Download or read book Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Influences written by Wan Mansor Mahmood and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the dynamics relationship between stock prices and economic variables in six Asian-Pacific selected countries of Malaysia, Korea, Thailand, Hong Kong, Japan, and Australia. The monthly data on stock price indices, foreign exchange rates, consumer price index and industrial production index that spans from January 1993 to December 2002 are used. In particular, we focus our analysis on the long run equilibrium and short run multivariate causality between these variables. The results indicate the existing of a long run equilibrium relationship between and among variables in only four countries, i.e., Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Australia. As for short run relationship, all countries except for Hong Kong and Thailand show some interactions. The Hong Kong shows relationship only between exchange rate and stock price while the Thailand reports significant interaction only between output and stock prices. An accurate estimation of the relationship between the economic variables and stock market behaviour enables the investors - both local and foreign to make effective investment decisions. At the same time, for the policy makers, a precise prediction of this type of relationship may help government agencies in designing policies to encourage more capital inflows into the respective countries' capital market.

Download or read book Indian Stock Returns and Macroeconomics written by Shivi Suhag and published by . This book was released on 2023-07-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Indian stock returns refer to the performance or profitability of the Indian stock market over a certain period. It is a measure of the gains or losses an investor realizes from investing in Indian stocks. Stock returns can be calculated by comparing the current price of a stock with its purchase price, including any dividends received during the holding period.Macroeconomics, on the other hand, is a branch of economics that deals with the overall performance and behavior of the economy as a whole. It focuses on studying aggregates such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), inflation, unemployment, interest rates, and other macroeconomic indicators to understand the functioning of the economy and make policy recommendations.The relationship between stock returns and macroeconomics is complex and intertwined. Macroeconomic factors play a significant role in influencing stock market performance. Here are some key macroeconomic variables that impact Indian stock returns: 1. GDP Growth: High GDP growth is generally associated with increased corporate profits and positive investor sentiment, leading to higher stock returns. Conversely, low or negative GDP growth can dampen investor confidence and result in lower stock returns.2. Inflation: Inflation refers to the general increase in prices of goods and services over time. Moderate inflation can be conducive to stock market performance as it indicates a growing economy. However, high inflation can erode purchasing power and negatively impact corporate profitability, leading to lower stock returns.3. Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates have a direct impact on the cost of borrowing and the attractiveness of different investment options. Lower interest rates generally favor stock market investments as they make equities more attractive relative to fixed-income securities. Conversely, higher interest rates may reduce stock market returns as investors shift towards safer fixed-income investments.4. Monetary Policy: The policies implemented by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), such as adjustments to the repo rate or cash reserve ratio, can influence liquidity and credit conditions in the economy. Accommodative monetary policy measures can stimulate economic growth and boost stock returns, while tight monetary policy can have the opposite effect.5. Fiscal Policy: Government spending, taxation, and fiscal deficit also impact the stock market. Expansionary fiscal policies, such as increased government spending, can stimulate economic activity and have a positive effect on stock returns. Conversely, contractionary fiscal policies may dampen investor sentiment and lead to lower stock returns.It's important to note that stock market returns are also influenced by company-specific factors, market sentiment, investor behavior, and other variables apart from macroeconomic factors. Therefore, analyzing Indian stock returns requires considering a wide range of factors, including both macroeconomic indicators and specific market dynamics.

Download or read book Do MacRoeconomic Variables Have an Effect on the Us Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.

Download or read book Do Macroeconomic Variables have an Effect on the US Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Impact on Stock Market Returns and Volatility written by Antonette Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between stock market returns and selected macroeconomic variables and examine the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on stock market volatility in Sri Lankan stock market. Interest rate, inflation, money supply and exchange rate are selected as a set of exogenous variables to represent the macroeconomic factors that influence the stock market, returns and volatility. The sample includes monthly stock market index and macroeconomics data from 1998 to 2016 covering 228 data points. In achieving research objectives, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) models are specified and estimated.The results of Johansen Juselius cointegration test indicate a long run relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock returns. Particularly, the results of cointegration test suggest that there is a significant negative effect of Treasury bill Rate (TBR) and Exchange Rate (EXR) on stock returns while significant positive long run effect of Money Supply (MSI) / Inflation (INF) on stock returns. The Error Correction Term (ECM) in the VECM model indicates only 4.1 percent of the long run shock adjusted in the short run period and supports the argument of weak form of market efficiency in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), Sri Lanka. Further, the results of the EGARCH model evidence the presence of asymmetric volatility in the monthly stock returns which suggest that the bad news in the CSE has larger effect on the volatility of the stock market than the good news. Similarly, the model establishes that interest rate and money supply create macroeconomic risk to the volatility of the stock market returns in Sri Lankan context. Accordingly, this paper, as a whole, conclusively establishes that the stock returns and market volatility are dependent on macroeconomic variables. These findings hold managerial and policy implication at least to the Sri Lankan policy makers, market regulators, investors and market analysts. The test results suggest the information inefficiency in the Colombo stock market. Further, Investors in the market should look at the systematic risks revealed by the money supply and short term interest rates when structuring portfolios and diversification strategies. Policymakers may need to take these macroeconomic variables into account when formulating economic and financial policies.

Download or read book Stock Market Response to Unexpected Macroeconomic News written by Mahdi Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-08-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and Australian stock returns over the period 1980-1991. The results suggest that stock returns are positively correlated with any surprise news in the current account deficit, the exchange rate and growth rate of real GDP, and negatively correlated with surprise news about the inflation rate and interest rates. Stock returns are also positively correlated with the unexpected unemployment rate and negatively correlated to revisions in the expected unemployment rate. The results furthermore suggest that market portfolios can detect the impact of common economic shocks better than the portfolios of the two main subsectors of the market.

Download or read book Business Economics Financial Sciences and Management written by Min Zhu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-02-11 with total page 860 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A series of papers on business, economics, and financial sciences, management selected from International Conference on Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management are included in this volume. Management in all business and organizational activities is the act of getting people together to accomplish desired goals and objectives using available resources efficiently and effectively. Management comprises planning, organizing, staffing, leading or directing, and controlling an organization (a group of one or more people or entities) or effort for the purpose of accomplishing a goal. Resourcing encompasses the deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources. The proceedings of BEFM2011 focuses on the various aspects of advances in Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management and provides a chance for academic and industry professionals to discuss recent progress in the area of Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management. It is hoped that the present book will be useful to experts and professors, both specialists and graduate students in the related fields.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns written by Mark J. Flannery and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock market returns are known to be significantly correlated with inflation and money growth. The impact of real macroeconomic variables on aggregate equity returns has been difficult to establish, perhaps because their effects are neither linear nor time-invariant. We estimate a GARCH model of daily equity returns, in which realized returns and their conditional volatility depend on seventeen macro series' announcements. We find six candidates for priced factors: three nominal (CPI, PPI, and a Monetary Aggregate) and three real (the Balance of Trade, the Employment Report, and Housing Starts).Notably absent from this list are popular measures of overall economic activity, such as Industrial Production or GNP.

Download or read book The Economics of Adjustment and Growth written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by La Editorial, UPR. This book was released on 2004-09-30 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a systematic and coherent framework for understanding the interactions between the micro and macro dimensions of economic adjustment policies; that is, it explores short-run macroeconomic management and structural adjustment policies aimed at promoting economic growth. It emphasizes the importance of structural microeconomic characteristics in the transmission of policy shocks and the response of the economy to adjustment policies. It has particular relevance to the economics of developing countries. The book is directed to economists interested in an overview of the economics of reform; economists in international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank, dealing with development; and economists in developing countries. It is also a text for advanced undergraduate students pursuing a degree in economic policy and management and students in political science and public policy.

Download or read book Trade Investment and Economic Growth written by Pooja Lakhanpal and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-05-10 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book contributes to the growing literature pertaining to empirical and policy issues in international trade, foreign capital flows and issues in finance, implications for India and emerging economies related to trade and development interface, and analysis of sector level growth and development in India. Further, the focus is on the policy aspects of these themes and their role in fostering economic development in the context of India and other emerging market economies. The discourse focuses mainly on empirical work and econometric details. The relevant issues are investigated using state of the art techniques such as gravity models, panel co-integration, generalized hyperbolic distributions, SEM, FMOLS and Probit models. In addition, detailed literature survey, discussions on data availability, issues related to statistical estimation techniques and a theoretical background, ensure that each chapter significantly contributes to the ever-growing literature on international trade and capital flows. The readers shall find an engaging dialogue on the crucial role played by policy and the trade-capital flows-growth experience of emerging economies. The book is relevant for those who are interested in contemporary issues in trade, growth and finance as well as for students of advanced econometrics who may benefit from the analytical and econometric exposition. The empirical evidences provided here could serve as ready reference for academicians, researchers and policy makers, particularly in emerging economies facing similar challenges.

Download or read book Macroeconomics and Anomalies as Determinants of Stock Returns written by Samridha Jung Rana and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is no general support to explain the strong correlation between the macroeconomic variables and the Standard & Poor 500 index fund returns. This thesis sheds some light on how the macroeconomic variables have impacted the monthly returns on the Standard & Poor 500 over the last decade. Firstly, we introduce the Standard & Poor 500 index and various macroeconomic factors influencing the U.S. economy over the years. Subsequently, investigating the casualty relationship between the monthly rate of returns, the consumer-producer index, the industrial producer index, Money Supply, Unemployment, inflation rate, and the exchange rate. The methodology used in this study includes a stepwise multiple regression model, Johansen cointegration test, Dickey-fuller augmented test, Phillip perron test, and the Granger Causality test. Furthermore, investigating stock market anomalies that have been verified immensely, such as the day-of-the-week Effect and month-of-the-year Effect, has also been explored to see whether those anomalies still exist in recent times.

Download or read book Sensitivity Analysis of Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Returns written by Nisha Nabila and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2015-12-03 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns has been the subject of increased theoretical and empirical investigation in literature. This book aims to complement the literature by extending this presumed relationship between stock returns and a set of pre-determined domestic and global macroeconomic variables to the emerging stock markets of Bangladesh and India. Evidence for this relationship is drawn in this study through the research methods of Vector Autoregression and by applying empirical tests like Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction Models. Empirical findings of this research will provide further insights into understanding the underlying macroeconomic factors that can significantly impact the stock returns of selected stock markets of both Bangladesh and India. This study can also assist various academicians, researchers, policy makers and particularly the governments of these two developing countries to consider the influence of macroeconomic factors when regulating their stock markets, its returns and its policies.

Download or read book Black Monday and the Future of Financial Markets written by Robert J. Barro and published by Irwin Professional Publishing. This book was released on 1989 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Macroeconomic Factors Influence on New European Countries Stock Returns written by Aristeidis Samitas and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether current and future domestic and international macroeconomic variables can explain long and short run stock returns in four quot;newquot; European countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). quot;Oldquot; western European countries (U.K., France, Italy and Germany) are included in the empirical analysis, whilst USA is considered as a quot;foreign global influencequot;. Using the present value model of stock prices and a complete range of cointegration and causality tests, it is found that quot;newquot; European stock markets are not perfectly integrated with foreign financial markets, while domestic economic activity and the German factor are more influential on these stock markets than the American global factor.

Download or read book Macro Economic Variables and Stock Prices in India written by Mubasher Hassan and published by LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. This book was released on 2014-10-31 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The government's conduct of macroeconomic policy plays a unique and pivotal role in managing economic stability at the national level.As macroeconomic policies that are properly crafted and implemented help overcome many constraints like information asymmetry and coordination failures amongst regulatory institutions and markets, besides; a stable macroeconomic environment enables financial intermediaries to employ savings in productive activities thereby offering handsome returns to investors. Owing to the growth and development of financial markets across emerging economies, particularly India with its domestic saving on the rise, the policy makers, financial markets professionals, research scholars and academia are faced with unprecedented challenges when it comes to understanding volatility in stock market returns, in this direction this book focuses on the influence of select macroeconomic variables on stock market returns in India and will be helpful for business and economics graduates in understanding interaction between various macroeconomic fundamentals and can also serve as first step for research scholars in the field of financial economics.

Download or read book Are Macroeconomic Factors Adequate Proxies for Systematic Influences in Stock Returns written by Jan Szczygielski and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether pre-specified macroeconomic factors can adequately proxy for the pervasive influences in stock returns, within the context of macroeconomic linear factor models motivated by the multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Variation in stock returns can be attributed to systematic and idiosyncratic sources of variation. As idiosyncratic factors can be diversified away, systematic variation will remain and the only factors that will be relevant will be those representative of systematic influences. In this study, systematic influences are quantified by statistically derived factor scores which are then related to a set of carefully selected macroeconomic factors. The identification of macroeconomic factors that proxy for systematic influences in returns is a challenge in itself. Once identified, macroeconomic factors are found to be poor and unstable proxies for systematic influences. The use of a residual market factor, an often-applied solution the factor omission problem in linear factor models motivated by the APT, does not significantly improve the approximation of factor scores. Macroeconomic factors are unlikely to provide a complete representation of the return generating process. Researchers should recognize that macroeconomic linear factor models are likely to be underspecified, even if a residual market factor is included.

Download or read book Macroeconomic Influences on Optimal Asset Allocation written by T. J. Flavin and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: