Download or read book Stock Return and Cash Flow Predictability written by Tim Bollerslev and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Predictability of returns and cash flows written by Ralph S. J. Koijen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries.
Download or read book Cash Flow News and the Investment Effect in the Cross Section of Stock Returns written by Mike Qinghao Mao and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides novel evidence that cash flow news quantitatively explains the investment effect in the cross-section of stock returns. The negative return predictability of asset growth, investment growth, and accruals is evident only through the cash flow news component of returns. The cash flow news returns associated with investment-sorted portfolios exhibit a reversal from the pre-formation period to the post-formation period. Such a return reversal is in line with reversals in firm fundamentals and becomes stronger for stocks with higher information uncertainty. Our findings are consistent with the expectational errors hypothesis and fail to support the risk-based explanation for the investment effect.
Download or read book Predicting Stock Returns written by David G McMillan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 141 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of asset price movement. It examines different aspects of stock return predictability, the interaction between stock return and dividend growth predictability, the relationship between stocks and bonds, and the resulting implications for asset price movement. By contributing to our understanding of the factors that cause price movement, this book will be of benefit to researchers, practitioners and policy makers alike.
Download or read book Stock Returns written by George I. Ellison and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In finance, rate of return (ROR) is the ratio of money gained or lost on an investment relative to the amount of money invested. This amount of money gained or lost may be referred to as interest, profit/loss, gain/loss, or net income/loss. The money invested may be referred to as the asset, capital, principal, or the cost basis of the investment. ROI is usually expressed as a percentage rather than a fraction. Investments generate cash flow to the investor to compensate the investor for the time value of money. The main factors that are used by investors to determine the rate of return at which they are willing to invest money include estimates of future inflation rates, estimates regarding the risk of the investment and whether or not the investors want the money available ("liquid") for other uses. This new book gathers the latest research from around the world on this topic.
Download or read book Stock Return Predictability written by Arthur Ritter and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2015-05-27 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 17 (1,3), University of St Andrews (School of Management), course: Investment and Portfolio Management, language: English, abstract: Empirical evidence of stock return predictability obtained by financial ratios or macroeconomic factors has received substantial attention and remains a controversial topic to date. This is no surprise given that the existence of return predictability is not only of interest to practitioners but also introduces severe implications for financial models of risk and return. Founded on the assumption of efficient capital markets, research on capital asset pricing models has instigated this emergence of stock return predictability factors. Analysing these factors categorically, this paper will provide a balanced discussion of advocates as well as sceptics of stock return predictability. This essay will commence by firstly outlining the fundamental assumptions of an efficient capital market and its implications for return predictability. Subsequently, a thorough focus will be placed on the most significant predictability factors, including fundamental financial ratios and macroeconomic indicators as well as the validity of sampling methods used to attain return forecasts. Lastly this essay will reflect on the findings while proposing areas of further research.
Download or read book The Role of Accruals in Predicting Future Cash Flows and Stock Returns written by Francois Brochet and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We revisit the role of the cash and accrual components of accounting earnings in predicting future cash flows using out-of-sample predictions, firm-specific regression estimates, and different levels of aggregation of the dependent variable, with market value of equity as a proxy for all future cash flows. We find that, on average, accruals improve upon current cash flow from operations in predicting future cash flows. As accruals' contribution to the prediction of future cash flows varies significantly across firm-quarters, we proceed to investigating determinants of accruals' predictive ability for future cash flows. We find that positive accruals are more likely to improve upon current cash flow in predicting future cash flows. Accruals' contribution is also increasing in cash flow volatility and decreasing in the magnitude of discretionary accruals and of special items. Finally, portfolios formed on stock return predictions using information from current CFO and accruals yield significantly positive returns on average, as opposed to CFO alone. Hence, investors using predictions based on current accounting data to pick stocks are better off taking accruals into account. We also find that Sloan's (1996) accrual anomaly is related to our accrual contribution anomaly. Indeed, when accruals' contribution to future cash flow prediction is the highest, the accrual anomaly vanishes.
Download or read book Time Varying Predictability for Stock Returns Dividend Growth and Consumption Growth written by David G. McMillan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using a state-space model, this paper examines time-variation in the predictive regressions for stock returns, dividend growth and consumption growth. Moreover, we linked time-variation explicitly to movements in economic factors that can account for risk and cash flow. Results support the view that stock return predictability is enhanced when risk is high (negative growth, higher volatility and positive growth/return covariance). In contrast, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability is enhanced during economic expansions. These results are supported by sub-sample analysis and a VAR approach. Furthermore, these latter exercises may uncover differences in the stock return predictability relationship when viewed over different time horizons. Overall, the paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the different nature of returns predictability, which arises largely through the risk channel and dividend and consumption growth predictability, which arise through the cash flow channel.
Download or read book Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing written by Shouyang Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In our daily life, almost every family owns a portfolio of assets. This portfolio could contain real assets such as a car, or a house, as well as financial assets such as stocks, bonds or futures. Portfolio theory deals with how to form a satisfied portfolio among an enormous number of assets. Originally proposed by H. Markowtiz in 1952, the mean-variance methodology for portfolio optimization has been central to the research activities in this area and has served as a basis for the development of modem financial theory during the past four decades. Follow-on work with this approach has born much fruit for this field of study. Among all those research fruits, the most important is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) proposed by Sharpe in 1964. This model greatly simplifies the input for portfolio selection and makes the mean-variance methodology into a practical application. Consequently, lots of models were proposed to price the capital assets. In this book, some of the most important progresses in portfolio theory are surveyed and a few new models for portfolio selection are presented. Models for asset pricing are illustrated and the empirical tests of CAPM for China's stock markets are made. The first chapter surveys ideas and principles of modeling the investment decision process of economic agents. It starts with the Markowitz criteria of formulating return and risk as mean and variance and then looks into other related criteria which are based on probability assumptions on future prices of securities.
Download or read book Stock Returns Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy written by Alex D. Patelis and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines whether shifts in the stance of monetary policy can account for the observed predictability in excess stock returns. Using long-horizon regressions and short-horizon vector auto-regressions, the paper concludes that monetary policy variables are significant predictors of future returns, though they cannot fully account for observed stock return predictability. I undertake variance decompositions to investigate how monetary policy affects the individual components of excess returns (risk-free discount rates, risk premia, or cash flows).
Download or read book Credit Conditions and Stock Return Predictability written by Sudheer Chava and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze U.S. stock return predictability using a measure of credit standards (Standards) derived from the Federal Reserve Board's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices. Standards is a strong predictor of stock returns at a business cycle frequency, especially in the post-1990 data period. Empirically, a tightening of Standards predicts lower future stock returns. Standards performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample and is robust to a host of consistency checks. Standards captures stock return predictability at a business cycle frequency and is driven primarily by the ability of Standards to predict cash flow news.
Download or read book Payout Yields and Stock Return Predictability written by Gregory W. Eaton and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We compare the stock return forecasting performance of alternative payout yields. The net payout yield produces more accurate forecasts relative to alternatives, including the traditional dividend yield. This remains true even after excluding several years during the Great Depression when issuance was unusually high. The measure of cash flow used to form the yield matters economically. Long-term investors' hedging demand for stock is considerably reduced when net payout, rather than dividends, serves as the cash flow measure. An agent relying on an incorrect payout measure is willing to pay an economically significant "management fee" to switch to the optimal policy.
Download or read book Are Dividends and Stock Returns Predictable New Evidence Using M A Cash Flows written by Riccardo Sabbatucci and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate dividend growth is widely thought to be unpredictable by the dividend price ratio. I show that this lack of predictability is related to the measurement of dividends. If M&A cash flows are taken into account, the adjusted R2 from a regression of dividend growth on the dividend price ratio goes from being negative (-1.18%) to being positive (17.54%) and coefficients become highly statistically significant. Strong improvements are also found for consumption growth (2.10% to 11.76%) and returns (1.86% to 4.40%). Out-of-sample R2 for dividend growth and returns are large and statistically significant. I also show that dividend price variation is fundamentally linked to cash flows news and not only to discount rate news. Lastly, I find stronger predictability in industries with the largest M&A activity.
Download or read book Predicting Firm Level Stock Returns written by David G. McMillan and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the predictive ability of several stock price ratios, stock return dispersion and distribution for individual firm level stock returns. Analysis typically focusses on market level returns, however, for the asset pricing model that underlies predictability to hold, firm-level predictability should also be present. In addition, we examine the economic content of predictability by considering whether the predictive coefficient has the theoretically correct sign and whether it is related to future output growth. Movement in stock returns should reflect investor expectations regarding future economic conditions. While stock returns are often too noisy to act as predictors for future economic behaviour, factors that predict stock returns should equally have predictive power for output growth. In our analysis, we use the time-varying predictive coefficient to predict output growth, as the coefficient reflects the sensitivity of stock returns to the predictor variable and thus can be regarded as investors' confidence in the predictive relation. The results suggest that several stock price ratios have predictive power for individual firm stock returns, exhibit the correct coefficient sign and has predictive power for output growth. Each of these ratios has a measure of fundamentals dividend by the stock price and has a positive predictive relation with stock returns and output growth. This implies that as investors expect future economic conditions to improve and earnings and dividends to rise, so expected stock returns will increase. This supports the stock return predictive relation that arises through the cash flow channel.
Download or read book Cash Flow Return on Investment and Stock Returns written by Maksym Gerasymchuk and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Effect of Contextual Factors on the Information Content of Cash Flows in Explaining Stock Prices the Case of Amman Stock Exchange written by Ali M. Al-Attar and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article aims to determine which is better earnings or cash flows as performance measure. We follow the more direct approach used in several recent U.S. studies, in which earnings and cash flows are considered as competing variables. Specifically, our methodology is a development of the study of Dechow (1994). We provide a replication of her main analysis, and then extend this to deal with the effect of earnings permanence, earnings growth and firm size on the value relevance of cash flow and earnings. Our study provides an evidence on the relevance of cash flow figures for investors in their investment decision in an emerging stock market. The study covers the case of Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and employs data on a sample of industrial firms. The time horizon of this study includes the period of 1993-2001. The results of the current study indicate that earnings and cash flows have information content regarding the prediction of future cash flows. Cash flows and earnings separately have a significant association with stock return. The results show that there is no significant difference between the ability of earnings and cash flows in explaining the variation in stock return. Furthermore, as the earnings growth is low and the firm's size is small, the operating cash flow considered better than earnings as performance measure.
Download or read book Stock Return Dividend Growth and Consumption Growth Predictability Across Markets and Time written by David G. McMillan and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper links variation in the predictive regressions for stock returns, dividend growth and consumption growth to economic and market factors. The nature of these links can reveal whether movement in asset prices occurs primarily through the discount rate (risk-free rate or risk premium) or cash flow (economic conditions) channel, while they also help explain the mixed results for predictability reported in the literature. Variation is examined through cross-sectional regressions across fifteen markets and over time using rolling regressions. The cross-sectional and time-varying parameters are regressed against output growth, interest rates and inflation as well as market variables using fixed effects panel as well as both OLS and logit approaches. Panel and time-series predictive regressions based on two approaches that seek to identify periods of high expected returns (high risk premium) are also considered. The key implication for asset pricing is that although movement occurs through both channels, stock return predictability is more dominated by the discount rate channel and consumption growth predictability more so by the cash flow channel. Intuitively, such a difference may arise as investors and households rebalance their asset holdings and consumption at different speeds. There is also some evidence of money illusion through the inflation variable.
