Download or read book Optimal Mean Reversion Trading written by Tim Leung (Professor of industrial engineering) and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-11-26 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading: Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications provides a systematic study to the practical problem of optimal trading in the presence of mean-reverting price dynamics. It is self-contained and organized in its presentation, and provides rigorous mathematical analysis as well as computational methods for trading ETFs, options, futures on commodities or volatility indices, and credit risk derivatives. This book offers a unique financial engineering approach that combines novel analytical methodologies and applications to a wide array of real-world examples. It extracts the mathematical problems from various trading approaches and scenarios, but also addresses the practical aspects of trading problems, such as model estimation, risk premium, risk constraints, and transaction costs. The explanations in the book are detailed enough to capture the interest of the curious student or researcher, and complete enough to give the necessary background material for further exploration into the subject and related literature. This book will be a useful tool for anyone interested in financial engineering, particularly algorithmic trading and commodity trading, and would like to understand the mathematically optimal strategies in different market environments."--

Download or read book Speed of Mean Reversion written by Rizwan Manzoor and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volatility is measured as a risk and plays vital role in many financial decisions. The central part of this study is to capture the existence of the volatility in the regional financial markets (Karachi, Bombay, China, Korea and Hong Kong) have been included and the sample of Jan 1,2007 to Dec 31,2009 taken for the testing. The volatility and its stylized facts were under consideration by using ARCH and GARCH (1,1) that are very common to use to grab the volatility and they are also known as symmetric volatility model. The GARCH (1,1) has been applied and found that the financial time series of the regional markets has the volatility and it stylized facts, speed of mean reversion, fat tail and one half-life reverting to it mean satisfactorily.

Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of Electricity and Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives. This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. OrnsteinOCoUhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice. Sample Chapter(s). A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets (331 KB). Contents: A Survey of Electricity and Related Markets; Stochastic Analysis for Independent Increment Processes; Stochastic Models for the Energy Spot Price Dynamics; Pricing of Forwards and Swaps Based on the Spot Price; Applications to the Gas Markets; Modeling Forwards and Swaps Using the HeathOCoJarrowOCoMorton Approach; Constructing Smooth Forward Curves in Electricity Markets; Modeling of the Electricity Futures Market; Pricing and Hedging of Energy Options; Analysis of Temperature Derivatives. Readership: Researchers in energy and commodity markets, and mathematical finance.

Download or read book Algorithmic Trading written by Ernie Chan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-28 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Algorithmic TRADING “Algorithmic Trading is an insightful book on quantitative trading written by a seasoned practitioner. What sets this book apart from many others in the space is the emphasis on real examples as opposed to just theory. Concepts are not only described, they are brought to life with actual trading strategies, which give the reader insight into how and why each strategy was developed, how it was implemented, and even how it was coded. This book is a valuable resource for anyone looking to create their own systematic trading strategies and those involved in manager selection, where the knowledge contained in this book will lead to a more informed and nuanced conversation with managers.” —DAREN SMITH, CFA, CAIA, FSA, Managing Director, Manager Selection & Portfolio Construction, University of Toronto Asset Management “Using an excellent selection of mean reversion and momentum strategies, Ernie explains the rationale behind each one, shows how to test it, how to improve it, and discusses implementation issues. His book is a careful, detailed exposition of the scientific method applied to strategy development. For serious retail traders, I know of no other book that provides this range of examples and level of detail. His discussions of how regime changes affect strategies, and of risk management, are invaluable bonuses.” —ROGER HUNTER, Mathematician and Algorithmic Trader

Download or read book Interest Rate Term Structure and Valuation Modeling written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-11-29 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This ultimate guide contains an excellent blend of theory and practice This comprehensive guide covers various aspects of model building for fixed income securities and derivatives. Filled with expert advice, valuable insights, and advanced modeling techniques, Interest Rate, Term Structure, and Valuation Modeling is a book that all institutional investors, portfolio managers, and risk professionals should have. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is proud to be the publisher of the esteemed Frank J. Fabozzi Series. Comprising nearly 100 titles-which include numerous bestsellers—The Frank J. Fabozzi Series is a key resource for finance professionals and academics, strategists and students, and investors. The series is overseen by its eponymous editor, whose expert instruction and presentation of new ideas have been at the forefront of financial publishing for over twenty years. His successful career has provided him with the knowledge, insight, and advice that has led to this comprehensive series. Frank J. Fabozzi, PhD, CFA, CPA, is Editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management, which is read by thousands of institutional investors, as well as editor or author of over 100 books on finance for the professional and academic markets. Currently, Dr. Fabozzi is an adjunct Professor of Finance at Yale University's School of Management and on the board of directors of the Guardian Life family of funds and the Black Rock complex of funds.

Download or read book The Fascination of Probability Statistics and their Applications written by Mark Podolskij and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-26 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Collecting together twenty-three self-contained articles, this volume presents the current research of a number of renowned scientists in both probability theory and statistics as well as their various applications in economics, finance, the physics of wind-blown sand, queueing systems, risk assessment, turbulence and other areas. The contributions are dedicated to and inspired by the research of Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen who, since the early 1960s, has been and continues to be a very active and influential researcher working on a wide range of important problems. The topics covered include, but are not limited to, econometrics, exponential families, Lévy processes and infinitely divisible distributions, limit theory, mathematical finance, random matrices, risk assessment, statistical inference for stochastic processes, stochastic analysis and optimal control, time series, and turbulence. The book will be of interest to researchers and graduate students in probability, statistics and their applications.

Download or read book Testing Mean Reversion in Stock Market Volatility written by Turan G. Bali and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comprehensive study of continuous time GARCH modeling with the thin-tailed normal and the fat-tailed Student-t and generalized error distributions. The paper measures the degree of mean reversion in stock return volatility based on the relationship between discrete time GARCH and continuous time diffusion models. The convergence results based on the aforementioned distribution functions are shown to have similar implications for testing mean reversion in stochastic volatility. Alternative models are compared in terms of their ability to capture mean-reverting behavior of stock return volatility. The empirical evidence obtained from several stock market indices indicates that the conditional variance, log-variance, and standard deviation of stock market returns are pulled back to some long-run average level over time.

Download or read book Equity Hybrid Derivatives written by Marcus Overhaus and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-02-02 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Take an in-depth look at equity hybrid derivatives. Written by the quantitative research team of Deutsche Bank, the world leader in innovative equity derivative transactions, this book presents leading-edge thinking in modeling, valuing, and hedging for this market, which is increasingly used for investment by hedge funds. You'll gain a balanced, integrated presentation of theory and practice, with an emphasis on understanding new techniques for analyzing volatility and credit derivative transactions linked to equity. In every instance, theory is illustrated along with practical application. Marcus Overhaus, PhD, is Managing Director and Global Head of Quantitative Research and Equity Structuring. Ana Bermudez, PhD, is an Associate in Global Quantitative Research. Hans Buehler, PhD, is a Vice President in Global Quantitative Research. Andrew Ferraris, DPhil, is a Managing Director in Global Quantitative Research. Christopher Jordinson, PhD, is a Vice President in Global Quantitative Research. Aziz Lamnouar, DEA, is a Vice President in Global Quantitative Research. All are associated with Deutsche Bank AG, London.

Download or read book Way of the Turtle The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders written by Curtis Faith and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2007-03-30 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “We're going to raise traders just like they raise turtles in Singapore.” So trading guru Richard Dennis reportedly said to his long-time friend William Eckhardt nearly 25 years ago. What started as a bet about whether great traders were born or made became a legendary trading experiment that, until now, has never been told in its entirety. Way of the Turtle reveals, for the first time, the reasons for the success of the secretive trading system used by the group known as the “Turtles.” Top-earningTurtle Curtis Faith lays bare the entire experiment, explaining how it was possible for Dennis and Eckhardt to recruit 23 ordinary people from all walks of life and train them to be extraordinary traders in just two weeks. Only nineteen years old at the time-the youngest Turtle by far-Faith traded the largest account, making more than $30 million in just over four years. He takes you behind the scenes of the Turtle selection process and behind closed doors where the Turtles learned the lucrative trading strategies that enabled them to earn an average return of over 80 percent per year and profits of more than $100 million. You'll discover How the Turtles made money-the principles that guided their trading and the step-by-step methods they followed Why, even though they used the same approach, some Turtles were more successful than others How to look beyond the rules as the Turtles implemented them to find core strategies that work for any tradable market How to apply the Turtle Way to your own trades-and in your own life Ways to diversify your trading and limit your exposure to risk Offering his unique perspective on the experience, Faith explains why the Turtle Way works in modern markets, and shares hard-earned wisdom on taking risks, choosing your own path, and learning from your mistakes.

Download or read book 25K Options Trading Challenge Second Edition written by Nishant Pant and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-22 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Second Edition - Now includes money management rules, earnings trades and stock selection tipsThe annual $25k challenge, takes an initial sum of $2,500 and grows it into $25,000 in 1 year or less in the Stock Market. We do this by combining the leverage provided by Options trading strategies with Technical Analysis. If you are a beginning, intermediate or advanced Options Trader, this book is for you. It cuts all the fluff around investing and shows you few simple strategies, which can amplify your Stock Market returns. In this book you will learn: NEW: Finding the right stocks for the $25K Options Challenge. NEW: Money management techniques so you don't get wiped out in the next Stock Market correction. NEW: Techniques to participate in earnings while avoiding the binary outcome of these events. How to become a winner in the stock market by spotting the right trading opportunities. A simple strategy, that keeps doubling your money over and over again. How to defeat the novice Option trader's lottery ticket mentality. A strategy to overcome the premium buyer's greatest enemies, Theta and Implied Volatility. How to use simple Technical Analysis techniques to spot the right entry points for your trades. Live Trade examples elaborating all the concepts in this book. Come join us on our website to learn more and view our live trades.

Download or read book Is Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion Caused by Arbitrage written by José Campa and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of purchasing power parity is often attributed to the exploitation of arbitrage opportunities in goods markets. We examine this presumption for a 1960-1996 monthly panel of bilateral exchange rates and trade for the G7 countries. The data exhibit strong mean reversion. However, despite allowing for substantial latitude in specification, we find very limited support for a simple arbitrage view. The deviations of real exchange rates and trade from trend are virtually uncorrelated. Large trade deviations neither trigger nor accelerate mean reversion. Large real exchange rate deviations do not lead to systematic changes in trade. Constricting the sample to eighteen-month episodes of notable mean reversion - large persistent depreciations starting from overvalued levels - does not reveal any systematic relation either. The timing of these episodes does point, however, to an alternative explanation of mean reversion: the majority of episodes occur during periods of nominal exchange rate regime instability, pointing towards exchange rate policy or speculation as the immediate cause of mean reversion. Both may, of course, reflect expectations of trade responses, opening an indirect role for incipient arbitrage in explaining mean reversion.

Download or read book Pricing of Derivatives on Mean Reverting Assets written by Björn Lutz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-09-19 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topic of this book is the development of pricing formulae for European style derivatives on assets with mean-reverting behavior, especially commodity derivatives.

Download or read book Stochastic Modeling Of Electricity And Related Markets written by Fred Espen Benth and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008-04-14 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The markets for electricity, gas and temperature have distinctive features, which provide the focus for countless studies. For instance, electricity and gas prices may soar several magnitudes above their normal levels within a short time due to imbalances in supply and demand, yielding what is known as spikes in the spot prices. The markets are also largely influenced by seasons, since power demand for heating and cooling varies over the year. The incompleteness of the markets, due to nonstorability of electricity and temperature as well as limited storage capacity of gas, makes spot-forward hedging impossible. Moreover, futures contracts are typically settled over a time period rather than at a fixed date. All these aspects of the markets create new challenges when analyzing price dynamics of spot, futures and other derivatives.This book provides a concise and rigorous treatment on the stochastic modeling of energy markets. Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes are described as the basic modeling tool for spot price dynamics, where innovations are driven by time-inhomogeneous jump processes. Temperature futures are studied based on a continuous higher-order autoregressive model for the temperature dynamics. The theory presented here pays special attention to the seasonality of volatility and the Samuelson effect. Empirical studies using data from electricity, temperature and gas markets are given to link theory to practice.

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices written by Rafal Weron and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Download or read book Fixed Income Relative Value Analysis written by Doug Huggins and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As western governments issue increasing amounts of debt, the fixed income markets have never been more important. Yet the methods for analyzing these markets have failed to keep pace with recent developments, including the deterioration in the credit quality of many sovereign issuers. In Fixed Income Relative Value Analysis, Doug Huggins and Christian Schaller address this gap with a set of analytic tools for assessing value in the markets for government bonds, interest rate swaps, and related basis swaps, as well as associated futures and options. Taking a practitioner’s point of view, the book presents the theory behind market analysis in connection with tools for finding and expressing trade ideas. The extensive use of actual market examples illustrates the ways these analytic tools can be applied in practice. The book covers: Statistical models for quantitative market analysis, in particular mean reversion models and principal component analysis. An in-depth approach to understanding swap spreads in theory and in practice. A comprehensive discussion of the various basis swaps and their combinations. The incorporation of credit default swaps in yield curve analysis. A classification of option trades, with appropriate analysis tools for each category. Fitted curve techniques for identifying relative value among different bonds. A multi-factor delivery option model for bond future contracts. Fixed Income Relative Value Analysis provides an insightful presentation of the relevant statistical and financial theories, a detailed set of statistical and financial tools derived from these theories, and a multitude of actual trades resulting from the application of these tools to the fixed income markets. As such, it’s an indispensable guide for relative value analysts, relative value traders, and portfolio managers for whom security selection and hedging are part of the investment process.

Download or read book 3d Extreme Value Analysis for Stock Return Interest Rate and Speed of Mean Reversion written by Burhaneddin İzgi and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is important to analyze extreme cases of stock return, interest rate and speed of mean reversion together. While we explore strengths and limitations of Heston stochastic volatility model based on behavior of its numerical solutions using Milstein method simulations, we suggest model improvements in the light of real data applications. First, we perform high peak and fat-tail analysis for the impact of Heston model parameters on the simulations of the extreme situations by using the first four standardized moments and extreme value tools such as quantile-quantile (QQ), mean excess (ME) and Hill plots to examine the fat-tailness of the distributions. Later, we illustrate high peak and fat-tail analysis for BIST-100 index between 02 . 01 . 2004 and 17 . 06 . 2013. Moreover, we investigate 3D dynamics of the average logarithmic stock return, interest rate and speed of mean reversion variables, together. Furthermore, we believe that polarization and the transitions between polarizations and comovements are important part of extreme situation picture. We investigate comovement and polarization of interest rates and daily returns of BIST- 100 index between 2010 and 2013 in order to understand the corresponding behavioral dynamics. Heston stochastic volatility model predicts that the average logarithmic stock return increases as interest rate rises. Actually, we observe that there are also sufficiently large time intervals where interest rates were decreased and stock prices increased gradually in US stock markets and Borsa Istanbul, unlike the Heston stochastic volatility model suggests.

Download or read book Engineering Applications of Neural Networks written by Lazaros S. Iliadis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-09-25 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two volumes set, CCIS 383 and 384, constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Engineering Applications of Neural Networks, EANN 2013, held on Halkidiki, Greece, in September 2013. The 91 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers describe the applications of artificial neural networks and other soft computing approaches to various fields such as pattern recognition-predictors, soft computing applications, medical applications of AI, fuzzy inference, evolutionary algorithms, classification, learning and data mining, control techniques-aspects of AI evolution, image and video analysis, classification, pattern recognition, social media and community based governance, medical applications of AI-bioinformatics and learning.