Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations written by Franz A. Hamann and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Keywords: Default, Business Cycles, Sovereign Risk.
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation investigates the properties of macroeconomic fluctuations in a small open economy under the presence of sovereign default risk. International borrowing and lending arise from the interaction between a risk averse sovereign representative agent in a small open economy trying to self insure against idiosyncratic shocks and risk neutral international lenders. The credit market is imperfect because the country cannot commit to repay its outstanding debt and chooses to default when it is optimal to do so. The possibility of default induces an endogenous sovereign risk premium on foreign debt and endogenous rationing by foreign creditors. The second chapter presents a simple model of sovereign risk that explains how default can de triggered by shocks that drive normal business cycles, albeit in the context of an endowment economy. The model features incomplete external financial markets and the inability of the sovereign country to commit to repay debts. These two features coupled with risk neutral international lenders generate an endogenous risk premium and an endogenous borrowing constraint that drive the dynamics of default. The model is calibrated to the Argentine economy. It is able to reproduce counter-cyclical country risk spreads, large capital outflows during Sudden Stops, and default. In a simple experiment conducted here, it is shown that by increasing trade sanctions to the artificial economy, it is possible to deter default but it is not possible to isolate the economy from the occurrence of Sudden Stops. Despite this, the welfare gains from eliminating default are very large: 7\% of steady state consumption. Using numerical methods, this paper also proposes an algorithm for the solution of this family of models that allows to generalize the results of Eaton and Gersovitz (1981) into environments with varying degrees of persistence and volatility in the underlying stochastic income process. In the third chapter the assumption of an endowmen.
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations written by Franz Alonso Hamann Salcedo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in an Emerging Market Economy written by Markus Kirchner and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Belief Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Belief Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area written by Giancarlo Corsetti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-11-06 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk premia in several euro area countries have risen markedly since 2008, driving up credit spreads in the private sector as well. We propose a New Keynesian model of a two-region monetary union that accounts for this “sovereign risk channel.” The model is calibrated to the euro area as of mid-2012. We show that a combination of sovereign risk in one region and strongly procyclical fiscal policy at the aggregate level exacerbates the risk of belief-driven deflationary downturns. The model provides an argument in favor of coordinated, asymmetric fiscal stances as a way to prevent selffulfilling debt crises.
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle written by Markus Kurt Kirchner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Sovereign Default Risk Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary fiscal Stabilization written by Markus Kirchner and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book This Changes Everything Climate Shocks and Sovereign Bonds written by Mr.Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change is already a systemic risk to the global economy. While there is a large body of literature documenting potential economic consequences, there is scarce research on the link between climate change and sovereign risk. This paper therefore investigates the impact of climate change vulnerability and resilience on sovereign bond yields and spreads in 98 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995–2017. We find that the vulnerability and resilience to climate change have a significant impact on the cost government borrowing, after controlling for conventional determinants of sovereign risk. That is, countries that are more resilient to climate change have lower bond yields and spreads relative to countries with greater vulnerability to risks associated with climate change. Furthermore, partitioning the sample into country groups reveals that the magnitude and statistical significance of these effects are much greater in developing countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises written by Michael Frenkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-08-11 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Download or read book Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis written by Ms.Silvia Sgherri and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the use of public resources is critical to cushion the impact of the financial crisis on the euro-area economy, it is key that the entailed fiscal costs not be seen by markets as undermining fiscal sustainability. From this perspective, to what extent do movements in euro area sovereign spreads reflect country-specific solvency concerns? In line with previous studies, the paper suggests that euro area sovereign risk premium differentials tend to comove over time and are mainly driven by a common time-varying factor, mimicking global risk repricing. Since October 2008, however, there is evidence that markets have become progressively more concerned about the potential fiscal implications of national financial sectors' frailty and future debt dynamics. The liquidity of sovereign bond markets still seems to play a significant (albeit fairly limited) role in explaining changes in euro area spreads.
Download or read book Growth External Debt and Sovereign Risk in a Small Open Economy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-06-23 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper constructs and analyzes an optimizing model of a highly-indebted small open economy. An important innovation in the model is the incorporation of sovereign risk through the specification of an upward-sloping foreign debt supply function. The model is used to examine the interaction between external debt and growth in response to various policies and exogenous disturbances. It is shown that structural policies intended to reduce the fiscal deficit or increase productivity can lead to tradeoffs in their effect on capital accumulation and the stock of debt.
Download or read book Global Financial Conditions Country Spreads and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Countries written by Ozge Akinci and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Download or read book Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies written by Ozge Akinci and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Banks Government Bonds and Default written by Nicola Gennaioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
