Download or read book Statistical Aspects of ENSO Events 1950 1997 and the El Nino Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Statistical Aspects of Enso Events 1950 1997 and the El Nino Atlantic Intense Hurricane Activity Relationship written by National Aeronautics and Space Adm Nasa and published by Independently Published. This book was released on 2018-10-21 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino (or La Nina), one can precisely identify by month and year the starts and ends of some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997, an interval corresponding to the most reliable for cataloging intense hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin (i.e., those of category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale). The main purpose of this investigation is primarily two-fold: First, the statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (called "interludes") are examined and, second, the statistics of the seasonal frequency of intense hurricanes in comparison to the extremes and interludes are determined. This study clearly demonstrates that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42 percent) can be described as being "El Nino-related" (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season--June-November), 13 (27 percent) as "La Nina-related" (i.e., a La Nina was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season), and 15 (31 percent) as "interlude-related" (i.e., neither an El Nino nor a La Nina was in progress during any portion of the yearly hurricane season). Combining the latter two subgroups into a single grouping called "non-El Nino-related" seasons, one finds that they have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8 events per season, while the El Nino-related seasons have had a mean frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3 events per season, where the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8-percent level of confidence. Therefore, as previously shown more than a decade ago using a different data set, there undeniably exists an El Nino-Atlantic hurricane activity relationship, one which also extends to the class of intense hurricanes. During the interval of ...
Download or read book On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Niño 3.4 region (5° N.-5° S., 120°-170° W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Niño and 10 La Niña, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing show that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's especially for El Niño, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Niño and La Niña looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Niño and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Niña, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Niño, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Niño are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (or longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Niño occured in 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Niño is not expected until February 2000 or later.
Download or read book El Ni o During the 1990 s written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today, El Niño refers to the extreme warming episodes of the globally effective coupled ocean-atmospheric interaction commonly known as ENSO (i.e., "El Nino-Southern Oscillation"). Concerning its observed decadal frequency and severity, El Nino during the 1990's has often been regarded as being anomalous. Results of analysis herein however, appear to mitigate this belief.
Download or read book El Ni o and the Southern Oscillation written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-11-09 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a recurrent feature of the climate in tropical regions. In this volume leading experts summarize information gained over the past decade concerning diverse aspects of ENSO, which have led to marked improvements in our ability to forecast its development months or seasons in advance. This volume compares ENSO's modern morphology and variability with its recent historic and prehistoric behaviour. It expands and updates Diaz and Markgraf's earlier volume El Niño: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (1992, Cambridge University Press). The volume will be of importance to a broad range of scientists in meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, geosciences, ecology, public health, emergency management response and mitigation, and decision-making. It will also be used as a supplementary textbook and reference source in graduate courses in environmental studies.
Download or read book El Ni o Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate written by Michael J. McPhaden and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.
Download or read book Decadal Trends of Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones 1950 1999 written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Deciphering the Long Term Trend of Atlantic Basin Intense Hurricanes More Active Versus Less Active During the Present Epoch written by Robert M. Wilson and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book El Ni o written by Henry F. Diaz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1992 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 1993 book enhances our understanding of the mechanisms involved in the low frequency behavior of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.
Download or read book Monthly Catalog of United States Government Publications written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 768 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book FY 1999 Scientific and Technical Reports Articles Papers and Presentations written by J.oyce E.Turner Waits and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book El Ni o 1997 1998 written by Stanley A. Changnon and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-04-06 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book will cover the time span from the first indications of El Nino (May 1997) until its reversal (June 1998). The focus will be largely on the United States, where El Nino produced widespread changes in how the public perceives weather and in the accuracy of forecasts Among the key issues it will examine are how the news media interpreted and dramatixed El Nino and the reaction both of the public and decision-makers (the latter based on interviews with agribusiness, utilities, water management agencies, etc.); the scientific issues emerging from the event; and the social and economic consequences of the event. Finally, it will suggest what can and should be done when El Nino occurs in the future.
Download or read book An Introduction to the Dynamics of El Nino and the Southern Oscillation written by Allan J. Clarke and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2008-01-28 with total page 326 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many scientists either working on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) problem or its many applications have not been trained in both the equatorial ocean and atmospheric dynamics necessary to understand it. This book seeks to overcome this difficulty by providing a step by step introduction to ENSO, helping the upper level graduate student or research scientist to learn quickly the ENSO basics and be up to date with the latest ENSO research. The text assumes that the reader has a knowledge of the equations of fluid mechanics on a rotating earth and emphasizes the observations and simple physical explanations of them. Following a history of ENSO and a discussion of ENSO observations in Chapters 1 and 2, Chapters 3-5 consider relevant equatorial ocean dynamics, Chapters 6 and 9 relevant atmospheric dynamics, and Chapters 7 and 8 the main paradigms for how the Pacific Ocean and atmosphere couple together to produce ENSO. Chapter 8 also discusses the old mystery of why ENSO tends to be locked in phase with the seasonal cycle. Successful dynamical and statistical approaches to ENSO prediction are discussed in Chapters 10 and 11 while Chapter 12 concludes the book with examples of how ENSO influences marine and bird life. Quick reference guide and step by step introduction to El Niño/Southern Oscillation dynamics Keep informed and up to date on El Niño/Southern Oscillation research and how El Niño and the Southern Oscillation can be predicted Understand how El Niño can affect marine and bird life
Download or read book El Ni o written by A. M. Babkina and published by Nova Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term El Niño (Spanish for "the Christ Child") was originally used by fishermen along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru to refer to a warm ocean current that typically appears around Christmastime and lasts for several months. Fish are less abundant during these warm intervals, yet in some years, however, the water is especially warm and the break in the fishing season persists into May or even June. El Niño also brings heavy rains. During the past 40 years, nine El Niños have affected the South American coast. Most of them raised water temperatures not only along the coast, but also at the Galapagos islands and in a belt stretching 5000 miles across the equatorial Pacific. The weaker events raised sea temperatures only by one to two degrees Fahrenheit, but the strong ones, like the El Niño of 1982-83, left an imprint, not only upon the local weather and marine life, but also on climatic conditions around the globe. This book includes a detailed overview and bibliography with complete title, author and subject indexes.
Download or read book Enso Influence on Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Regional Landfall Counts written by Kyle Imhoff and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A climatological analysis investigates Atlantic basin tropical cyclone tracks and landfall patterns and their connections to synoptic patterns and the phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Thirty-three years (1979-2011) of tropical cyclone activity are examined using storm positions from the North Atlantic Hurricane Database. The ENSO phase is determined by the Oceanic Nino Index, and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns are analyzed using the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 dataset. A cluster analysis technique, called self-organizing maps, is performed on the MSLP patterns across the North Atlantic Basin at the time when tropical cyclones made landfall. From this technique, statistical comparisons are made between landfall patterns during each ENSO phase and a computed climatological average for each cluster. Results of this analysis indicate that two distinct high pressure centers are present during La Nina events -- one center over the subtropical Atlantic and one over the central United States (US). Only one large high pressure center is present over the Atlantic during El Nino events. Because of these pressure patterns, during La Nina events when more tropical cyclones are favored to form over the Atlantic Basin, greater increases in landfall probabilities exist for Canada and Central America than in the US. During El Nino events when tropical cyclones are less likely to form, smaller decreases in landfall probabilities exist for the US than for Canada and Central America. Thus, landfall activity in the US is less influenced by the ENSO phase than the remainder of the continent.
Download or read book The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-30 with total page 755 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Download or read book On the Statistics of El Nino Occurrences and the Relationship of El Nino to Volcanic and Solar Geomagnetic Activity written by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-07-10 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986. Wilson, Robert M. Marshall Space Flight Center...
