Download or read book Subseasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the North Atlantic written by Michael Maier-Gerber and published by . This book was released on 2023* with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-24 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.
Download or read book Hurricanes of the North Atlantic written by James B. Elsner and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1999-06-10 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Called the greatest storms on the planet, hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean often cause tremendous social and economic upheaval in the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean. And with the increasing development of coastal areas, the impact of these storms will likely increase. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of North Atlantic hurricanes and what they mean to society. It is intended as an intermediary between hurricane climate research and the users of hurricane information. Topics include the climatology of tropical cyclones in general and those of the North Atlantic in particular; the major North Atlantic hurricanes, focusing on U.S. landfalling storms; the prediction models used in forecasting; and societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including ideas for modeling the relationship between climatological data and analysis in the social and economic sciences.
Download or read book Prediction of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Rainfall written by Beda Nidhi Luitel and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among natural disasters affecting the United States, North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for the highest economic losses and are one of the main causes of fatalities. Although we cannot prevent these storms from occurring, skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity and associated impacts can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. Unfortunately, it is not yet possible to predict heavy rainfall and flooding associated with these storms several months in advance, and the lead time is limited to few days at the most. On the other hand, overall North Atlantic TC activity can be potentially predicted with a six- to nine-month lead time. This thesis focuses on the evaluation of the skill in predicting basin-wide North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time and rainfall with a short lead time. For the seasonal forecast of TC activity, we develop statistical-dynamical forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs using only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as covariates. Our results show that skillful predictions of North Atlantic TC activity are possible starting from November for a TC season that peaks in the August-October months. The short term forecasting of rainfall associated with TC activity is based on five numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Our analyses focused on 15 North Atlantic TCs that made landfall along the U.S. coast over the period of 2007-2012. The skill of the NWP models is quantified by visual examination of the distribution of the errors for the different lead-times, and numerical examination of the first three moments of the error distribution. Based on our results, we conclude that the NWP models can provide skillful forecasts of TC rainfall with lead times up to 48 hours, without a consistently best or worst NWP model.
Download or read book Climatology of 24 hour North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Movements written by George W. Cry and published by . This book was released on 1961 with total page 936 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Pao-Shin Chu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive summary of tropical cyclone variability at time scales from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. Major climate oscillations (Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode and Pacific Decadal) are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed.
Download or read book Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Pao-Shin Chu and published by . This book was released on 2021-12 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Tropical climate has received increased attention over the last 40 years mainly because of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and their associated impacts on a local, regional, and global scale. While the MJO is the most prominent disturbance that operates on the subseasonal time scale (less than 90 days but longer than 10 days), the ENSO is a powerful interplay between the tropical ocean and atmosphere on interannual time scales with a preferred recurrence interval of 2-7 years. Studies show that MJO and ENSO can have a profound effect on global weather systems, such as shifting tropical cyclone (TC) formation location, altering frequency of occurrence, storm tracks, landfall locations, intensity, and lifespan in various ocean basins. There are at least two types of El Niño: the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific types, which modulate regional TC activity in a different manner. In addition to ENSO, other climate modes that also influence TC activity on the interannual time scale include the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Meridional Mode, and Atlantic Meridional Mode. On a longer time scale, TC activity is modulated by the decadal to interdecadal oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific. Aside from TCs, the aforementioned climate modes also alter precipitation and temperatures variations, resulting in drought, flooding, extreme cold or warm conditions, and public health issues in many parts of the world. TC attributes are projected to change over the next 50-100 years under an anthropogenic warming scenario, although uncertainty remains"--
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1851 2006 written by Colin McAdie and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009 written by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-05-22 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season. Wilson, Robert M. Marshall Space Flight Center TROPICAL STORMS; CYCLONES; HURRICANES; FORECASTING; EL NINO; GLOBAL WARMING; STORMS; PERIODIC VARIATIONS; ATLANTIC OCEAN; OSCILLATIONS
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean written by George W. Cry and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin written by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-05-23 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this TP, the trend in North Atlantic basin TC activity, especially as related to the determination of the length of season (LOS) and its possible association with warming surface-air and sea-surface temperature, is revisited. In particular, examined are: (1) the trend in TC activity for the yearly intervals 1945-1965, 1966-1994, and 1995-2012 for TCs having duration NSD greater or equal to 0.25 day, less than 2 days, greater than or equal to 2 days, greater than or equal to 4 days, and greater than or equal to 8 days; (2) the latitudinal and longitudinal genesis locations of the short-lived TC (defined herein as those TCs having duration NSD less than 2 days) for the three yearly intervals; (3) the first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and LOS based on TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (4) the relationship between FSD, LSD, and LOS for TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (5) the surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the interval 1945-2012; (6) the relationship of FSD, LSD, and LOS against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; (7) the relationship of TC activity against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; and (8) the relationship of TC activity against FSD and LOS. This TP represents an update to an earlier study by Wilson concerning the length of the yearly hurricane season. Wilson, Robert M. Marshall Space Flight Center TROPICAL STORMS; CYCLONES; ATLANTIC OCEAN; TRENDS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Download or read book On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity written by Pao-Shin Chu and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-03-10 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a comprehensive summary of research on tropical cyclone variability at various time scales, from intraseasonal and interannual to interdecadal and centennial. It covers the fundamental theory, statistics and numerical modelling techniques used when considering climate variability in relation to tropical cyclone activity. Major climate oscillations including the Madden-Julian, El Niño, Atlantic Meridional Mode, and Pacific Decadal oscillations are covered, and their impacts on tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are discussed. Hurricane landfalls in the United States, Caribbean and East Asia are also considered. Climate models and numerical simulations are used to show how prediction models of tropical cyclones are developed, while looking to the future, particular attention is paid to predicting how tropical cyclones will change in response to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. This book ideal for researchers and practitioners in atmospheric science, climatology, oceanography and civil and environmental engineering.
Download or read book The Hadley Circulation Present Past and Future written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-11-05 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book examines potentially important factors that may have affected the Hadley and Walker Circulations and evaluates changes in the Hadley Circulation and the monsoons as simulated by coupled models of past climate conditions, and predicted future conditions under an enhanced greenhouse effect. This book is meant to serve as a fundamental reference work for current and future researchers, graduate students in the atmospheric sciences and geosciences, and climate specialists involved in interdisciplinary research.
Download or read book Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1871 1992 written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book On the Climate Variability of Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity and Atlantic Hurricane Activity written by Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From a meteorological standpoint, the most important questios one needs to answer about a given tropical cyclone is how strong the winds generated by the event can become. From a climatological standpoint, it is critical to predict tropical cyclone activity, or the collective destructive potential of all tropical cyclones in a given basin and during a given period. Potential intensity (PI) is defined as a thermodynamic bound on tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, and is a good predictor of the intensity of a single event but also of tropical cyclone activity. As such, PI is a useful quantity to help answer both meteorological and climatological pressing questions about tropical cyclones. First, this thesis adresses recent controversies about whether the PI assumptions of inviscid free troposphere and steady-state make it inapplicable. Comparing various forms of the PI bound to the corresponding bounded quantities in low-mixing axisymmetric simulations shows that PI is in fact a valid bound on tropical cyclone intensity. Then, a categorization of definitions of tropical cyclone steady state used in the literature is introduced to clarify the conditions in which simulations can be compared to theories such as PI. It is shown that most intensity theories can be compared to the simulated period surrounding peak tropical cyclone intensity, while theories for the structure of the storm requires the simulated storm to have come into equilibrium with the surrounding environment. Next, turning to climate, a linear model for interannual basin-wide PI variations is developed, which captures almost all the PI variance in reanalysis products and provides a way to partition global and local contributions to PI variations. The model notably shows that tropical North-Atlantic PI variations over the last 40 years have been dominated by local influences. The final part of the thesis evaluates the causes of the Atlantic hurricane drought of the 1970s and 1980s. An anthropogenic nature of the hurricane drought is proposed. Concurrent hemispherically asymmetric anthropogenic sulfate emissions caused a drying of the Sahel region and enhanced the emissions of eolian dust from the Sahara and the Sahel which is shown to be detrimental to hurricane activity.
