Download or read book Sudden Stops Output Drops and Credit Collapses written by Jihad Dagher and published by . This book was released on 2004-12-31 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a tractable Sudden Stop model to explain the main patterns in firm level data in a sample of Southeast Asian firms during the Asian crisis. The model, which features trend shocks and financial frictions, is able to generate the main patterns observed in the sample during and following the Asian crisis, including the ensuing credit-less recovery, which are also patterns broadly shared by most Sudden Stop episodes as documented in Calvo et al. (2006). The model also proposes a novel explanation as to why small firms experience steeper declines than their larger peers as documented in this paper. This size effect is generated under the assumption that small firms are growth firms, to which there is support in the data. Trend shocks when combined with financial frictions in this model also generate strong leverage effects in line with what is observed in the sample, and with other observations from the literature.

Download or read book Sudden Stops and Output Drops written by V. V. Chari and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In recent financial crises and in recent theoretical studies of them, abrupt declines in capital inflows, or sudden stops, have been linked with large drops in output.Do sudden stops cause output drops? No, according to a standard equilibrium model in which sudden stops are generated by an abrupt tightening of a country's collateral constraint on foreign borrowing.In this model, in fact, sudden stops lead to output increases, not decreases.An examination of the quantitative effects of a well-known sudden stop, in Mexico in the mid-1990s, confirms that a drop in output accompanying a sudden stop cannot be accounted for by the sudden stop alone.To generate an output drop during a financial crisis, as other studies have done, the model must include other economic frictions which have negative effects on output large enough to overwhelm the positive effect of the sudden stop"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site.

Download or read book Sudden Stops and Output Drops written by Suparna Chakraborty and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical literature overwhelmingly suggest that sudden stops lead to output drops. Can general equilibrium theory predict this link or is it theoretically impossible for sudden stops to generate output drops by themselves as other studies suggest? In this paper we contend that the answer depends on the response of labor to a sudden stop which in turn depends on the type of preference specification used. To this end, we use a small open economy model where agents face a constraint on foreign borrowing and a sudden stop occurs due to an abrupt tightening of the borrowing constraint. We find that under Cobb-Douglas preferences, the dominant wealth e¤ect of a sudden stop leads to labor increases which in turn generates an output increase as opposed to a drop! In contrast, under GHH preferences that by construction eliminate the wealth effect, a sudden stop leads to declines in future capital and labor supply leading to drops in output. We find empirical support of our conclusion in data from a sample of emerging economies where labor declined significantly in the aftermath of a sudden stop.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin December 2010 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about emerging markets and the financial crisis (by Ayhan Kose); the research summaries are "Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle" (by Cemile Sancak, Ricardo Velloso, and Jing Xing) and "Banking Crisis Resolution: Was this Time Different?" (by Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia). The issue also lists the contents of the second issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 58 Number 2; visiting scholars at the IMF during October-December 2010; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Position Notes.

Download or read book The Political Economy of Monetary Solidarity written by Waltraud Schelkle and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Creating the European monetary union between diverse and unequal nation states is arguably one of the biggest social experiments in history. This book offers an explanation of how the euro experiment came about and was sustained despite a severe crisis, and provides a comparison with the monetary-financial history of the US. The euro experiment can be understood as risk-sharing through a currency that is issued by a supranational central bank. A single currency shares liquidity risks by creating larger markets for all financial assets. A single monetary policy responds to business cycles in the currency area as a whole rather than managing the path of one dominant economy. Mechanisms of risk-sharing become institutions of monetary solidarity if they are consciously maintained, but they will periodically face opposition in member states. This book argues that diversity of membership is not an economic obstacle to the success of the euro, as diversity increases the potential gains from risk sharing. But political cooperation is needed to realize this potential, and such cooperation is up against collective action problems which become more intractable as the parties become more diverse. Hence, risk-sharing usually comes about as a collective by-product of national incentives. This political-economic tension can explain why the gains from risk-sharing are not more fully exploited, both in the euro area and in the US dollar area. This approach to monetary integration is based on the theory of collective action when hierarchy is not available as a solution to inter-state cooperation. The theory originates with Keohane and Ostrom (1995) and it is applied in this book, taking into account the latest research on the inherent instability of financial market integration.

Download or read book The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises written by Giovanni Piersanti and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-04-26 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the causes and consequences of speculative attacks on domestic currency and international financial turmoil. It provides a comprehensive treatment of the existing theories of exchange rate crises and of financial market runs.

Download or read book The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2012-12-31 with total page 807 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp realities of financial globalization become clear during crises, when winners and losers emerge. Crises usher in short- and long-term changes to the status quo, and everyone agrees that learning from crises is a top priority. The Evidence and Impact of Financial Globalization devotes separate articles to specific crises, the conditions that cause them, and the longstanding arrangements devised to address them. While other books and journal articles treat these subjects in isolation, this volume presents a wide-ranging, consistent, yet varied specificity. Substantial, authoritative, and useful, these articles provide material unavailable elsewhere. Substantial articles by top scholars sets this volume apart from other information sources Rapidly developing subjects will interest readers well into the future Reader demand and lack of competitors underline the high value of these reference works

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations Types and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Download or read book Sudden Stops Financial Crises and Leverage written by Enrique G. Mendoza and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper shows that the quantitative predictions of a DSGE model with an endogenous collateral constraint are consistent with key features of the emerging markets' Sudden Stops. Business cycle dynamics produce periods of expansion during which the ratio of debt to asset values raises enough to trigger the constraint. This sets in motion a deflation of Tobin's Q driven by Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism, which causes a spiraling decline in credit access and in the price and quantity of collateral assets. Output and factor allocations decline because the collateral constraint limits access to working capital financing. This credit constraint induces significant amplification and asymmetry in the responses of macro-aggregates to shocks. Because of precautionary saving, Sudden Stops are low probability events nested within normal cycles in the long run"--P.1.

Download or read book Credit Reversals written by Mr. Francisco F. Vazquez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies episodes in which aggregate bank credit contracts alongside expanding economic activity—credit reversals. Using data for 179 countries during 1960‒2017, the paper finds that reversals are a relatively common phenomenon--on average, they occur every five years. By comparison, banking crises take place every eight years on average. Credit reversals and banking crises also appear related to each other: reversals become more likely in the aftermath of banking crises, while the likelihood of crises drops following reversals. In terms of foregone economic activity, reversals are shown to be very costly, at about two-thirds of the costs of banking crises after taking into account their relative frequencies.

Download or read book Sudden Stops and Currency Drops written by Luis Catão and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-05 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that recent manifestations of sudden stops (SSs) in international capital flows have striking parallels in the early financial globalization era preceding World War I. All main capital-importing countries then faced episodic capital flow reversals averaging some 5 percent of GDP and with a median duration of four years. Most SSs also displayed striking crosscountry synchronization, being immediately preceded by rising world interest rates. Both fixed and floating exchange rate regimes were hit, with no significant differences between them. Yet, not all SSs resulted in currency drops: while some countries experienced currency collapses, others managed to preserve exchange rate stability. These different responses are related to domestic "frictions" that heightened the procyclicality of absorption and hindered precautionary reserve accumulation in some countries relative to others.

Download or read book Handbook of International Economics written by Gita Gopinath and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-02-22 with total page 773 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What conclusions can be drawn from recent advances in international trade and international macroeconomics? New datasets, theoretical models, and empirical studies have resulted in fresh questions about the world trade and payment system. These chapters--six on trade and six on international macroeconomics--reveal the richness that researchers have uncovered in recent years. The chapters on foreign trade present, among other subjects, new integrated multisector analytical frameworks, the use of gravity equations for the estimation of trade flows, the role of domestic institutions in shaping comparative advantage, and international trade agreements. On international macroeconomics, chapters explore the relation between exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables; risk sharing, allocation of capital across countries, and current account dynamics; and sovereign debt and financial crises. By addressing new issues while enabling deeper and sharper analyses of old issues, this volume makes a significant contribution to our understanding of the global economy. Systematically illuminates and interprets recent developments in research on international trade and international macroeconomics Focuses on newly developing questions and opportunities for future research Presents multiple perspectives on ways to understand the global economy

Download or read book A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles written by Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-07-01 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.

Download or read book Unlocking Credit written by Inter-American Development Bank and published by IDB. This book was released on 2004 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Annotation Bank loans are the main source of credit for businesses across Latin America, so understanding what determines the depth, cost, and volatility of bank credit is crucial to designing strategies that ensure financial stability and promote growth. This new edition of Economic and Social Progress in Latin America provides a comprehensive analysis of the region's all-important banking industry. The book examines two-way interactions between macroeconomic policies and financial intermediation -- not only how these policies affect banking but how banks weather intermediate shocks, and how industry incentives can prompt bank portfolio choices that influence economic policy. The report also discusses how elements of a financial safety net -- including deposit insurance, prudential regulation, protection of creditor rights, and legal and judicial enforcement -- can mitigate factors that make credit more volatile and constrain its expansion. Finally, the report studies how the banking industry's market structure affects its performance. Particular attention is given to the role of government- versus foreign-owned banks, access to credit by small and medium-sized enterprises, and the development of mortgage credit markets.

Download or read book The Great Trade Collapse Causes Consequences and Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2009 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Financial Crises written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-19 with total page 670 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects June 2015 written by The World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-06-22 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016-17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.