Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-10-01 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.
Download or read book Speculative Attacks written by Mr.Guillermo Calvo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-01-01 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A brief survey of the literature on speculative attacks is provided. The nature and causes of balance-of-payments crises, the implications for the behavior of the current account and the real exchange rate are discussed. Also, potential areas for future research on balance-of-payments crises are suggested.
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises written by Pierre-Richard Agenor and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy discussed.
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of payments Crisis written by International Monetary Fund. Research Department and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises written by Ms.Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Download or read book Speculative attacks and models of balance of payments crises written by Pierre-Richard Agénor and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-09-01 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.
Download or read book Self Fulfilling Risk Predictions written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-08-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper shows that changing market beliefs about currency risk can generate a self-fulfilling speculative attack on a fixed exchange rate. The attack does not require a later change in policies to make it profitable. This is illustrated by introducing an endogenous risk premium into a “first-generation model” of a speculative attack. The model is further modified to take account of sterilization, debt-financed fiscal deficits, and anticipatory price-setting behavior. The model is used to interpret the 1994 Mexican peso crisis.
Download or read book Speculative Attacks written by Pablo E. Guidotti and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A brief survey of the literature on speculative attacks is provided. The nature and causes of balance-of-payments crises, the implications for the behavior of the current account and the real exchange rate are discussed. Also, potential areas for future research on balance-of-payments crises are suggested.
Download or read book Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises The Role of Early Warning Systems written by Mr.Eduardo Borensztein and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-01-24 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent years have witnessed an increase in the frequency of currency and balance of payments crises in developing countries. More important, the crises have become more virulent, have caused widespread disruption to other developing countries, and have even had repercussions on advanced economies. To predict crises, their causes must be clearly understood. Two competing strands of theories are reviewed in this paper. The first focuses on the consequences of such policies as excessive credit growth in provoking depletion of foreign exchange reserves and making a devaluation enevitable. The second emphasizes the trade-offs between internal and external balance that the policymaker faces in defending a peg.
Download or read book Currency Crises written by Olivier Jeanne and published by Princeton University International Finance Section, Department of Econmics. This book was released on 2000 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Second Thoughts on Second Moments written by Arturo J. Galindo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1998 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: June 1998 The evidence is broadly supportive of an asset view of speculative attacks and the importance of the variance of monetary aggregates in predicting currency crises, but it cast some doubt on existing theories. The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the European currency arrangements beginning in 1992, by the Mexican peso crisis and after-effects in 1994, and most recently by speculative attacks across Asia. One strand of this literature stresses the importance of imbalances in stocks of monetary and financial aggregates rather than traditional flow factors, arguing that massive, volatile capital flows have become a dominant feature of the global landscape, and that exchange-rate levels and current accounts have not proved convincing as proximate causes of crises. Galindo and Maloney test two popular asset-based models of speculative attacks-Krugman and Rotemberg (1992) and Calvo and Mendoza (1995)-especially their emphasis on the second moments of monetary aggregates. Analyzing monthly panels of appropriate countries in three regions, they find evidence for the importance of money/reserve ratios predicted by both models, and their variance as predicted by Calvo and Mendoza. But the variance of velocity does not appear to be important, casting some doubt on the Krugman-Rotemberg target zone framework and the interpretation of the Calvo-Mendoza results. This paper-a product of the Poverty and Economic Management Unit of the Latin America and the Caribbean Region-is part of a larger effort in the region to understand the determinants of macroeconomic instability. William Maloney may be contacted at [email protected].
Download or read book Studies in the Theory of Balance of payments Crises written by Alpo Willman and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Rationalised panics The consequences of strategic uncertainty during financial crisis written by Tijmen Roderik Danie͏̈ls and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises written by Juan Yepez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given the right fundamentals and the right models and are evaluated on how closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when fundamentals are explosive and all do badly when fundamentals are merely highly volatile.
Download or read book Currency Speculation in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes written by Anja Zenker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2014-01-08 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Speculative currency crises seem to have become a common and inevitable phenomenon in the international monetary system. Against this background, various approaches have been developed by economists to cover the broad range of situations in which balance-of-payments crises occurred. Anja Zenker provides a comprehensive insight into the body of theoretical and empirical literature about currency speculation in fixed exchange rate regimes. The author discusses different generations of theoretical models and their empirical relevance in recent currency crises. Moreover, she considers diverse policy options which attempt to avoid speculative attacks on exchange rate pegs.
Download or read book Financial Structure and Stability written by Alexander Karmann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-10-26 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic question of this book is what we can learn from empirical as well as theoretical analysis of financial systems, differing cross-sectional and changing structually over time, with respect to the issue of stability of financial systems. Part I of the book deals with stability issues in a globalizing financial world and addresses topics of convergence, domestic policy, financial bubbles, crises and international coordination. Part II is on banking systems. Country specific adoption and restructuring of (universal but also separation) banking systems are key problems for the industrialized economies, while catching-up is of major concern for the economies in transition. Feeble regional economies and subsidized banking is at the heart of the vivid dispute on public sector banking being taken up in Part III. The last Part is devoted to resource-oriented approaches in quantifiying financial development and risk of sovereign default.
