Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control Approach to International Finance Foreign Debt written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Stochastic Optimal Control Approach to International Finance and Foreign Debt written by Wendell Helms Fleming and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control International Finance and Debt Crises written by Jerome L. Stein and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2006-04-06 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth and current account balances, in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control the author derives benchmarks for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both thereturn on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate - the "natural real exchange rate" NATREX - is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions.* What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis?* What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess" debt that increases the probability of or a debt crisis?* What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate?The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises and debt crises in emerging markets.
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control and the U S Financial Debt Crisis written by Jerome L. Stein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-30 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC)—a mathematical theory concerned with minimizing a cost (or maximizing a payout) pertaining to a controlled dynamic process under uncertainty—has proven incredibly helpful to understanding and predicting debt crises and evaluating proposed financial regulation and risk management. Stochastic Optimal Control and the U.S. Financial Debt Crisis analyzes SOC in relation to the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, and offers a detailed framework depicting why such a methodology is best suited for reducing financial risk and addressing key regulatory issues. Topics discussed include the inadequacies of the current approaches underlying financial regulations, the use of SOC to explain debt crises and superiority over existing approaches to regulation, and the domestic and international applications of SOC to financial crises. Principles in this book will appeal to economists, mathematicians, and researchers interested in the U.S. financial debt crisis and optimal risk management.
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control International Finance Debt written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control International Finance and Debt written by Wendell Helms Fleming and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applications of Stochastic Optimal Control to Economics and Finance written by Salvatore Federico and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-23 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a world dominated by uncertainty, modeling and understanding the optimal behavior of agents is of the utmost importance. Many problems in economics, finance, and actuarial science naturally require decision makers to undertake choices in stochastic environments. Examples include optimal individual consumption and retirement choices, optimal management of portfolios and risk, hedging, optimal timing issues in pricing American options, and investment decisions. Stochastic control theory provides the methods and results to tackle all such problems. This book is a collection of the papers published in the Special Issue "Applications of Stochastic Optimal Control to Economics and Finance", which appeared in the open access journal Risks in 2019. It contains seven peer-reviewed papers dealing with stochastic control models motivated by important questions in economics and finance. Each model is rigorously mathematically funded and treated, and the numerical methods are employed to derive the optimal solution. The topics of the book's chapters range from optimal public debt management to optimal reinsurance, real options in energy markets, and optimal portfolio choice in partial and complete information settings. From a mathematical point of view, techniques and arguments of dynamic programming theory, filtering theory, optimal stopping, one-dimensional diffusions and multi-dimensional jump processes are used.
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control International Finance and Debt Crises written by Jerome L. Stein and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2006-04-06 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the interaction between equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt, endogenous optimal growth and current account balances, in a world of uncertainty. The theoretical parts result from interdisciplinary research between economics and applied mathematics. From the economic theory and the mathematics of stochastic optimal control the author derives benchmarks for the optimal debt and equilibrium real exchange rate in an environment where both the return on capital and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. The theoretically derived equilibrium real exchange rate - the "natural real exchange rate" NATREX - is where the real exchange rate is heading. These benchmarks are applied to answer the following questions. * What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a significant depreciation or a currency crisis? * What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess" debt that increases the probability of or a debt crisis? * What is the interaction between an excess debt and a misaligned exchange rate? The theory is applied to evaluate the Euro exchange rate, the exchange rates of the transition economies, the sustainability of U.S. current account deficits, and derives warning signals of the Asian crises and debt crises in emerging markets.
Download or read book Country Debt Risk written by Wendell H. Fleming and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data on the credit rating of bonds issued in the first half of the 1990s suggest that investors in emerging market securities paid little attention to credit risk, or that they were comfortable with the high level of credit risk that they were incurring. The literature in international finance concerning inter-temporal optimization in discrete time makes assumptions that imply certainty equivalence. Example: If the expected productivity of capital is a constant that exceeds the interest rate, investment and debt are maximal. There is a need for a "paradigm shift" that involves greater analytic emphasis on the risks associated with the reliance on short-term debt for otherwise creditworthy borrowers. Using stochastic optimal control techniques, we develop a paradigm for risk management, with the constraint that there be no default on short- term foreign currency denominated debt. We solve for the constrained optimal investment and external debt in both a finite horizon discrete time and an infinite horizon continuous time context. We thereby derive benchmarks to compare the actual with the constrained optimal debt. The probability of default/rescheduling increases when our constrained optimality conditions are violated. The main reason for a deviation between the actual debt and the optimal debt is the moral hazard that has been stressed in the literature on crises. The government provides implicit insurance that induces firms to ignore/underemphasize risk. Bubbles tend to occur. However, when the shocks occur, the government cannot fulfill its commitments.
Download or read book Optimal Debt and Endogenous Growth in Models of International Finance written by Jerome L. Stein and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the bond rating agencies did not anticipate the crises in Asia 1997-98 and in Argentina 2001. With this statement in mind, we consider some multi-stage inter-temporal stochastic optimisation models in international finance that imply theoretically founded and empirically measurable Early Warning Signals. The mathematical technique is dynamic programming/stochastic optimal control (DP/SOC). The variables of interest are the optimal foreign debt, consumption, capital and the growth rate of GDP. They are used as benchmarks of economic performance. By comparing the actual debt to the optimal debt we derive a measure of the sustainability of the debt and vulnerability to default problems. The two sources of uncertainty - the productivity of capital and the real interest rate on the foreign debt - are modeled as stochastic processes. Specific applications of the DP/SOC techniques are given for country defaults in Asia and Latin America, and the US current account deficits.
Download or read book Country Debt Risk written by Jerome L. Stein and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data on the credit rating of bonds issued in the first half of the 1990s suggest that investors in emerging market securities paid little attention to credit risk, or that they were comfortable with the high level of credit risk that they were incurring. The literature in international finance concerning inter-temporal optimization in discrete time makes assumptions that imply certainty equivalence. Example: If the expected productivity of capital is a constant that exceeds the interest rate, investment and debt are maximal. There is a need for a quot;paradigm shiftquot; that involves greater analytic emphasis on the risks associated with the reliance on short-term debt for otherwise creditworthy borrowers.Using stochastic optimal control techniques, we develop a paradigm for risk management, with the constraint that there be no default on short-term foreign currency denominated debt. We solve for the constrained optimal investment and external debt in both a finite horizon discrete time and an infinite horizon continuous time context. We thereby derive benchmarks to compare the actual with the constrained optimal debt. The probability of default/rescheduling increases when our constrained optimality conditions are violated.The main reason for a deviation between the actual debt and the optimal debt is the moral hazard that has been stressed in the literature on crises. The government provides implicit insurance that induces firms to ignore/underemphasize risk. Bubbles tend to occur. However, when the shocks occur, the government cannot fulfill its commitments.
Download or read book Stochastic optimal control in finance written by Mete Soner and published by Edizioni della Normale. This book was released on 2005-10-01 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the extended version of the Cattedra Galileiana I gave in April 2003 in Scuola Normale, Pisa. In these notes, I give a very quick introduction to stochastic optimal control and the dynamic programming approach to control. This is done through several important examples that arise in mathematical finance and economics. The choice of problems is driven by my own research and the desire to illustrate the use of dynamical programming and viscosity solutions. In particular, a great emphasis is given to the problem of super-replication as it provides a usual application of these methods.
Download or read book Application of Stochastic Optimal Control to Financial Market Debt Crises written by Jerome L. Stein and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Applicaton of Stochastic Optimal Control to Financial Market Debt Crises written by Jerome L. Stein and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This interdisciplinary paper explains how mathematical techniques of stochastic optimal control can be applied to the recent subprime mortgage crisis. Why did the financial markets fail to anticipate the recent debt crisis, despite the large literature in mathematical finance concerning optimal portfolio allocation and stopping rules? The uncertainty concerns the capital gain, the return on capital and the interest rate. An optimal debt ratio is derived where the drift is probabilistic but subject to economic constraints. The crises occurred because the market neglected to consider pertinent economic constraints in the dynamic stochastic optimization. The first constraint is that the firm should not be viewed in isolation. The optimizer should be the entire industry. The second economic constraint concerns the modeling of the drift of the price of the asset. The vulnerability of the borrowing firm to shocks from the capital gain, the return to capital or the interest rate, does not depend upon the actual debt/net worth per se. Instead it increases in proportion to the difference between the Actual and Optimal debt ratio, called the excess debt. A general measure of excess debt is derived and I show that it is an early warning signal of the recent crisis.
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control and the U S Financial Debt Crisis written by Jerome L. Stein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-30 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC)—a mathematical theory concerned with minimizing a cost (or maximizing a payout) pertaining to a controlled dynamic process under uncertainty—has proven incredibly helpful to understanding and predicting debt crises and evaluating proposed financial regulation and risk management. Stochastic Optimal Control and the U.S. Financial Debt Crisis analyzes SOC in relation to the 2008 U.S. financial crisis, and offers a detailed framework depicting why such a methodology is best suited for reducing financial risk and addressing key regulatory issues. Topics discussed include the inadequacies of the current approaches underlying financial regulations, the use of SOC to explain debt crises and superiority over existing approaches to regulation, and the domestic and international applications of SOC to financial crises. Principles in this book will appeal to economists, mathematicians, and researchers interested in the U.S. financial debt crisis and optimal risk management.
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control Modeling of Debt Crises written by Jerome L. Stein and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Stochastic Optimal Control Modeling of Debt Crises written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
