Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 2 Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Anthony J. Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Grahame Reader and published by . This book was released on 1999-09 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized& Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
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Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized & Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part II written by Lester E. Carr and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report continues the development of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting by Carr and Elsberry (1994) with specific application to the western Pacific region. Five years (1989-93) of 12-h Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses are examined for every tropical cyclone to establish a climatology of Environment Structure characterizations. Frequencies of the four Synoptic Patterns and the six Synoptic Regions are calculated, and characteristic tracks while in each of the Pattern/Region combinations are provided. A four-year subset of NOGAPS analyses is used in a reproducibility test in which three trainees attempted to achieve the same Environment Structure assignments as an experienced forecaster. Approximately 81% of the Synoptic Patterns, 86% of the Synoptic Regions, and 77% of the Pattern/Region combinations were correctly assigned by the trainees. However, certain Pattern/Region combinations were found to be poorly identified, which indicated a need for some new training materials. Approximately 81% of the Pattern/Region transitions to a correct or similar combination were detected by the trainees. About 72% of these correct/similar transitions were identified within + 12 h of the actual transition, and 88% were identified within + 24 h. Certain transitions were consistently missed, which again indicates a need for improved descriptions and training. Refinements of the Meteorological Knowledge Base of the Systematic Approach were made on the basis of the five year climatology and reproducibility test. These refinements, which are summarized in Chapter 4.9, include new transitional mechanisms associated with Monsoon Gyre Formation and Dissipation and Reverse oriented Trough Formation.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Mark A. Boothe and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized & Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Anthony Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in the application.
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Mark A. Booth and published by . This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990- 98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990-98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Anthony J. Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in theapplication.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part IV Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4 Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
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Download or read book Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Traits Knowledge Base for JTWC Track Forecast Models in the Western North Pacific written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All highly erroneous NOGAPS and GFDN track forecasts (72-h error> 300 n mi) in the western North Pacific during 1997 are examined and responsible error mechanisms are identified using the conceptual models of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base. An important and encouraging result of this research is that only six error mechanisms account for 84% (91 of 108) of the poor NOGAPS track forecasts, and only three error mechanisms account for 68% (61 of 90) of the poor GFDN track forecasts. The indications and characteristics of these frequently recurring error mechanisms in the forecast tracks and fields of the models are thoroughly documented and one or more illustrative case studies are provided for each error mechanism. This documentation is organized into a 5 level preliminary Model Traits Knowledge Base for use by TC forecasters when applying the Systematic Approach to formulate the official track forecast. The results of this research also provide model developers and researchers at FNMOC, NRL Monterey, and GFDL with specific information needed to improve the TC track forecasting performance of the NOGAPS and GFDN models.
