Download or read book Stock Returns and Option Prices A Simulation Analysis written by Martin Georg Haas and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2021-08-30 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1.0, Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen, course: Advanced Financing, language: English, abstract: This paper is concerned with analyzing the basic determinants of option prices. These are the information derived from the underlying stock, namely the mean and the volatility of its returns. Therefore, this paper aims at answering the question, what influence stock return mean and volatility have on the respective option prices. This can be important to option traders trying to identify the stocks for which to trade options, by providing an understanding for the foundations of the option pricing and the information those prices provide. To isolate these basic determinants from the other influences, described above as structural and institutional factors, a simulation study is conducted. Section 2 will provide the theoretical framework and simulation methodology for the study. Section 3 describes the used dataset and section 4 presents and discusses the results of the simulation.

Download or read book The Distribution of Individual Stock Returns in a Modified Black scholes Option Pricing Model written by Daniel Lee Richey and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Author's abstract: There have been many attempts to find a model that can accurately price options. These models are built on many assumptions, including which probability distribution stock returns follow. In this paper, we test several distributions to see which best fit the log returns of 20 different companies over a period between November 1, 2006 to October 31, 2011. If a "best" distribution is found, a modified Black-Scholes model will be defined by modifying the Weiner process. We use Monte Carlo simulations to generate estimated prices under specified parameters, and compare these prices to those simulated by the model using the Weiner process. It was found the Student-t distribution did a better job at modeling the larger time intervals and the 3-parameter lognormal did a better job at modeling the smaller time intervals. We were not able to make any definite conclusion due to the cost of purchasing historical option data.

Download or read book The Information Content of Implied Volatilities and Model Free Volatility Expectations written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The volatility information content of stock options for individual firms is measured using option prices for 149 U.S. firms during the period from January 1996 to December 1999. Volatility forecasts defined by historical stock returns, at-the-money (ATM) implied volatilities and model-free (MF) volatility expectations are compared for each firm. The recently developed model-free volatility expectation incorporates information across all strike prices, and it does not require the specification of an option pricing model.Our analysis of ARCH models shows that, for one-day-ahead estimation, historical estimates of conditional variances outperform both the ATM and the MF volatility estimates extracted from option prices for more than one-third of the firms. This result contrasts with the consensus about the informational efficiency of options written on stock indices; several recent studies find that option prices are more informative than daily stock returns when estimating and predicting index volatility. However, for the firms with the most actively traded options, we do find that the option forecasts are nearly always more informative than historical stock returns. When the prediction horizon extends until the expiry date of the options, our regression results show that the option forecasts are more informative than forecasts defined by historical returns for a substantial majority (86%) of the firms. Although the model-free (MF) volatility expectation is theoretically more appealing than alternative volatility estimates and has been demonstrated to be the most accurate predictor of realized volatility by Jiang and Tian (2005) for the Samp;P 500 index, the results for our firms show that the MF expectation only outperforms both the ATM implied volatility and the historical volatility for about one-third of the firms. The firms for which the MF expectation is best are not associated with a relatively high level of trading in away-from-the-money options.

Download or read book An Accuracy and Efficiency Study of the Black Option Pricing Model written by David Leonard Neff and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Forecasting Short Term Stock Returns Using Irregular Pricing Behavior in the Options Market written by Thomas W. Sampson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between today's implied volatility on AMD stock options with tomorrow's return on the underlying. An economic analyis of the options markets' micro-structure is discussed to establish the intuition and the basis behind the relationship. Four seperate models are developed to examine its statistical significance and the ability of options' prices to accurately forecast returns on the underlying security. The hypothesis of the paper is that daily changes in implied volatility can be used to earn higher than expected returns on the underlying stock. I find that implied volatility can be used to increase forecasting accuracy and may proved a means by which the Efficient Markets Hypothesis can be refuted.

Download or read book Analysis of Option Returns in Perfect and Imperfect Markets written by David Salazar Volkmann and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis studies index and equity option returns in perfect and imperfect markets to explain parts of the option mispricing puzzle. Perfect markets exist under informational efficiency, market completeness and frictionless trading. The thesis shows that an option-implied risk-adjusted approach and the standard Black-Scholes model are consistent with empirical mean and volatility of S&P500 put returns and ITM call returns, but not OTM call returns. Imperfect markets exist under market frictions which allow arbitrage-free deviations of option prices from fair value resulting in option retur...

Download or read book Growth Options and Dynamic Risk written by Gregory W. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent asset pricing research claims that quot;real options'quot; models generate dynamic risks related to firm investment policy and provide a rational explanation for size and value effects. We examine the empirical success of these dynamic beta models using both simulations and data from U.S. equity markets. Our simulation analysis shows that estimating dynamic betas is challenging even when the true model is known. In actual data we find little evidence that theories of real growth options explain standard pricing anomalies or conditional pricing puzzles such as SEO underperformance. Stock returns do not have the proper conditional covariances with the market portfolio, even though firm characteristics do behave in accordance with the real options models.

Download or read book A GARCH Option Pricing Model with Filtered Historical Simulation written by Giovanni Barone-Adesi and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new method for pricing options based on GARCH models with filtered historical innovations. In an incomplete market framework, we allow for different distributions of historical and pricing return dynamics, which enhances the model's flexibility to fit market option prices. An extensive empirical analysis based on Samp;P 500 index options shows that our model outperforms other competing GARCH pricing models and ad hoc Black-Scholes models. We show that the flexible change of measure, the asymmetric GARCH volatility, and the nonparametric innovation distribution induce the accurate pricing performance of our model. Using a nonparametric approach, we obtain decreasing state-price densities per unit probability as suggested by economic theory and corroborating our GARCH pricing model. Implied volatility smiles appear to be explained by asymmetric volatility and negative skewness of filtered historical innovations.

Download or read book Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-03-12 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.

Download or read book The Volatility Surface written by Jim Gatheral and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2006-09-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for The Volatility Surface "I'm thrilled by the appearance of Jim Gatheral's new book The Volatility Surface. The literature on stochastic volatility is vast, but difficult to penetrate and use. Gatheral's book, by contrast, is accessible and practical. It successfully charts a middle ground between specific examples and general models--achieving remarkable clarity without giving up sophistication, depth, or breadth." --Robert V. Kohn, Professor of Mathematics and Chair, Mathematical Finance Committee, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University "Concise yet comprehensive, equally attentive to both theory and phenomena, this book provides an unsurpassed account of the peculiarities of the implied volatility surface, its consequences for pricing and hedging, and the theories that struggle to explain it." --Emanuel Derman, author of My Life as a Quant "Jim Gatheral is the wiliest practitioner in the business. This very fine book is an outgrowth of the lecture notes prepared for one of the most popular classes at NYU's esteemed Courant Institute. The topics covered are at the forefront of research in mathematical finance and the author's treatment of them is simply the best available in this form." --Peter Carr, PhD, head of Quantitative Financial Research, Bloomberg LP Director of the Masters Program in Mathematical Finance, New York University "Jim Gatheral is an acknowledged master of advanced modeling for derivatives. In The Volatility Surface he reveals the secrets of dealing with the most important but most elusive of financial quantities, volatility." --Paul Wilmott, author and mathematician "As a teacher in the field of mathematical finance, I welcome Jim Gatheral's book as a significant development. Written by a Wall Street practitioner with extensive market and teaching experience, The Volatility Surface gives students access to a level of knowledge on derivatives which was not previously available. I strongly recommend it." --Marco Avellaneda, Director, Division of Mathematical Finance Courant Institute, New York University "Jim Gatheral could not have written a better book." --Bruno Dupire, winner of the 2006 Wilmott Cutting Edge Research Award Quantitative Research, Bloomberg LP

Download or read book Cross Sectional Stock Option Pricing and Factor Models of Returns written by Mihaela Serban and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is the pricing of index and individual stock options consistent with a factor model of stock returns? To answer this question, we use returns and option prices for a cross-section of stocks and a market index to carry out an integrated estimation of a multivariate stochastic volatility models with systematic factors and idiosyncratic return components. In particular, we estimate both the objective and risk neutral (RN) dynamics of the model using particle filter techniques. For a one-factor quot;market modelquot; of stock returns we find that 1) the market (Samp;P 500) betas of individual stocks are similar under the objective and RN measures, 2) there is a statistically and economically important common factor in the volatility of idiosyncratic returns, 3) the factor loadings of individual stocks on this common component of idiosyncratic volatility are also similar under the objective and RN measures, and 4) both market and common idiosyncratic volatility appear to be priced in option prices.

Download or read book Why Do Option Prices Predict Stock Returns The Role of Price Pressure in the Stock Market written by Luis Goncalves-Pinto and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock and options markets can disagree about a stock's value because of informed trading in options and/or price pressure in the stock. The predictability of stock returns based on this cross- market discrepancy in values is especially strong when accompanied by stock price pressure, and it does not depend on trading in options. We argue that option-implied prices provide an anchor for fundamental stock values that helps to distinguish stock price movements due to pressure versus news. Overall, our results are consistent with stock price pressure being the primary driver of the option price-based stock return predictability.

Download or read book Essays on Portfolio Optimization Simulation and Option Pricing written by Zhibo Jia and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three papers which cover the efficient Monte Carlo simulation in option pricing, the application of realized volatility in trading strategies and geometrical analysis of a four asset mean variance portfolio optimization problem. The first paper studies different efficient simulation methods to price options with different characters such as moneyness and maturity times. The incomplete market environments are also been considered. The second paper uses realized volatility based on high frequency data to improve the volatility trading strategy. The performance is compared with that using the implied volatility. The last paper re-examines the Markowitz's portfolio optimization problem using a general case. It also extends the problem to four assets, it describes the exact mean variance efficient fronter in the weight space and studies the frontier in the mean variance space. The thesis may serve to help our understanding of how to apply numerical and analytical methods to solve financial problems.

Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.

Download or read book On the Irrelevance of Expected Stock Returns in the Pricing of Options in the Binomial Model written by Valeriy Zakamulin and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The option pricing theory is now either a standard or a main part of many financial courses on both intermediate and advanced levels. All the textbooks that include the option pricing theory present a detailed treatment of the binomial model. However, the binomial model, although quite simple and intuitive in appearance, is rather tricky when it comes to its practical implementations and applications. In fact, it is amazing that the students often get totally confused when it finally comes to the issue of the choice of the parameters of the binomial model. The reason for all this confusion lies in the fact that all the textbooks emphasize the irrelevance of the binomial option price from the probabilities of upward and downward movements in the stock price in the objective world, instead of emphasizing the irrelevance of the option price from the expected returns of the underlying stock. Consequently, the main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the irrelevance of expected stock returns in the pricing of options in the binomial model.

Download or read book Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance written by Don L. McLeish and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monte Carlo methods have been used for decades in physics, engineering, statistics, and other fields. Monte Carlo Simulation and Finance explains the nuts and bolts of this essential technique used to value derivatives and other securities. Author and educator Don McLeish examines this fundamental process, and discusses important issues, including specialized problems in finance that Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods can help solve and the different ways Monte Carlo methods can be improved upon. This state-of-the-art book on Monte Carlo simulation methods is ideal for finance professionals and students. Order your copy today.

Download or read book Real Options Analysis Course written by Johnathan Mun and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2003-04-15 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Real Options Analysis Course "Dr. Mun's latest book is a logical extension of the theory and application presented in Real Options Analysis. More specifically, the Real Options Analysis Course presents numerous real options examples and provides the reader with step-by-step problem-solving techniques. After having read the book, readers will better understand the underlying theory and the opportunities for applying real option theory in corporate decision-making." -Chris D. Treharne, President, Gibraltar Business Appraisals, Inc. "This text provides an excellent follow up to Dr. Mun's first book, Real Options Analysis. The cases in Real Options Analysis Course provide numerous examples of how the use of real options and the Real Options Analysis Toolkit software can assist in the valuation of strategic and managerial flexibility in a variety of arenas." -Charles T. Hardy, PhD, Chief Financial Officer & Director of Business Development, Panorama Research, Inc. "Most of us come to real options from the perspective of our own areas of expertise. Mun's great skill with this book is in making real options analysis understandable, relevant, and immediately applicable to the field within which you are working." -Robert Fourt, Partner, Gerald Eve (UK) "Mun provides a practical step-by-step guide to applying simulation and real options analysis-invaluable to those of us who are no longer satisfied with conventional valuation approaches alone." -Fred Kohli, Head of Portfolio Management, Syngenta Crop Protection Ltd. (Switzerland)