology, machine learning algorithms are critical to helping resource managers synthesize information to better understand complex ecological systems. Machine Learning has a wide variety of powerful applications, with three general uses that are of particular interest to ecologists: (1) data exploration to gain system knowledge and generate new hypotheses, (2) predicting ecological patterns in space and time, and (3) pattern recognition for ecological sampling. Machine learning can be used to make predictive assessments even when relationships between variables are poorly understood. When traditional techniques fail to capture the relationship between variables, effective use of machine learning can unearth and capture previously unattainable insights into an ecosystem's complexity. Currently, many ecologists do not utilize machine learning as a part of the scientific process. This volume highlights how machine learning techniques can complement the traditional methodologies currently applied in this field.
Download or read book Data Science for Economics and Finance written by Sergio Consoli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021 with total page 357 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book covers the use of data science, including advanced machine learning, big data analytics, Semantic Web technologies, natural language processing, social media analysis, time series analysis, among others, for applications in economics and finance. In addition, it shows some successful applications of advanced data science solutions used to extract new knowledge from data in order to improve economic forecasting models. The book starts with an introduction on the use of data science technologies in economics and finance and is followed by thirteen chapters showing success stories of the application of specific data science methodologies, touching on particular topics related to novel big data sources and technologies for economic analysis (e.g. social media and news); big data models leveraging on supervised/unsupervised (deep) machine learning; natural language processing to build economic and financial indicators; and forecasting and nowcasting of economic variables through time series analysis. This book is relevant to all stakeholders involved in digital and data-intensive research in economics and finance, helping them to understand the main opportunities and challenges, become familiar with the latest methodological findings, and learn how to use and evaluate the performances of novel tools and frameworks. It primarily targets data scientists and business analysts exploiting data science technologies, and it will also be a useful resource to research students in disciplines and courses related to these topics. Overall, readers will learn modern and effective data science solutions to create tangible innovations for economic and financial applications.
Download or read book Patterns Predictions and Actions Foundations of Machine Learning written by Moritz Hardt and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-23 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative, up-to-date graduate textbook on machine learning that highlights its historical context and societal impacts Patterns, Predictions, and Actions introduces graduate students to the essentials of machine learning while offering invaluable perspective on its history and social implications. Beginning with the foundations of decision making, Moritz Hardt and Benjamin Recht explain how representation, optimization, and generalization are the constituents of supervised learning. They go on to provide self-contained discussions of causality, the practice of causal inference, sequential decision making, and reinforcement learning, equipping readers with the concepts and tools they need to assess the consequences that may arise from acting on statistical decisions. Provides a modern introduction to machine learning, showing how data patterns support predictions and consequential actions Pays special attention to societal impacts and fairness in decision making Traces the development of machine learning from its origins to today Features a novel chapter on machine learning benchmarks and datasets Invites readers from all backgrounds, requiring some experience with probability, calculus, and linear algebra An essential textbook for students and a guide for researchers
Download or read book Convex Optimization written by Stephen P. Boyd and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2004-03-08 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Convex optimization problems arise frequently in many different fields. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to the subject, and shows in detail how such problems can be solved numerically with great efficiency. The book begins with the basic elements of convex sets and functions, and then describes various classes of convex optimization problems. Duality and approximation techniques are then covered, as are statistical estimation techniques. Various geometrical problems are then presented, and there is detailed discussion of unconstrained and constrained minimization problems, and interior-point methods. The focus of the book is on recognizing convex optimization problems and then finding the most appropriate technique for solving them. It contains many worked examples and homework exercises and will appeal to students, researchers and practitioners in fields such as engineering, computer science, mathematics, statistics, finance and economics.
Download or read book Completing the Market Generating Shadow CDS Spreads by Machine Learning written by Nan Hu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-12-27 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.
Download or read book Proceedings of the international conference on Machine Learning written by John Anderson and published by . This book was released on 19?? with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Data Mining With Decision Trees Theory And Applications 2nd Edition written by Oded Z Maimon and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-09-03 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision trees have become one of the most powerful and popular approaches in knowledge discovery and data mining; it is the science of exploring large and complex bodies of data in order to discover useful patterns. Decision tree learning continues to evolve over time. Existing methods are constantly being improved and new methods introduced.This 2nd Edition is dedicated entirely to the field of decision trees in data mining; to cover all aspects of this important technique, as well as improved or new methods and techniques developed after the publication of our first edition. In this new edition, all chapters have been revised and new topics brought in. New topics include Cost-Sensitive Active Learning, Learning with Uncertain and Imbalanced Data, Using Decision Trees beyond Classification Tasks, Privacy Preserving Decision Tree Learning, Lessons Learned from Comparative Studies, and Learning Decision Trees for Big Data. A walk-through guide to existing open-source data mining software is also included in this edition.This book invites readers to explore the many benefits in data mining that decision trees offer:
Download or read book Machine learning Techniques in Economics written by Atin Basuchoudhary and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-28 with total page 97 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops a machine-learning framework for predicting economic growth. It can also be considered as a primer for using machine learning (also known as data mining or data analytics) to answer economic questions. While machine learning itself is not a new idea, advances in computing technology combined with a dawning realization of its applicability to economic questions makes it a new tool for economists.
Download or read book Statistical and Machine Learning Data Mining written by Bruce Ratner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-07-12 with total page 690 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest in predictive analytics of big data has grown exponentially in the four years since the publication of Statistical and Machine-Learning Data Mining: Techniques for Better Predictive Modeling and Analysis of Big Data, Second Edition. In the third edition of this bestseller, the author has completely revised, reorganized, and repositioned the original chapters and produced 13 new chapters of creative and useful machine-learning data mining techniques. In sum, the 43 chapters of simple yet insightful quantitative techniques make this book unique in the field of data mining literature. What is new in the Third Edition: The current chapters have been completely rewritten. The core content has been extended with strategies and methods for problems drawn from the top predictive analytics conference and statistical modeling workshops. Adds thirteen new chapters including coverage of data science and its rise, market share estimation, share of wallet modeling without survey data, latent market segmentation, statistical regression modeling that deals with incomplete data, decile analysis assessment in terms of the predictive power of the data, and a user-friendly version of text mining, not requiring an advanced background in natural language processing (NLP). Includes SAS subroutines which can be easily converted to other languages. As in the previous edition, this book offers detailed background, discussion, and illustration of specific methods for solving the most commonly experienced problems in predictive modeling and analysis of big data. The author addresses each methodology and assigns its application to a specific type of problem. To better ground readers, the book provides an in-depth discussion of the basic methodologies of predictive modeling and analysis. While this type of overview has been attempted before, this approach offers a truly nitty-gritty, step-by-step method that both tyros and experts in the field can enjoy playing with.
Download or read book Deep Learning written by Ian Goodfellow and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 801 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to a broad range of topics in deep learning, covering mathematical and conceptual background, deep learning techniques used in industry, and research perspectives. “Written by three experts in the field, Deep Learning is the only comprehensive book on the subject.” —Elon Musk, cochair of OpenAI; cofounder and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX Deep learning is a form of machine learning that enables computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts. Because the computer gathers knowledge from experience, there is no need for a human computer operator to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts allows the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones; a graph of these hierarchies would be many layers deep. This book introduces a broad range of topics in deep learning. The text offers mathematical and conceptual background, covering relevant concepts in linear algebra, probability theory and information theory, numerical computation, and machine learning. It describes deep learning techniques used by practitioners in industry, including deep feedforward networks, regularization, optimization algorithms, convolutional networks, sequence modeling, and practical methodology; and it surveys such applications as natural language processing, speech recognition, computer vision, online recommendation systems, bioinformatics, and videogames. Finally, the book offers research perspectives, covering such theoretical topics as linear factor models, autoencoders, representation learning, structured probabilistic models, Monte Carlo methods, the partition function, approximate inference, and deep generative models. Deep Learning can be used by undergraduate or graduate students planning careers in either industry or research, and by software engineers who want to begin using deep learning in their products or platforms. A website offers supplementary material for both readers and instructors.
Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Download or read book Machine Learning in Marketing Overview Learning Strategies Applications and Future Developments written by Vinicius Andrade Brei and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph discusses the central role that artificial intelligence and machine learning can play as a research method in the marketing field. The goal of this monograph is to provide marketing with an overview of ML and to analyze required learning, applications, and future developments involved in applying ML to marketing.
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Drug Discovery written by Nathan Brown and published by Royal Society of Chemistry. This book was released on 2020-11-04 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following significant advances in deep learning and related areas interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly grown. In particular, the application of AI in drug discovery provides an opportunity to tackle challenges that previously have been difficult to solve, such as predicting properties, designing molecules and optimising synthetic routes. Artificial Intelligence in Drug Discovery aims to introduce the reader to AI and machine learning tools and techniques, and to outline specific challenges including designing new molecular structures, synthesis planning and simulation. Providing a wealth of information from leading experts in the field this book is ideal for students, postgraduates and established researchers in both industry and academia.
Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.
Download or read book Machine Learning and Big Data Analytics Proceedings of International Conference on Machine Learning and Big Data Analytics ICMLBDA 2021 written by Rajiv Misra and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-29 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume on machine learning and big data analytics (Proceedings of ICMLBDA 2021) is intended to be used as a reference book for researchers and practitioners in the disciplines of computer science, electronics and telecommunication, information science, and electrical engineering. Machine learning and Big data analytics represent a key ingredients in the industrial applications for new products and services. Big data analytics applies machine learning for predictions by examining large and varied data sets—i.e., big data—to uncover hidden patterns, unknown correlations, market trends, customer preferences, and other useful information that can help organizations make more informed business decisions.
