Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Grahame Reader and published by . This book was released on 1999-09 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized& Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 3 Updated Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized & Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Anthony J. Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in theapplication.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part IV Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Anthony Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The environment structure conceptual models of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting technique of Carr and Elsberry are applied to all Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones during January 1994 - June 1997. Whereas three of the four synoptic patterns from the western North Pacific could be applied with relatively small modifications, a new High (H) amplitude synoptic pattern was defined to classify the situations with large meridional penetrations of mid-latitude troughs deep into the Southern Hemisphere tropics. Some changes in terminology were required to describe the synoptic regions that have characteristic track directions. All 1592 cases during the period could be described by these four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Important track changes were found to be associated with transitions between these synoptic patterns and regions. Three binary tropical cyclone interactions defined for the Western North Pacific were adapted for use in the Southern Hemisphere with considerable success. A preliminary climatology of occurrences for the synoptic pattern/region combinations, ions, transitions between combinations, and binary tropical cyclone interactions are calculated. Sequences of synoptic analyses related to these transitions are described to aid in the application.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 2 Climatology and Refinement of Meteorological Knowledge Base written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Mark A. Boothe and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Meteorological knowledge base of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere has been updated to reflect a more global terminology. Examples of these new environment structures in operational (NOGAPS) analyses and tracks are given. Perhaps the most important conclusion is that all cases in the 1990-91 through 1998-1999 seasons could be classified into one of these 14 synoptic pattern/region combinations. The nine-year "climatology" of the occurrences of each of the 14 combinations is given for the South Indian and Pacific Oceans separately, and the characteristic tracks in each of these 14 combinations are provided. Some new transitional mechanisms between these combinations have also been defined. The importance of these transitions from one pattern/region combinations to another is that the TC track then also changes. The frequency of recurring (greater than three) transitions in this nine-year sample is summarized. Because the TC is at any time in only one pattern/region combination, the concern of the forecaster is on the possible transitions from that pattern/region. To assist the forecaster, the percentages of these transitions from each pattern/region combination are also summarized & Some of these transitions are clearly more favored than others, which is useful dance to the forecaster.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting written by Anthony J. Bannister and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The preliminary adaptation by Bannister et al. (1997) of the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasting meteorological knowledge base to the Southern Hemisphere has been extended to eight seasons (1990-91 through 1997-98), which includes 145 (90) cyclones in the South Indian (Pacific) region. A total of 3257 synoptic pattern/region classifications could be described in the context of only four synoptic patterns and 11 synoptic regions. Updated track summaries in each pattern/region combination, and the recurring (more than three) environment structure transitions are provided. Refinements in the set of TC-environment transitional mechanisms in the meteorological knowledge base include: (1) new Equatorial Westerly Wind Burst Mechanism; (2) new semi-direct TC interaction equatorward conceptual model; (3) additional variations of the Subtropical Ridge Modulation mechanisms; and (4) further cases of Vertical Wind Shear leading to dramatic TC track changes. These refinements are illustrated with case studies intended to assist the forecaster in recognizing these transitional mechanisms, and thus anticipating TC track changes in the Southern Hemisphere.
Download or read book Southern Hemisphere Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Part 4 Sources of Large Track Errors by Dynamical Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by Mark A. Booth and published by . This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990- 98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Atlantic Application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Part 1 Environmental Structure Characteristics written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Meteorological knowledge base for application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Atlantic basin follows from similar knowledge bases previously developed for the western North Pacific, the eastern and central North Pacific, and the Southern Hemisphere. A common environment structure terminology has been adopted in which three synoptic patterns (Standard, Poleward, and Midlatitude) are found in each of these basins. Each basin also has a special pattern, which in the Atlantic is the Upper-level low. The conceptual models for these synoptic patterns with their associated synoptic regions are described here via a conceptual model, analysis examples, and the characteristic track segments within each region. A climatology of occurrences in each patter/region for the 1568 cases during 1990-98 is prepared. The second key element in the knowledge base is the transitional mechanisms that change the environment structure and thus change the tropical cyclone steering flow. Conceptual models for these mechanisms are presented and illustrated with sequences of analyses. A climatology of recurring (at least four occurrences in nine years) transitions is prepared to indicate the most common track changes during these transitions.
Download or read book Condensed and Updated Version of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base written by Lester E. Carr and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The meteorological knowledge base for the Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cydone Track Forecasting proposed by Carr and Elsberry has evolved as additional research has been completed. This Systematic Approach has been applied in the eastern and central North Pacific, and in the Southern Hemisphere, a number of conceptual models have been refined and new terminology has been adopted to reflect global applicability. As a knowledge based expert system is being developed, it was convenient to condense and update the meteorological knowledge base for the western North Pacific. Thus, the material is presented with text on the left page and the corresponding figure on the facing page as it will appear on the computer screen.
Download or read book East Asian Monsoon written by Chih-Pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The East Asian summer monsoon has complex space and time structures that are distinct from the South Asian summer monsoon. It covers both subtropics and midlatitudes and its rainfall tends to be concentrated in rain belts that stretch for many thousands of kilometers and affect China, Japan, Korea, and the surrounding areas. The circulation of the East Asian winter monsoon encompasses a large meridional domain with cold air outbreaks emanating from the Siberian high and penetrates deeply into the equatorial Maritime Continent region, where the center of maximum rainfall has long been recognized as a major planetary scale heat source that provides a significant amount of energy which drives the global circulation during boreal winter. The East Asian summer monsoon is also closely linked with the West Pacific summer monsoon. Both are part of the global climate system and are affected by El Nino?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surface temperature variations in the western Pacific and surrounding oceans, the tropospheric biennial oscillation, and the South Asian summer monsoon. In addition, typhoons in the western North Pacific are most active during the East Asian summer monsoon. They may be considered as a component of the East Asian summer monsoon as they contribute substantial amounts of rainfall and have major impacts on the region. Because of its impacts on nearly one-third of the worldOCOs population and on the global climate system (including effects on the climate change), the study of the East Asian monsoon has received increased attention both in East Asian countries and in the United States. This book presents reviews of recent research on the subject."
Download or read book Condensed and Updated Version of the Systematic Approach Meteorological Knowledge Base Western North Pacific written by Lester E. Carr, III and published by . This book was released on 1997-12 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The meteorological knowledge base for the Systematic and Integrated Approach to Tropical Cydone Track Forecasting proposed by Carr and Elsberry has evolved as additional research has been completed. This Systematic Approach has been applied in the eastern and central North Pacific, and in the Southern Hemisphere, a number of conceptual models have been refined and new terminology has been adopted to reflect global applicability. As a knowledge based expert system is being developed, it was convenient to condense and update the meteorological knowledge base for the western North Pacific. Thus, the material is presented with text on the left page and the corresponding figure on the facing page as it will appear on the computer screen.
Download or read book 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction written by Jochen Zschau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 774 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written for a broad audience this book offers a comprehensive account of early warning systems for hydro meteorological disasters such as floods and storms, and for geological disasters such as earthquakes. One major theme is the increasingly important role in early warning systems played by the rapidly evolving fields of space and information technology. The authors, all experts in their respective fields, offer a comprehensive and in-depth insight into the current and future perspectives for early warning systems. The text is aimed at decision-makers in the political arena, scientists, engineers and those responsible for public communication and dissemination of warnings.
