Download or read book Stochastic Loss Reserving Using Generalized Linear Models written by Greg Taylor and published by . This book was released on 2016-05-04 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this monograph, authors Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire discuss generalized linear models (GLM) for loss reserving, beginning with strong emphasis on the chain ladder. The chain ladder is formulated in a GLM context, as is the statistical distribution of the loss reserve. This structure is then used to test the need for departure from the chain ladder model and to consider natural extensions of the chain ladder model that lend themselves to the GLM framework.
Download or read book Claim Models written by Greg Taylor and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-04-15 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of articles addresses the most modern forms of loss reserving methodology: granular models and machine learning models. New methodologies come with questions about their applicability. These questions are discussed in one article, which focuses on the relative merits of granular and machine learning models. Others illustrate applications with real-world data. The examples include neural networks, which, though well known in some disciplines, have previously been limited in the actuarial literature. This volume expands on that literature, with specific attention to their application to loss reserving. For example, one of the articles introduces the application of neural networks of the gated recurrent unit form to the actuarial literature, whereas another uses a penalized neural network. Neural networks are not the only form of machine learning, and two other papers outline applications of gradient boosting and regression trees respectively. Both articles construct loss reserves at the individual claim level so that these models resemble granular models. One of these articles provides a practical application of the model to claim watching, the action of monitoring claim development and anticipating major features. Such watching can be used as an early warning system or for other administrative purposes. Overall, this volume is an extremely useful addition to the libraries of those working at the loss reserving frontier.
Download or read book Bayesian Claims Reserving Methods in Non life Insurance with Stan written by Guangyuan Gao and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book first provides a review of various aspects of Bayesian statistics. It then investigates three types of claims reserving models in the Bayesian framework: chain ladder models, basis expansion models involving a tail factor, and multivariate copula models. For the Bayesian inferential methods, this book largely relies on Stan, a specialized software environment which applies Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method and variational Bayes.
Download or read book Claims Reserving in General Insurance written by David Hindley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-10-26 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a single comprehensive reference source covering the key material on this subject, and describing both theoretical and practical aspects.
Download or read book Stochastic Claims Reserving Methods in Insurance written by Mario V. Wüthrich and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Claims reserving is central to the insurance industry. Insurance liabilities depend on a number of different risk factors which need to be predicted accurately. This prediction of risk factors and outstanding loss liabilities is the core for pricing insurance products, determining the profitability of an insurance company and for considering the financial strength (solvency) of the company. Following several high-profile company insolvencies, regulatory requirements have moved towards a risk-adjusted basis which has lead to the Solvency II developments. The key focus in the new regime is that financial companies need to analyze adverse developments in their portfolios. Reserving actuaries now have to not only estimate reserves for the outstanding loss liabilities but also to quantify possible shortfalls in these reserves that may lead to potential losses. Such an analysis requires stochastic modeling of loss liability cash flows and it can only be done within a stochastic framework. Therefore stochastic loss liability modeling and quantifying prediction uncertainties has become standard under the new legal framework for the financial industry. This book covers all the mathematical theory and practical guidance needed in order to adhere to these stochastic techniques. Starting with the basic mathematical methods, working right through to the latest developments relevant for practical applications; readers will find out how to estimate total claims reserves while at the same time predicting errors and uncertainty are quantified. Accompanying datasets demonstrate all the techniques, which are easily implemented in a spreadsheet. A practical and essential guide, this book is a must-read in the light of the new solvency requirements for the whole insurance industry.
Download or read book Machine Learning in Insurance written by Jens Perch Nielsen and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning is a relatively new field, without a unanimous definition. In many ways, actuaries have been machine learners. In both pricing and reserving, but also more recently in capital modelling, actuaries have combined statistical methodology with a deep understanding of the problem at hand and how any solution may affect the company and its customers. One aspect that has, perhaps, not been so well developed among actuaries is validation. Discussions among actuaries’ “preferred methods” were often without solid scientific arguments, including validation of the case at hand. Through this collection, we aim to promote a good practice of machine learning in insurance, considering the following three key issues: a) who is the client, or sponsor, or otherwise interested real-life target of the study? b) The reason for working with a particular data set and a clarification of the available extra knowledge, that we also call prior knowledge, besides the data set alone. c) A mathematical statistical argument for the validation procedure.
Download or read book Actuarial Sciences and Quantitative Finance written by Jaime A. Londoño and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-24 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed from the Second International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, this volume showcases the latest progress in all theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance. Held at the Universidad de Cartagena in Cartegena, Colombia in June 2016, the conference emphasized relations between industry and academia and provided a platform for practitioners to discuss problems arising from the financial and insurance industries in the Andean and Caribbean regions. Based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected papers, these proceedings address topics such as statistical techniques in finance and actuarial science, portfolio management, risk theory, derivative valuation and economics of insurance.
Download or read book Using the ODP Bootstrap Model written by Mark R. Shapland and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Non Life Insurance Pricing with Generalized Linear Models written by Esbjörn Ohlsson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-03-18 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Non-life insurance pricing is the art of setting the price of an insurance policy, taking into consideration varoius properties of the insured object and the policy holder. Introduced by British actuaries generalized linear models (GLMs) have become today a the standard aproach for tariff analysis. The book focuses on methods based on GLMs that have been found useful in actuarial practice and provides a set of tools for a tariff analysis. Basic theory of GLMs in a tariff analysis setting is presented with useful extensions of standarde GLM theory that are not in common use. The book meets the European Core Syllabus for actuarial education and is written for actuarial students as well as practicing actuaries. To support reader real data of some complexity are provided at www.math.su.se/GLMbook.
Download or read book Loss Reserving written by Gregory Taylor and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All property and casualty insurers are required to carry out loss reserving as a statutory accounting function. Thus, loss reserving is an essential sphere of activity, and one with its own specialized body of knowledge. While few books have been devoted to the topic, the amount of published research literature on loss reserving has almost doubled in size during the last fifteen years. Greg Taylor's book aims to provide a comprehensive, state-of-the-art treatment of loss reserving that reflects contemporary research advances to date. Divided into two parts, the book covers both the conventional techniques widely used in practice, and more specialized loss reserving techniques employing stochastic models. Part I, Deterministic Models, covers very practical issues through the abundant use of numerical examples that fully develop the techniques under consideration. Part II, Stochastic Models, begins with a chapter that sets up the additional theoretical material needed to illustrate stochastic modeling. The remaining chapters in Part II are self-contained, and thus can be approached independently of each other. A special feature of the book is the use throughout of a single real life data set to illustrate the numerical examples and new techniques presented. The data set illustrates most of the difficult situations presented in actuarial practice. This book will meet the needs for a reference work as well as for a textbook on loss reserving.
Download or read book Contemporary Trends and Challenges in Finance written by Krzysztof Jajuga and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-04-29 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains a selection of the contributions presented at the conference. The articles reflect the extent, diversity and richness of research areas in the field, both fundamental and applied finance. The target audience of these proceedings includes researchers at universities and research and policy institutions, graduate students and practitioners in economics, finance and international economics in private or government institutions.
Download or read book Cyber Physical Systems Intelligent Models and Algorithms written by Alla G. Kravets and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-03-29 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is devoted to intelligent models and algorithms as the core components of cyber-physical systems. The complexity of cyber-physical systems developing and deploying requires new approaches to its modelling and design. Presents results in the field of modelling technologies that leverage the exploitation of artificial intelligence, including artificial general intelligence (AGI) and weak artificial intelligence. Provides scientific, practical, and methodological approaches based on bio-inspired methods, fuzzy models and algorithms, predictive modelling, computer vision and image processing. The target audience of the book are practitioners, enterprises representatives, scientists, PhD and Master students who perform scientific research or applications of intelligent models and algorithms in cyber-physical systems for various domains.
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-02 with total page 2163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.
Download or read book Pricing in General Insurance written by Pietro Parodi and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-05-02 with total page 739 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on the syllabus of the actuarial profession courses on general insurance pricing – with additional material inspired by the author’s own experience as a practitioner and lecturer – Pricing in General Insurance, Second Edition presents pricing as a formalised process that starts with collecting information about a particular policyholder or risk and ends with a commercially informed rate. The first edition of the book proved very popular among students and practitioners with its pragmatic approach, informal style, and wide-ranging selection of topics, including: Background and context for pricing Process of experience rating, ranging from traditional approaches (burning cost analysis) to more modern approaches (stochastic modelling) Exposure rating for both property and casualty products Specialised techniques for personal lines (e.g., GLMs), reinsurance, and specific products such as credit risk and weather derivatives General-purpose techniques such as credibility, multi-line pricing, and insurance optimisation The second edition is a substantial update on the first edition, including: New chapter on pricing models: their structure, development, calibration, and maintenance New chapter on rate change calculations and the pricing cycle Substantially enhanced treatment of exposure rating, increased limit factors, burning cost analysis Expanded treatment of triangle-free techniques for claim count development Improved treatment of premium building and capital allocation Expanded treatment of machine learning Enriched treatment of rating factor selection, and the inclusion of generalised additive models The book delivers a practical introduction to all aspects of general insurance pricing and is aimed at students of general insurance and actuarial science as well as practitioners in the field. It is complemented by online material, such as spreadsheets which implement the techniques described in the book, solutions to problems, a glossary, and other appendices – increasing the practical value of the book.
Download or read book Statistical Modelling in GLIM written by Murray A. Aitkin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis of data by statistical modelling is becoming increasingly important. This book presents both the theory of statistical modelling with generalized linear models and the application of the theory to practical problems using the widely available package GLIM. The authors have takenpains to integrate the theory with many practical examples which illustrate the value of interactive statistical modelling. Throughout the book theoretical issues of formulating and simplifying models are discussed, as are problems of validating the models by the detection of outliers and influential observations. The book arises from short courses given at the University of Lancaster's Centre for Applied Statistics, with an emphasis on practical programming in GLIM and numerous examples. A wide range of case studies is provided, using the normal, binomial, Poisson, multinomial, gamma, exponential andWeibull distributions. A feature of the book is a detailed discussion of survival analysis. Statisticians working in a wide range of fields, including biomedical and social sciences, will find this book an invaluable desktop companion to aid their statistical modelling. It will also provide a text for students meeting the ideas of statistical modelling for the first time.
Download or read book Modern Problems of Stochastic Analysis and Statistics written by Vladimir Panov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-21 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest findings in the area of stochastic analysis and statistics. The individual chapters cover a wide range of topics from limit theorems, Markov processes, nonparametric methods, acturial science, population dynamics, and many others. The volume is dedicated to Valentin Konakov, head of the International Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications on the occasion of his 70th birthday. Contributions were prepared by the participants of the international conference of the international conference “Modern problems of stochastic analysis and statistics”, held at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow from May 29 - June 2, 2016. It offers a valuable reference resource for researchers and graduate students interested in modern stochastics.
Download or read book A Risky Business written by Catrin Townsend and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-24 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intangible, invisible and worth trillions, risk is everywhere. Its quantification and management are key to the success and failure of individuals, businesses and governments. Whether you’re an interested observer or pursuing a career in risk, this book delves into the complex and multi-faceted work that actuaries undertake to quantify, manage and commodify risk—supporting our society and servicing a range of multi-billion-dollar industries. Starting at the most basic level, this book introduces key concepts in actuarial science, insurance and pensions. Through case studies, explanations and mathematical examples, it fosters an understanding of current industry practice. This book celebrates the long history of actuarial science and poses the problems facing actuaries in the future, exploring complex global risks including climate change, aging populations, healthcare models and pandemic epidemiology from an actuarial perspective. It gives practical advice for new and potential actuaries on how to identify an area of work to go into, how best to navigate (and pass!) actuarial exams and how to develop your skills post-qualification. A Risky Business illuminates how actuaries are central to society as we know it, revealing what they do and how they do it. It is the essential primer on actuarial science.
