Download or read book Stochastic Models of Economic Fluctuations written by Leonid Hurwicz and published by . This book was released on 1944 with total page 11 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics written by Masanao Aoki and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-12-20 with total page 283 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has two components: stochastic dynamics and stochastic random combinatorial analysis. The first discusses evolving patterns of interactions of a large but finite number of agents of several types. Changes of agent types or their choices or decisions over time are formulated as jump Markov processes with suitably specified transition rates: optimisations by agents make these rates generally endogenous. Probabilistic equilibrium selection rules are also discussed, together with the distributions of relative sizes of the bases of attraction. As the number of agents approaches infinity, we recover deterministic macroeconomic relations of more conventional economic models. The second component analyses how agents form clusters of various sizes. This has applications for discussing sizes or shares of markets by various agents which involve some combinatorial analysis patterned after the population genetics literature. These are shown to be relevant to distributions of returns to assets, volatility of returns, and power laws.

Download or read book Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Large Open Economy written by Stephen B. DeLoach and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Economics written by Gerhard Tintner and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic Economics: Stochastic Processes, Control, and Programming presents some aspects of economics from a stochastic or probabilistic point of view. The application of stochastic processes to the theory of economic development, stochastic control theory, and various aspects of stochastic programming is discussed. Comprised of four chapters, this book begins with a short survey of the stochastic view in economics, followed by a discussion on discrete and continuous stochastic models of economic development. The next chapter focuses on methods of stochastic control and their application to dynamic economic models, with emphasis on those aspects connected especially with the theory of quantitative economic policy. Some basic operational problems of applying stochastic control, particularly in economic systems and organizations for problems such as dynamic resource allocation, growth planning, and economic coordination are considered. The last chapter is devoted to stochastic programming, paying particular attention to the decision rule theory of operations research under the chance-constrained model and a method of incorporating reliability measures into a systems reliability model. This book will be of interest to economists, statisticians, applied mathematicians, operations researchers, and systems engineers.

Download or read book Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations written by Robert Graham King and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book The Terms of Trade and Economic Fluctuations written by Mr.Enrique G. Mendoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-11-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.

Download or read book Stochastic Modeling in Economics and Finance written by Jitka Dupacova and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-30 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Part I, the fundamentals of financial thinking and elementary mathematical methods of finance are presented. The method of presentation is simple enough to bridge the elements of financial arithmetic and complex models of financial math developed in the later parts. It covers characteristics of cash flows, yield curves, and valuation of securities. Part II is devoted to the allocation of funds and risk management: classics (Markowitz theory of portfolio), capital asset pricing model, arbitrage pricing theory, asset & liability management, value at risk. The method explanation takes into account the computational aspects. Part III explains modeling aspects of multistage stochastic programming on a relatively accessible level. It includes a survey of existing software, links to parametric, multiobjective and dynamic programming, and to probability and statistics. It focuses on scenario-based problems with the problems of scenario generation and output analysis discussed in detail and illustrated within a case study.

Download or read book Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics written by Masanao Aoki and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book A Discrete stochastic Model of Economic Production and a Model of Production Fluctuations theory and Empirical Evidence written by Amos Golan and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Stochastic Models of Control and Economic Dynamics written by Vadim Iosifovich Arkin and published by London : Academic Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is devoted to a specific problem in the general theory of automatic control -- sequential control under conditions of incomplete information. The main results concern the case in which at each moment of (continuous) time only a finite number of controls are admissible and the results of control action are represented by realizations of random variables whose distributions at a given control correspond to one of several alternative hypotheses. The analysis is conducted in a Bayesian framework.

Download or read book Common Stochastic Trends Common Cycles and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Federal Reserve Board presents the full text of an article entitled "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," by Chang-Jin Kim and Jeremy Piger. The article discusses the nature of business cycle asymmetry using a dynamic factor model of output, investment, and consumption.

Download or read book Common Stochastic Trends Common Cycles and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper investigates the nature of business cycle asymmetry using a dynamic factor model of output, investment, and consumption. We first identify a common stochastic trend and a common transitory component by embedding the permanent income hypothesis within a simple growth model. We then investigate two types of asymmetry commonly identified in U.S. business cycle dynamics: (1) Infrequent negative permanent shocks, modeled as shifts in the growth rate of the common stochastic trend and (2) infrequent negative transitory shocks, modeled as "plucking" deviations from the common stochastic trend. Tests of marginal significance suggest both types of asymmetry were present in post-war recessions, although the shifts in trend are less severe than the received literature suggests."

Download or read book Assessing Rational Expectations written by Roger Guesnerie and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001-04-13 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). In this book Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). He focuses on the multiplicity question that arises in (infinite horizon) Rational Expectation models and considers the implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. The REH, which dominates the economic modeling of expectations in most fields of formalized economic theory, is often associated with an optimistic view of the working of the markets—a view that Guesnerie scrutinizes closely. The book is divided into four parts. The first part uses the framework of simple models to characterize the stochastic processes that trigger self-fulfilling prophecies and examines the connections between periodic equilibria (cycles) and stochastic equilibria (sunspots). (A sunspot is a random shock uncorrelated with underlying economic fundamentals.) The second part views sunspot equilibria as overreactions triggered by small variations of intrinsic variables—rather than as fluctuations with no trigger—and looks at the consequences for a monetary theory à la Lucas. The third part develops the basic theory to encompass more complex, multidimensional systems. It focuses in particular on the special class of equilibria generating small fluctuations around a steady state. Broadening the scope, the fourth part looks at the stability of cycles, sunspots in systems with memory, and current research on rational expectations.

Download or read book Economic Fluctuations and Forecasting written by Vincent Su and published by Addison-Wesley. This book was released on 1996 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By explaining how, by how much, and why economics fluctuate during different stages of the business cycle, this work teaches students how to use, interpret and make macroeconomic forecasts while showing them the advantages and shortcomings of various forecasting methods. The book reviews the procedures used to construct econometric models and their general applications such as sensitivity studies and policy simulations with an emphasis on empirical evidence. It also examines the important role of macroeconomic data in economic fluctuations and forecasting, as well as the part played historically by business cycles in the US and the different theories that explain these cycles.

Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling written by Howard M. Taylor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.

Download or read book Essentials of Econophysics Modelling written by Frantisek Slanina and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a course in methods and models rooted in physics and used in modelling economic and social phenomena. It covers the discipline of econophysics, which creates an interface between physics and economics. Besides the main theme, it touches on the theory of complex networks and simulations of social phenomena in general. After a brief historical introduction, the book starts with a list of basic empirical data and proceeds to thorough investigation of mathematical and computer models. Many of the models are based on hypotheses of the behaviour of simplified agents. These comprise strategic thinking, imitation, herding, and the gem of econophysics, the so-called minority game. At the same time, many other models view the economic processes as interactions of inanimate particles. Here, the methods of physics are especially useful. Examples of systems modelled in such a way include books of stock-market orders, and redistribution of wealth among individuals. Network effects are investigated in the interaction of economic agents. The book also describes how to model phenomena like cooperation and emergence of consensus. The book will be of benefit to graduate students and researchers in both Physics and Economics.