Download or read book Sure Uncertainty written by Peter Larner and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2017-06-23 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anthony Burgess said that the virtue of historical fiction is its vice - the flatfooted affirmation of possibility as fact. It is possible that Shakespeare met Marlowe, as he does in Sure Uncertainty. It is possible that Marlowe's untimely death caused some of his unpublished plays to end up in the hands of Shakespeare. And it is true, strangely, that William Shakespeare and Christopher Marlowe were born on exactly the same date. Is this a coincidence, or the reason why Will Shakespeare wants to avenge the murder of Kit and prevent Marlowe's godson from becoming involved in Catesby's plot to blow up Parliament? And yet, if the brutal killing of Marlowe was twelve years before the Gunpowder Plot, how else are these two incidents linked?
Download or read book Communicating Certainty and Uncertainty in Medical Supportive and Scientific Contexts written by Andrzej Zuczkowski and published by John Benjamins Publishing Company. This book was released on 2014-11-15 with total page 423 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is a collection of 18 papers on the communication of certainty and uncertainty. The first part introduces recent theoretical developments and general models on the topic and its relations with modality, subjectivity, inter-subjectivity, epistemicity, evidentiality, hedging, mitigation and speech acts. In the second part, results from empirical studies in medical and supportive contexts are presented, all of which are based on a conversational analysis approach. These papers report on professional dialogues including advice giving in gynecological consultations, breaking diagnostic bad news to patients, emergency calls, addiction therapeutic community meetings and bureaucratic-institutional interactions. The final part concerns the qualitative and quantitative analysis of corpora, addressing scientific writing (both research and popular articles) and academic communication in English, German, Spanish and Romanian. The collection is addressed to scholars concerned with the topical issues from a theoretical and analytical perspective and to health professionals interested in the practical implications of communicating certainty or uncertainty.
Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 525 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the first edition: Principles of Uncertainty is a profound and mesmerising book on the foundations and principles of subjectivist or behaviouristic Bayesian analysis. ... the book is a pleasure to read. And highly recommended for teaching as it can be used at many different levels. ... A must-read for sure!—Christian Robert, CHANCE It's a lovely book, one that I hope will be widely adopted as a course textbook. —Michael Jordan, University of California, Berkeley, USA Like the prize-winning first edition, Principles of Uncertainty, Second Edition is an accessible, comprehensive text on the theory of Bayesian Statistics written in an appealing, inviting style, and packed with interesting examples. It presents an introduction to the subjective Bayesian approach which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. This new edition has been updated throughout and features new material on Nonparametric Bayesian Methods, the Dirichlet distribution, a simple proof of the central limit theorem, and new problems. Key Features: First edition won the 2011 DeGroot Prize Well-written introduction to theory of Bayesian statistics Each of the introductory chapters begins by introducing one new concept or assumption Uses "just-in-time mathematics"—the introduction to mathematical ideas just before they are applied
Download or read book Principles of Uncertainty written by Joseph B. Kadane and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-05-18 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics.An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods.
Download or read book An Epidemic of Uncertainty written by Jenny Trinitapoli and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2023 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In An Epidemic of Uncertainty, Jenny Trinitapoli advances a new model for studying social life by emphasizing something that social scientists routinely omit from their theories, models, and measures--what people know they don't know. The book takes Malawi's ongoing AIDS epidemic as its entry point for understanding the stakes of uncertainty. After a four-decades-long battle, new infections are down and AIDS-related mortality has declined. But in the wake of pandemic AIDS, an epidemic of uncertainty persists; at any given point in time, half the population doesn't know their HIV status. The author argues that AIDS-related uncertainty is measurable, pervasive, and impervious to biomedical solutions. The consequences of uncertainty are pertinent to multiple domains of life including relationship stability, fertility, health, and well-being. Even as HIV is transformed from a progressive, fatal infection to a chronic and manageable condition, the accompanying epidemic of uncertainty remains central to understanding social life in this part of the world. This book is based on a ground-breaking longitudinal study that documents how the lives of young adults in Balaka, Malawi, unfold over a ten-year period. Trinitapoli also makes three general contributions: first, a demography of uncertainty and a set of theoretical and empirical tools for integrating what people know they don't know into social-scientific models of human behavior; second, a decade-long longitudinal study articulating what demographic approaches have to offer the social sciences; and third, an expansive attitude toward the empirical, which brings longitudinal survey data to life by incorporating accounts of uncertainty and its resolution through ethnography designed to capture population chatter and gossip in Balaka"--
Download or read book Worrying written by Graham C. Davey and published by . This book was released on 1994-05-31 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions in this comprehensive volume represent research conducted over the past 10 years. Practical and clinically relevant developments; several measurement instruments for the assessment of worry at all points along the developmental continuum; specific management and treatment strategies including a particularly useful tactic for modifying pessimism in worriers are among the issues discussed.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Traceability for the CEESI Iowa Natural Gas Facility written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Design Decisions under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2011-02-18 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker‘s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a
Download or read book Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.
Download or read book Uncertainty and Economics written by Christian Müller-Kademann and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-08 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is set against the assumption that humans' unique feature is their infinite creativity, their ability to reflect on their deeds and to control their actions. These skills give rise to genuine uncertainty in society and hence in the economy. Here, the author sets out that uncertainty must take centre stage in all analyses of human decision making and therefore in economics. Uncertainty and Economics carefully defines a taxonomy of uncertainty and argues that it is only uncertainty in its most radical form which matters to economics. It shows that uncertainty is a powerful concept that not only helps to resolve long-standing economic puzzles but also unveils serious contradictions within current, popular economic approaches. It argues that neoclassical, real business cycle, or new-Keynesian economics must be understood as only one way to circumvent the analytical challenges posed by uncertainty. Instead, embracing uncertainty offers a new analytical paradigm which, in this book, is applied to standard economic topics such as institutions, money, the Lucas critique, fiscal policy and asset pricing. Through applying a concise uncertainty paradigm, the book sheds new light on human decision making at large. Offering policy conclusions and recommendations for further theoretical and applied research, it will be of great interest to postgraduate students, academics and policy makers.
Download or read book The Politics of Uncertainty written by Andreas Schedler and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a major new theory of authoritarian politics. It studies regime struggles between government and opposition under electoral authoritarianism and argues that autocracies suffer from institutional uncertainties.
Download or read book Our Uncertain World written by Leslie Sawin and published by Chiron Publications. This book was released on 2023-12-20 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We live in times of uncertainty and anxiety. In these times, how can we best navigate our unknowns? Our Uncertain World answers that question through a Jungian prism. Carl Jung’s theory has helped many people through difficult times. Jungian perspectives facilitate such challenging navigation by not simplifying complexity but rather by finding the meaningful through-lines that guide the individual toward individuation even in the darkest of times. Using Jung’s unique multi-dimensional approach, this book offers insights and provides answers to questions about life in a state of three-dimensional flux. Our Uncertain World was born from the premise that we are in a period of ongoing change. The interlocking crises of COVID, national polarization, environmental disaster, and international war can undermine or even destroy the symbols, rituals, and mental structures that give meaning and coherence to our lives. These crises are explored in depth In the book’s three sections, Living with Personal Uncertainty over the Long Term, Social Turmoil: A Moment of Social change for Our Community and Our Nation, and Challenges Facing Our World: Grappling with the Environment, The Pandemic and War. The authors of this book accompany the reader through the current challenges we face and examine new ways of adjusting to the existing condition of protracted uncertainty. The book encourages the reader to articulate their own challenges and develop their own language to write, speak, and live within the reality of uncertain times. Our Uncertain World provides tools for individuals and groups to formulate new perspectives and life strategies for the current reality.
Download or read book Uncertainty Principle of Werner Heisenberg written by IntroBooks Team and published by IntroBooks. This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Quantum mechanics is widely considered to be the scientific theory that is one's best choice for the fundamental and universal explanation of the physical world. The conceptual structure used in this theory varies dramatically from that of classical physics. After all, the transition from classical to quantum physics is a true revolution in people's understanding of the physical universe. One striking feature of the distinction between classical and quantum physics is that while classical mechanics assumes that precise simultaneous values can be assigned to all physical quantities, quantum mechanics, on the other hand, rejects this possibility, the classic example being the momentum and position of a particle.
Download or read book Allocation under Uncertainty Equilibrium and Optimality written by Jacques H Drèze and published by Springer. This book was released on 1965-01-01 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Handling Uncertainty written by Mike Briggs and published by IChemE. This book was released on 2003 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Acting as a wide-ranging guide for young professionals and a source of reference for managers, this title deals with the subject of uncertainty in the process industries and related fields, in a practical and positive way. It demonstrates how to recognize key features and handle different situations effectively, illustrating the principles for effective action with examples from the author's experience in the process industries.
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Download or read book Do Dice Play God written by Ian Stewart and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2019-06-06 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is everywhere. It lurks in every consideration of the future - the weather, the economy, the sex of an unborn child - even quantities we think that we know such as populations or the transit of the planets contain the possibility of error. It's no wonder that, throughout that history, we have attempted to produce rigidly defined areas of uncertainty - we prefer the surprise party to the surprise asteroid. We began our quest to make certain an uncertain world by reading omens in livers, tea leaves, and the stars. However, over the centuries, driven by curiosity, competition, and a desire be better gamblers, pioneering mathematicians and scientists began to reduce wild uncertainties to tame distributions of probability and statistical inferences. But, even as unknown unknowns became known unknowns, our pessimism made us believe that some problems were unsolvable and our intuition misled us. Worse, as we realized how omnipresent and varied uncertainty is, we encountered chaos, quantum mechanics, and the limitations of our predictive power. Bestselling author Professor Ian Stewart explores the history and mathematics of uncertainty. Touching on gambling, probability, statistics, financial and weather forecasts, censuses, medical studies, chaos, quantum physics, and climate, he makes one thing clear: a reasonable probability is the only certainty.
