Download or read book Staff Studies for the World Econ Outlook August 1987 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the long-term growth performance of the major industrial countries and discusses some of the many factors that have been identified as possible sources of the marked slowdown in growth since the early 1970s. According to the view of different demographic developments across countries, it is useful to break the growth of output down into changes in tabor input and changes in labor productivity in order to obtain a basis for cross-country comparisons. Wage behavior in the face of energy price shocks appears to have differed considerably among the major industrial countries. Increased uncertainty, reflecting, in particular, changes in the international economic environment and the stop-go financial policies of several of the major countries during the 1970s, and is frequently cited as a possible reason for the slowdown in growth, mainly through its impact on private investment. Views on the contribution of slower net capital accumulation to the deceleration in growth depend upon assessments of whether the efficiency of investment declined significantly after 1973 and on assumptions made about technological change and the embodiment of technical progress.
Download or read book Staff Studies for The World Economic Outlook written by and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
Download or read book World Econonomic and Financial Surveys 1987 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an assessment of trends in the international capital markets, including most notably recent market shocks to the financial system and developments in the debt situation. It also reviews the scope of progress achieved over the last few years in strengthening the financial system. Given the extensive changes that have taken place in domestic and international financial markets, the authorities in all industrial countries have begun to adapt their supervisory and regulatory framework to reflect better the new financial environment. These efforts acquired added importance with the recent financial market shocks. The outlook for lending to developing countries that have experienced payments difficulties has deteriorated during the past year. For most of these countries, the prospect for a resumption of spontaneous general purpose bank lending appears very limited. In gauging the vulnerability of the financial system, it should be borne in mind that adverse economic circumstances affecting sovereign loans could have a simultaneous, negative impact on domestic credit quality. In some countries, bank exposures to energy, agriculture, real estate, shipping, and elements of heavy industry remain problematic.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 1987 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1987-01-01 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that the first half of 1987 was characterized by considerable uncertainty about the world economic situation and prospects. Following a disappointing growth performance in industrial countries in 1986, and deterioration in the external financial position of many developing countries, signs of sluggishness in some indicators early in 1987 have given rise to concern that economic activity might weaken further in 1987 and next year. Such fears have been aggravated by the persistence of historically large imbalances on current account and increasing trade frictions.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook May 1993 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1993-05-30 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 1988 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-01-01 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that the performance of the world economy in the first half of 1988 has been considerably more satisfactory than was expected in the wake of the sharp stock market decline in October 1987. Output in industrial countries has grown strongly, world trade has been robust, and inflation appears to have remained under control. Moreover, the shifts in real trade flows induced by earlier exchange rate movements are at last beginning to have a visible effect on the payments imbalances of the three largest countries.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook October 1989 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that after two years of rapid growth in 1987 and 1988, there are now signs that the economic expansion in industrial countries is moderating to more sustainable rates. Inflation pressures have built up over 1988, reflecting high levels of resource utilization as well as certain temporary factors, but monetary conditions have been tightened substantially. Although the risk of a dangerous acceleration of inflation still exists, it appears to have diminished somewhat. Growth has also been strong in many developing countries, particularly exporters of manufactures.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 1988 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-01-01 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper describes developments in the world economy during 1987–88, and discusses considerations underlying the IMF staff’s short-term projections. The paper highlights that although the world economy is continuing to expand at a moderate pace, the persistence of large fiscal and external imbalances clouds the international economic outlook. An important positive development in 1987 was the strengthening of policy coordination among the major industrial countries. The paper assesses the policy issues facing the industrial countries, against the background of alternative scenarios of medium-term developments.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook May 1991 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that world economic growth is estimated to have declined from 31⁄4 percent in 1989 to 2 percent in 1990, reflecting a slowdown in the industrial countries and a fall in economic activity in developing countries of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Hemisphere. The growth of the world economy is expected to decline further in 1991 (to 11⁄4 percent) owing to the weakness of some industrial economies, and to further declines in output in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe.
Download or read book World Econonomic and Financial Surveys 1988 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-01-01 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the World Economic Outlook forecasting record for the principal performance indicators for the major industrial countries and corresponding aggregates and for groups of non-oil developing countries. Several criteria were used in evaluating the forecasts: the computation and evaluation of various summary statistics of forecast accuracy, bias, and efficiency; comparisons with alternative forecasts—naive forecasts and forecasts produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and by national forecasting agencies; the examination of turning-point errors and forecast performance in defined episodes; and, finally, some attempt to explain forecast error in terms of unanticipated developments in policy variables and oil prices. In judging the forecast performance of the World Economic Outlook, a number of points must be kept in mind. Most important, it has to be recognized that the period since the inception of the World Economic Outlook as a regular forecasting exercise has been extraordinarily rich in economic upheavals, which have made the odds against accurate forecasting formidable.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook April 1989 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights that the world economic condition improved significantly during 1988. In industrial countries, output growth strengthened markedly in an environment of moderate inflation. World trade expanded at its fastest rate since 1984, which had important spillover effects on many developing countries, particularly the exporters of manufactures; significant progress was made in reducing external imbalances among the major industrial countries; and the aggregate debt-to-exports ratio of developing countries was reduced. At the same time, several aspects of the current situation continue to demand the attention of policymakers.
Download or read book IMF Staff papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-01-01 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines market liberalization policies in a reforming socialist economy. The aim of this paper is to develop a model of such a reforming socialist economy and to explore the consequences of market-oriented policies in the context of such an economy. A model of a socialist economy is presented, incorporating bargaining over wages and employment in the socialized sector and shortages that are reflected in the black market. The model is used to analyze the implications of liberalization policies, including trade liberalization, an administered price increase, and provisions allowing for increased direct foreign investment. The nonsocialized sector is perfectly competitive and produces an output that is different from that of the socialized sector. It has a neoclassical production function using a sector-specific input (say, capital) and labor. The results suggest that reforms may have different effects under different trade regimes and that small price reforms may have perverse effects.
Download or read book 1989 World Economic and Financial Surveys written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper summarizes major measures taken in the international exchange and trade systems in 1988 and developments in exchange arrangements and the evolution of exchange rates. The exchange arrangements adopted by members since 1973 cover a broad spectrum of degrees of flexibility, from single-currency pegs to a freely floating system. Most countries have adopted arrangements that fall clearly into one or another of the major categories of the present classification system adopted by the IMF in 1982, and countries with dual markets usually have one market that is clearly more important than the other, which allows accurate classification by major market. Changes in IMF members' arrangements for their currencies during this decade have shown a distinct tendency to move toward more flexible arrangements and away from single-currency pegs, continuing a trend that began in the mid-1970s. A qualitative sense of the significance of the trend toward more flexible arrangements can be conveyed by the degree that world trade is affected by countries adopting different arrangements.
Download or read book World Economic and Financial Surveys written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-01-01 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper describes the functioning of labor markets and to eliminate other structural obstacles to noninflationary growth. The decline in the price level in the home country will involve a rise in the real money supply and, if output is sluggish, this will result in an excess supply of money. This, in turn, will lead to a drop in the domestic interest rate and, given foreign interest rates, to a temporary depreciation of the exchange rate. Structural measures could also affect investment and the current account by raising the rate of return on capital in the home country. If capital is internationally mobile, a higher rate of return on capital would result in a rise in investment and a temporary deterioration in the home country’s current account, which will be financed by an inflow of foreign capital. The quantitative impact of financial market deregulation on the economy is rather uncertain.
Download or read book Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF written by Mr.James M. Boughton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.
